GOF WELCOMES MARONITE PATRIARCH VISIT TO PARIS;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 000651

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/02/2015
TAGS: PREL LE SY FR UNSC
SUBJECT: GOF WELCOMES MARONITE PATRIARCH VISIT TO PARIS;
SEEKS TO HIGHLIGHT LEBANON AS NEXT BIG REGIONAL ELECTION

REF: BEIRUT 282 (EXDIS NOTAL)

Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt, reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: The GoF continued high-profile outreach to
Lebanon's opposition with the January 28-29 visit to Paris of
Maronite Patriarch Sfeir, who met with President Chirac and
FM Barnier and had a historic, private meeting with
Paris-based Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun.
Chirac stressed to Sfeir the urgent need for Lebanon's
opposition to remain united. MFA contacts described Sfeir as
cautious and pessimistic on the state of Lebanon in his
meeting with Barnier. Sfeir stressed the need to avoid a
rupture between Lebanon and Syria and questioned what means
existed to enforce UNSCR 1559. French officials described
Sfeir as partly satisfied with the new Lebanese electoral
law, which favors Christians. At the same time, Sfeir
asserted that some 400,000 Syrians had become Lebanese
citizens and would vote in villages where they would seek to
turn the outcome in Syria's favor. French officials
expressed concern that Syria is seeking to facilitate former
General Aoun's return to Lebanon in order to further fracture
Lebanon's opposition; Presidency contacts appeared reassured
that Aoun would work with the opposition, despite his past
destabilizing role in Lebanon. French officials added that
UNSYG Representative Terje Roed-Larsen's upcoming visit to
Damascus and Beirut would be important in maintaining
pressure for 1559 implementation; Chirac will seek a meeting
with Larsen in Paris upon his return from the region.
Summing up on next steps, Presidency officials stressed that
Chirac would like to inscribe Lebanon's spring elections
within the context of growing democratization in the region,
as a follow-up to elections in Afghanistan, Palestine, and
Iraq; Chirac reportedly will stress this point during his
meeting with President Bush later this month. End summary.

SFEIR MEETINGS WITH CHIRAC, BARNIER
--------------


2. (C) Poloff discussed the January 28-29 visit to Paris of
Maronite Patriarch Sfeir and next steps on Lebanon/Syria with
Presidency Technical Advisor on the Middle East/Americas
Dominique Boche February 2 with MFA DAS-equivalent for
Egypt/Levant Christian Jouret February 1. Jouret reported
that Sfeir had a 30-minute one-on-one meeting with Chirac
January 28, followed by a lunch in Sfeir's honor with other
French officials present. The Patriarch met later that day
for 45 minutes with FM Barnier, and had a private meeting
with exiled General Michel Aoun in Paris January 29.
Boche confirmed that Chirac's main message to Sfeir was the
need for Lebanon's opposition to remain united; Chirac also
asked the Patriarch to use his "moral authority" to help
discourage rivalries among Christian politicians or between
Christians and other elements of the opposition. (Note:
Jouret told us that neither he or his boss, MFA
A/S-equivalent for Middle East/North Africa Jean-Francois
Thibault, had received a readout of the Chirac-Sfeir
one-on-one discussion, but he speculated that Chirac's
message was along the same lines described by Boche. End
note.)


3. (C) On the Barnier-Sfeir discussion, Jouret reported that
the Patriarch expressed deep pessimism on Lebanon's current
situation and showed caution in discussing Syria, which he
referred to continually as "the neighbor" rather than
mentioning Damascus directly. Sfeir described a somber
political and economic climate in Lebanon, where most
educated youth, Christian and non-Christian, were emigrating
to France and the U.S., amid a sharp decline in the Christian
population in the Middle East in general. Sfeir asserted
that some 40,000 Christians had fled Iraq for Syria, while
the Palestinian Christian population, due to emigration, had
dwindled to 10,000, from an earlier level of 100,000. Sfeir
concluded that Lebanon was "losing control of itself," with
social divisions growing between the rich and the poor.
Sfeir was also cautious with Barnier on UNSCR 1559, which he
described as a "good text," while questioning whether
enforcement means existed. Sfeir cautioned that pressure on
Syria should be exercised with great care and precision; he
warned against provoking a rupture between Syria and Lebanon,
which would leave Lebanon in a very dangerous condition.
Sfeir stressed that he hoped for normal, egalitarian
relations with Syria; he described Lebanon's pro-Syrian
politicians as having no love for Syria, but pursuing their
own economic interests instead.


4. (C) On Lebanon's upcoming parliamentary elections, Jouret
described Sfeir as partly satisfied with the new draft
electoral law, in that the "kaza" district system favored
Christians, everywhere except Beirut. At the same time,
Sfeir warned Barnier that some 400,000 Syrians had become
Lebanese citizens and would vote in the upcoming elections;
he warned these Syrian/Lebanese would vote in villages where
their turnout could turn the vote in Syria's favor. Asked
for GoF views on the draft electoral law, Jouret described it
as "not bad," and affirmed that as long as Lebanon's
government remained confessionally based, smaller electoral
districts based on the "kaza" system made sense. At the same
time, it was clear the draft electoral law, by dividing
Beirut into three districts, was designed to weaken Hariri,
who was now viewed as the enemy by Syria and the GOL.

AOUN FACTOR
--------------


5. (C) Jouret described Sfeir's January 29 meeting with Aoun
as historic and the first encounter between the two since the
Lebanese civil war. Expressing personal views, Jouret said
he was uncertain whether Aoun would return to Lebanon, as
recent press reports have suggested, given that
Syrian-initiated overtures could amount to a massive trap.
Presidency advisor Boche appeared more convinced that an Aoun
return was imminent, confirming that the GoF had been in
discreet contact with the General, who appeared confident
that the judicial obstacles to his return to Lebanon would be
lifted. Boche conceded that the GoF had been struck by the
sudden Lebanese announcement that Aoun's return would be
welcomed, which suggested a Syrian attempt to further
fracture the opposition, by putting one more figure in the
mix. At the same time, Boche suggested that the GoF was
reassured by Aoun's assurances that he would work with the
opposition and not be the factor of division he was 15 years
ago.

LARSEN VISIT
--------------


6. (C) Boche stressed that the upcoming visit of UNSYG
Representative Terje Roed-Larsen to Beirut and Damascus would
be an important opportunity to stress the international
community's determination on UNSCR 1559 implementation. The
GoF had wanted Larsen's visit to take place sooner, and
wanted Larsen to set up a mechanism of regular visits, or a
presence on the ground, to keep the pressure on in advance of
the April SYG report on 1559 implementation. The Presidency
was seeking to arrange a Larsen-Chirac meeting, which would
likely take place upon Larsen's return from the region, some
time next week.

LEBANON AS THE NEXT BIG ELECTION
--------------


7. (C) Summing up, Boche asserted that a new dynamic had
begun to appear on UNSCR 1559 implementation, with the
Lebanese opposition sensing that they had the support of the
international community behind them, and thereby showing
greater confidence in rejecting a permanent Syrian presence
in Lebanon. At the same time, Syria appeared to be reacting
to pressure, through such measures as the elevation of Deputy
FM Walid Muallem, about which the GoF still remained
skeptical. With the momentum of successful elections in
Afghanistan, Palestine, and now Iraq, President Chirac wanted
to inscribe Lebanon's spring elections within the context of
growing democratization throughout the region. Boche noted
that President Chirac had sought to highlight this point in
his January 31 conversation with President Bush, and that
Chirac would seek to expand upon the idea during his working
dinner with the President in Brussels February 21.

COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) Although the GoF maintains that the
Israeli-Palestinian issue and Iraq are the most pressing
regional issues before us, Syria/Lebanon remains the regional
issue in which President Chirac is most personally
implicated. Any new gestures that we make to further promote
our agenda for democracy and freedom in Lebanon -- as so
eloquently proposed in Beirut 282 -- would be very
well-received by the French and would be well-timed to
coincide with upcoming high-level meetings with GoF leaders.
End comment.





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