AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH KEY SARKOZY ADVISOR FRANCOIS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 008606

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR SOCI FR EUN
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH KEY SARKOZY ADVISOR FRANCOIS
FILLON



1. (SBU) Summary: Sarkozy advisor and former Education
Minister Francois Fillon told the Ambassador December 20 that
Sarkozy had a chance to buck the French predisposition to
vote against the ruling party in 2007 by focusing his
presidential campaign on the electorate's deep-seated desire
for real "change." Fillon argued that the victor in 2007
would need to make the presidency more personally accountable
and involved in explaining government policy to the populace.
The EU, in Fillon's opinion, is struggling under the weight
of new members, and it was time to bring the UK into the
Franco-German union in order to move the body forward.
Fillon believed transatlantic relations would be more cordial
under a Sarkozy presidency; although disagreements would
certainly arise, they would be handled in a more nuanced
manner. Fillon elaborated on Sarkozy's plan to improve the
French economy through welfare reform and greater flexibility
for businesses, and offered his own views on needed changes
for the French education system. End Summary.

2007 Elections
--------------

2. (SBU) The Ambassador met December 20 with Francois
Fillon, former Minister of Education (2004-2005) and Social
Affairs, Labor, and Solidarity (2002-2004) in the Raffarin
government, who was named in July 2005 to be the Political
Counselor to Nicolas Sarkozy in his role as president of the
Union for a Popular Movement (UMP). Fillon noted the
instability of the French Fifth Republic compared to the
governments of Germany and the UK, and commented that the
French electorate always voted for change. This suggested
that the Socialist Party (PS) should logically win in 2007,
but Sarkozy had a chance because he was a strong proponent
for change, whereas the PS had turned into a party of
"restoration" of the status quo ante. He insisted that most
French voters really do want change, although he conceded
that they are also afraid of losing what they have. Chirac
always erred on the side of French fears rather than a desire
for change and Villepin's big liability would be that he is
seen as a continuation of Chirac. Sarkozy, by contrast, was
betting that people really wanted reform.


3. (SBU) Fillon believed that Sarkozy would remain in the
government until January of 2007, when the UMP would
officially nominate its presidential candidate, at which time
he would break with Chirac/Villepin to run for the
presidency. He said that Chirac and Villepin would do
everything possible in the meantime to trip him up. The
recent unrest in the suburbs had not hurt Sarkozy, Fillon
noted, because he was seen as taking action on the issue.
Fillon did not foresee a cohabitation government, saying,
"The people will choose a president and give him a majority"
in Parliament.

Institutional Reform
--------------

4. (SBU) Elaborating on his statement that the French Fifth
Republic is inherently "unstable," Fillon said there was a
need to move to a presidential system in which the president
would have to take a more active role in explaining the
government's actions to the people and the parliament. (The
only such public appearance by Chirac was his disastrous Town
Hall-style appearance in early May in favor of the EU
Constitution.) While there were also arguments in favor of a
more parliamentary system, Fillon said that it would be
impossible to convince the French electorate to abandon the
election of a president by universal suffrage. Nor was in
possible any longer for the president to remain above the
fray, he said, then blame everything on the PM. The move to
a five-year presidential term of office had reinforced this
trend. He characterized what he said was a PS plan to weaken
the powers of the presidency in favor of the prime minister
as "unrealistic."

The EU
--------------

5. (SBU) The EU currently suffered from a lack of direction
and leadership, Fillon said. He explained that enlargement
was the main problem, which made it difficult to take
decisions efficiently. "We can hardly express ourselves in
meetings" with 25 members, he lamented, since there was no
time to take the floor more than once. In order to move the
EU forward, Fillon saw a need to expand the Franco-German
"couple" into a Franco-Germano-British "menage a trois." His
basic point was that it was hollow to think that Europe could
progress without the UK. He saw the emergence of Angela
Merkel as positive, while commenting that Chirac was trying
to make his relationship with her appear closer than it was
in the vane of the mythical Franco-German tandem. Returning
to his analysis of the French electorate, Fillon argued that
the May 29 French referendum vote was not a rejection of
change or Europe, but in fact a vote for a more radical
overhaul of the system. This coincided with the tendency of
the French to vote against the current government, which had
backed the EU Constitution. However, Fillon conceded this
was his interpretation, and that it was difficult at the
moment to accurately draw conclusions from the referendum
vote.

U.S.-French Relations
--------------

6. (SBU) Fillon thought a Sarkozy government would better be
able to work together with the U.S., and be less overtly
critical and more nuanced in its public statements. Under
Sarkozy, he continued, disagreements would not as easily lead
to blow-ups with close and vital allies. At the same time,
he cautioned, this would not change the very real
anti-American sentiments of some parts of the French
populace. In response to the Ambassador's comment that
France is perceived as an obstacle to U.S. ambitions for
NATO, Fillon noted that there needed to be a better balance
in NATO between Europe and the U.S. First, however, he said
that Europeans themselves needed to be clearer about their
priorities. Separately, Fillon noted that Sarkozy did not
necessarily see the need for high levels of defense spending.

Economy
--------------

7. (SBU) On economic issues, Fillon called for fusing
welfare with unemployment so that the unemployed would be
more compelled to take jobs they were offered. He noted that
a Sarkozy economic system would push for more flexibility for
businesses and a simplification of the work codes. He also
advocated breaking the power of unions, including requiring
that elections be held every several years with open
candidacies.

Education
--------------

8. (SBU) Fillon spoke at length about giving schools more
autonomy (citing this as yet another area where Europe was
falling behind),but stopped short of recommending
decentralization. He criticized the burdensome bureaucracy
of the education system and lamented that the short time that
leaders remain in power limited their ability to effect
change. Increasing immigration required adaptation of the
system, but France had avoided such adjustments. He thought
universities should become independent, and that communes
should assume more responsibility for early education. He
talked about using limited resources for overtime pay for
those teachers willing and most able.

Comment
--------------

9. (SBU) Fillon came across as a seasoned, non-dogmatic, and
serious political figure. He appeared pragmatic,
forthcoming, accessible, and open to continued dialogue. He
has commented publicly on his disappointment at not being
included in the Villepin government because of his support of
Sarkozy. Fillon is among Sarkozy's closest advisors, and is
considered a potential prime ministerial candidate should
Sarkozy be elected president in 2007. End Comment.

Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm

Stapleton