FRANCE ON CHAD: DEBY'S THE MAIN MAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 007792

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/2015
TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV EFIN CD FR
SUBJECT: FRANCE ON CHAD: DEBY'S THE MAIN MAN

REF: 11/9 BALL-D'ELIA E-MAIL

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Josiah B. Rosenblatt. Reas
ons 1.4b,d


1. (C) Summary: For Michael Deslaimes, the French MFA Chad and
Togo Desk Officer, Idriss Deby's Presidency is
"indispensable" to the tenuous stability of a hodgepodge
country in continual tribal ferment. Deslaimes told Africa
Watcher November 15 that Deby is the right choice -- the only
option -- for the next election cycle in 2006. Deslaimes
labeled efforts to nurture alternative presidential
candidates misguided. Guidance request para 6. End Summary.


2. (C) Deby offers the best chance for reform in Chad,
according to Deslaimes, who singled out the importance of
military reform. Deby's plan to retire 15,000 troops and
recruit 10,000 new troops in their stead was a roadmap for
the "de-ethnicization" of the military. In Deslaimes' view,
the draft legal program to manage and allocate oil revenue
was also groundbreaking, especially when seen in a regional
context. Gabon's Bongo, who would never consider anything
similar, found the whole initiative a big laugh. Although
the plan would put more revenue into the state treasury, the
principle of transparent allocations was remarkable, and went
well beyond World Bank expectations, Deslaimes remarked. The
plan carried political risk as well, exacerbating the
discontent of Zaghawa critics who are already losing out on
revenue. Deby's reform of family law was another touchy
matter, chiefly because it revises Islamic-related
inheritance customs. Deslaimes went so far as to describe
Deby as "the guarantor" of "laicite" (secularism) in Chad,
preventing Islamization and religious-based conflict.


3. (C) Deby's reform efforts deserve credit and require
international assistance, Deslaimes averred. France already
provides an adviser to the Finance Ministry and would soon
dispatch two additional advisers to assist with budgetary
administration. Deslaimes asked that the USG consider taking
similar actions. He recommended a coordinated international
effort to provide, detail, second or otherwise contract
technical advisers to the Government of Chad. If the USG
takes part, Deslaimes was confident France could secure
German participation, and he expected Japan would likewise
follow suit.


4. (C) Deslaimes was nonchalant in describing Deby's health.
He said Deby suffered from chronic over-indulgence in Chivaz
Regal but also from a medical condition of the liver, "Cyst
Hydriatique," common to the Zarghawa and derived from a germ
found in mutton. The combined effects were excruciating,
Deslaimes imagined, and Deby needed some lifestyle
correction. While not dismissing health concerns out of
hand, Deslaimes indicated a bullet was likely to prove more
lethal.


5. (C) Deslaimes stated that France has a notional vision of
how Chad would weather Deby's sudden departure from the
political scene, whether due to assassination or illness. He
declined to offer details, apart from suggesting any
transition was unlikely to be strictly democratic and might
parallel proceedings in Mauritania. In any event, Deslaimes
counseled that Deby's departure, voluntary or otherwise, was
not a scenario to be encouraged. In reference to possible
alternative candidates, specifically from tribes in southern
Chad, Deslaimes cautioned against viewing Chad along the
lines of a Sudan caricature, e.g. as a North-South
religious-based conflict where the West had instinctively
rallied to southern Christian minorities. That said, he
noted the Arabic population in the North expected to take the
presidency after Deby, as the next in line in a kind of
informal rotation (that he attributed to historical accident.)


6. (C) Guidance Request: Deslaimes asked for any
information the USG could share about political activities by
Ahmat Soubiane Hassaballah, the former Chadian ambassador to
the U.S. whose tenure was cut short once he urged Deby to
relinquish office at the end of a second presidential term.

Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm
Hofmann