ELYSEE TAKING GRIM VIEW ON CHAD

C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 008511

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/14/2015
TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV EFIN EPET CD FR
SUBJECT: ELYSEE TAKING GRIM VIEW ON CHAD

REF: A. PARIS 7792 B. NDJAMENA 1707 C. PARIS IIR 6
832 0101 06

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Josiah B. Rosenblatt. Reas
ons 1.4b,d


1. (C) Summary: The Elysee "Africa Cell" that advises
President Chirac believes President Deby's Chad is undergoing
a major crisis, with a near-term coup and territorial
disintegration conceivable scenarios. Deby has lost Zarghawa
confidence, according to Elysee adviser Labriolle, because he
has failed to back Zarghawa rebels in Darfur against
Khartoum. Deby has appealed to Chirac for help in assuaging
World Bank hostility to a revised plan for oil revenue
management that would free up capital for Deby to use in an
attempt to rebuild his shaky political base. However, the
disagreement between Deby and the World Bank is too
deep-rooted to allow an easy solution. End Summary.


2. (C) President Deby's Chad is undergoing a fundamental
crisis, according to Jacques Champagne de Labriolle, deputy
at the Elysee "Africa Cell" that advises President Chirac.
In marked contrast to an earlier more sanguine MFA view (Ref
A),Labriolle suggested to Africa Watcher on December 14 that
Chad could be on the brink of disintegration if Deby cannot
overcome the mounting rebellion among his Zarghawa kinsmen.
Some extremist Zarghawa now aspire to an independent state,
peeling off territory from both Chad and Sudan, Labriolle
maintained.


3. (C) Deby lost Zarghawa confidence, according to
Labriolle, because he has dealt responsibly with the Darfur
crisis by holding off on supporting the Zarghawa rebels in
Darfur against Khartoum. Deby's restraint was due in large
part, Labriolle claimed, to an appeal from President Chirac
in 2003. That same year, Deby's stature among the Zarghawa
declined so precipitously that the rumor mill interpreted his
absence from the 2003 Maputo African Union summit as due to
poisoning by his clansmen. Because Deby had heeded France on
Darfur, despite the harm to his own situation, Chirac felt a
personal obligation to stand by the Chadian president,
Labriolle continued.


4. (C) Labriolle acknowledged his own Christmas holiday
plans were up in the air, given the unsettling developments
in Chad. He feared, among other scenarios, a possible coup
by one of the Erdimi brothers, potentially encouraged, he
suggested, by local elements of an international petroleum
conglomerate. His nightmare entailed Libyan forces profiting
from the chaos to seize northern Chad.


5. (C) Labriolle confirmed that Deby had appealed to Chirac
to intervene with the World Bank over hostility to Deby's
revisions of the revenue management law (Ref B). The
disagreement, however, is too deep-rooted and Labriolle sees
no ready solution. Because Deby is in such hot water
politically, he needs access to additional assets now. The
World Bank is reacting in dogmatic fashion, Labriolle
observed. Moreover, Deby and Wolfowitz are not in
communication. Compounding that lack of dialogue, the
N'Jamena World Bank representative, whom Labriolle said
hailed originally from DRC, is facing criminal charges for
alleged sexual harassment, hampering his effectiveness.


6. (C) Labriolle commented that Chadians cannot fathom the
principle of a fund for "Future Generations," asking why they
should defer spending when they need immediate assistance.
Chadians, moreover, aren't seeing returns from recent oil
exploitation. In fact, Deby argues that Chad was better off
before the petroleum finds, because France, like other
donors, provided more generous aid.

--------------
MFA Less Tight-Sprung?
--------------


7. (C) AF DAS-Equivalent Bruno Foucher acknowledged the
growing French preoccupation with Chad to Africa Watcher in a
December 16 conversation. He added however that his own
worries had subsided somewhat since a December 15 meeting
with the Africa Cell and MOD at the Elysee. The temporary
deployment of additional French assets from Gabon was a
factor, he admitted (Ref C). Above all, Foucher said he saw
no single organized group poised to strike in Chad, but
rather a plethora of fractious parties who were not
coordinating. (Note: Foucher is not changing his own
Christmas holiday plans, which kick off December 17.)

Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm

Stapleton