MEDIA REACTION REPORT - Iraq Iran Bolivia

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SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - Iraq Iran Bolivia
PARIS - Wednesday, December 21, 2005


(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT:

Iraq
Iran
Bolivia

B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE:

Front pages lead with Evo Morales's election in Bolivia
(Liberation: "The Indians Re-conquer America."),China's
economic boom (Le Figaro) and the situation in Lebanon,
"Paralyzed by the Fear of Suicide Attacks" according to La
Croix. An interview with slain journalist Gebrane Trueni's
uncle Marwan Hamade, a Lebanese elected official, is titled:
"The assassinations in Lebanon are perpetrated with Bachar al-
Assad's knowledge."

The situation in Iraq is the basis for an interview of Gerard
Chaliand, who specializes in the politics of conflicts, in Le
Figaro, titled: "Iraq Is Dominated by `Communautarism.'" "The
elections are a success but they also confirm that in Iraq
political life is dominated by the separation between the
different communities. While democracy has made inroads in
Iraq, it is important to re-instate the Sunni majority in the
political process in order to keep chaos at bay. Bush is
increasingly on the defensive at home: this is the price he is
paying for his non-victory in Iraq and an ill-prepared war.
Considering the magnitude of the insurrection, and the
uncertainties hovering over Iraq, it is reasonable for the
U.S. President to maintain sufficient troops there. An early
withdrawal would have worse consequences than a prolonged
stay."

In the satirical weekly paper Le Canard Enchaine, Claude
Angeli pens an article entitled: "Paris and Europe Afraid of
`a U.S. Failure in Iraq." (See Part C) Liberation reports that
American pessimism about the economy and Iraq "is on the
wane." "The clouds over Bush's `horrible year' seem to be
lifting," writes Pascal Riche reporting on the latest U.S.
opinion poll (Washington Post/ABC News),which shows that 47%
of respondents support Bush, up from only 39% in November. He
notes that the "blitzkrieg" communications operation launched
in recent weeks to show Americans that victory is possible in
Iraq has succeeded.
Le Figaro reports on Angela Merkel's "harsher stance towards
Iran." (See Part C)

In his two-day visit, Serbian President Boris Tadic, continued
to express opposition to Kosovo's independence. In Les Echos
editorialist Jacques Hubert-Rodier analyzes the "Explosive
Kosovo Puzzle." "No matter what Kosovo's final status is,
there will always be a strong international presence in the
region because the match that is being played is extremely
complex and the great powers such as the U.S., France, Great
Britain, Italy and Russia who make up the `contact group' all
have a role to play."

Liberation reports that a poll to appear tomorrow in l'Express
indicates that 1 out of three people in France would like
Chirac to resign.

(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES:

Iraq

"Fear of a `U.S. Failure' in Iraq"
Claude Angeli in satirical Le Canard Enchaine (12/21):
"General Bentegeat last November said that `the international
community would do everything to avoid a U.S. failure in Iraq'
because of the dire consequences. Chirac, Villepin and their
advisors share Bentegeat's point of view. The signals coming
from Iraq are those of imminent danger and military personnel
of a `spreading cancer' in the Middle East. In his recent
speeches, President Bush repeated the word `victory' some
thirty times, as if to conjure fate. Or the polls. In Paris,
this spectacle of a President forced to repeat the same words
over and over is no longer even funny. A French diplomat
acknowledged that his colleagues at the U.S. Embassy in Paris
are both cynical and sad about the situation in Iraq: `they
acknowledge that a civil war between Shiites and Sunnis would
follow closely an early U.S. troop withdrawal.' But the fact
is that civil war has already erupted between the two
communities. Meanwhile, American Generals have warned that
keeping troops in Iraq will be difficult because of the lack
of recruits. Who can blame American youth for not wanting to
enroll."

Iran

"Merkel's Harsher Stance Towards Iran"
Maurin Picard in right-of-center Le Figaro (12/21): "With
little enthusiasm, the EU is resuming its talks with Iran on
the nuclear crisis. The EU-3 does not expect anything positive
to come out of the talks. Ever since the election of
Ahmadinejad, the outsider no one expected, Tehran has
seriously hardened its position. and is now lending a deaf ear
to Russia's overture. Euro-Iranian relations are very much in
ruins. But while today's meetings may well be a session
devoted to `exploratory contacts,' the troika is no longer
ready for a wait and see approach. Germany, which has
traditionally adopted a conciliatory attitude towards Iran,
has now opted for a different stance. The arrival of Angela
Merkel, who has a more atlanticist attitude than her
predecessor, has been instrumental in this change. The latest
remarks by Ahmadinejad have also prompted Germany to consider
imposing economic sanctions on Iran and banning the Iranian
President from Germany. But Moscow remains the key: torn
between keeping Iran from acquiring the bomb, and the appeal
of juicy Iranian contracts, Moscow has yet to choose sides."

Bolivia - Election of Evo Morales

"Renaissance"
Patrick Sabatier in left-of-center Liberation (12/21): "Could
this be the revenge of the Indians over the conquistadors? A
rebirth of the Che's revolutionary dream? Is this the
beginning of an Indian renaissance or of Latin America's shift
to the left? But anti-imperialistic slogans can be
misleading. Claiming to be leftist and anti-imperialistic does
not mean breaking with the gringos' economic system. Still,
the Indians have been the forgotten people for years. Evo
Morales's electoral victory, if only by its magnitude, is
reason enough to hope for a country that holds the world
record for political coups. It is up to Morales to avoid
populism and lift Bolivia's economy and social system."

"Bolivia's Peaceful Revolution"
Left-of-center Le Monde's editorial (12/21): "Morales's
election is like a peaceful revolution. But will he be able to
bring back stability to one of Latin America's poorest
countries? He will have the support of the unions, at least in
the beginning. His program will be the opposite of the
movement for economic liberalization, which has been taking
over across Latin America. Thus the anti-American axis is
being re-enforced. After the fall of military dictatorships
and the wave of democratization of the 90s, a new era has
started for Latin America." STAPLETON