Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05PARIS5922
2005-08-31 16:05:00
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
Embassy Paris
Cable title:
REPORT FROM THE FRENCH SOCIALIST PARTY'S "SUMMER
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available. 311605Z Aug 05
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 PARIS 005922
SIPDIS
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DEPT ALSO FOR DRL/IL, EUR/WE, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD, INR/EUC AND
EB
DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB
DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2015
TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI ECON
SUBJECT: REPORT FROM THE FRENCH SOCIALIST PARTY'S "SUMMER
UNIVERSITY" 2005
REF: A. (A) EMBASSY PARIS SIPERNET DAILY REPORT FOR
29AUG05
B. (B) EMBASSY PARIS SIPERNET DAILY REPORT FOR
26AUG05
C. (C) EMBASSY PARIS SIPERNET DAILY REPORT FOR
24AUG05
D. (D) EMBASSY PARIS SIPERNET DAILY REPORT FOR
11AUG05
E. (E) PARIS 3722 AND PREVIOUS
Classified By: Minister Counselor for Political Affairs Josiah Rosenbla
tt for reason 1.4 (b) and (d)
SUMMARY
-------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 PARIS 005922
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
DEPT ALSO FOR DRL/IL, EUR/WE, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD, INR/EUC AND
EB
DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB
DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2015
TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI ECON
SUBJECT: REPORT FROM THE FRENCH SOCIALIST PARTY'S "SUMMER
UNIVERSITY" 2005
REF: A. (A) EMBASSY PARIS SIPERNET DAILY REPORT FOR
29AUG05
B. (B) EMBASSY PARIS SIPERNET DAILY REPORT FOR
26AUG05
C. (C) EMBASSY PARIS SIPERNET DAILY REPORT FOR
24AUG05
D. (D) EMBASSY PARIS SIPERNET DAILY REPORT FOR
11AUG05
E. (E) PARIS 3722 AND PREVIOUS
Classified By: Minister Counselor for Political Affairs Josiah Rosenbla
tt for reason 1.4 (b) and (d)
SUMMARY
--------------
1. (C) France's Socialist Party (PS) held the thirteenth
edition of its annual "Summer University" on August 26 - 28
(ref D). This year, party leaders used the event to start
drawing up the battle lines (ref C) between the rival
populist and progressive factions -- the 'no' and the 'yes'
camps that emerged from the May 29 referendum on the proposed
EU Constitution (ref E). These factions are contending for
leadership of the party in the run-up to the party congress
on November 18 - 20. All active PS politicians insist that
media speculation about a possible break-up of the party is
overdone (ref B).
2. (C) Party members used this year's "Summer University" to
size up in person the party's many would-be presidential
nominees (ref A). Former Finance Minister Dominique
Strauss-Kahn emerged as the pace-setter among the
presidential contenders. Former Prime Minister Laurent
Fabius failed to generate the groundswell of support he had
hoped for among the opponents of the proposed EU Constitution
and of the current party leader, Francois Hollande.
Hollande, in his self-appointed role as the champion of
transparency and democratic decision-making within the party,
emerged strengthened in his position as party chief. END
SUMMARY.
"CURRICULUM" PATTERNED ON MINISTRY-LEVEL ISSUE AREAS
-------------- --------------
3. (C) The "Summer University" is an informal, offsite sort
of event at which party members debate issues, network and
plan strategy. The workshops of this year's Socialist Party
(PS) "Summer University" each focused on an issue area dealt
with by a different government ministry. The panels leading
the workshops included representatives of the different
factions -- "currents" in PS parlance -- dividing the party.
According to the organizer of this year's "Summer
University", Jean-Christophe Cambadelis (a National Assembly
(NA) member from Paris) the idea was to "confront the
different currents' proposals" in key issue areas in order to
inform the debate over the different currents' platform
proposals for the party. Most of the PS's 150,000 or so
party members will vote -- on Tuesday, November 9 to be exact
-- on contending platforms in the run-up to the party
congress scheduled for November 18 - 20. The results of the
voting, through a complex, proportional system, determine the
leadership of the party until the next party congress.
CALM OF DEBATE MASKS BITTERNESS OF DIVISIONS
--------------
3. (C) The debate in the two dozen different workshops was
carefully orchestrated to ensure that the top leaders of the
two principal factions (ref C) never confronted one another
on the same stage. Former Prime Minister Laurent Fabius
never crossed paths with party National Secretary Francois
Hollande nor with former Economy Minister Dominique
Strauss-Kahn. Fabius is aiming to "federate" all those in
the party who favor a more contestatory -- leftist and
populist -- approach to social and economic policy.
Hollande, as the top party official, and Strauss-Kahn, one of
the most credible of the PS's many presidential contenders,
are emerging as the "duo of reference" for the diverse, and
by comparison realist and progressive, party establishment.
The carefully observed civility of the debate in the
workshops contrasted starkly with the resentment just under
the surface against those like Fabius, who failed to respect
the party's vote last December in support of the EU
Constitutional treaty.
PARTY ESTABLISHMENT CONFIDENT IT WILL RETAIN CONTROL
-------------- --------------
4. (C) The resentment against Fabius and other "traitors to
the party rules" is still running strong among rank-and-file
members. Hollande, in his self-appointed role as the
champion of those who believe party members should be the
final arbiters of decisions on the party's platform and
nominees, retains the support even of many party members who
voted against the proposed EU constitution last May. For
these reasons, Hollande, and the constellation of PS
luminaries who support his management of the party, are
confident that they can hold off the assault on the party
leadership being mounted by Fabius and his allies.
FABIUS FAILS TO SPARK ENTHUSIASM
--------------
5. (C) Fabius had hoped to trigger a groundswell of support
for his cause at the "Summer University." He failed to do
so. Even those party currents that contest the leadership of
Hollande -- and the ever more "social democratic" approach it
represents -- are keeping their distance from Fabius, at
least for now. The anti-American populists of the New World
(NM) current led by NA member and former minister Henri
Emmanuelli and Senator and former minister Jean-Luc Melanchon
will back Fabius in the end. Emmanuelli and Melenchon,
however, intend to put their own platform proposal ("motion"
in PS lingo) to the party membership in the run-up to
November's congress. (Fabius will probably associate himself
with others rather than present his own motion, because, as
one rank-and-file party member put it, "he wouldn't dare put
up his own motion -- it would show how little support he
has.")
THE "NEW SOCIALIST PARTY" (NPS)
--------------
6. (C) The New Socialist Party (NPS),a current of
"neo-radical," anti-globalization populists led by NA member
Arnaud Montebourg and EU Parlementarian Vincent Peillon, is
currently divided (cynics say tactically) over whether to
support Fabius (Montebourg is for, Peillon against).
Long-time observers of the PS (in this case Jean-Christophe
Le Duigou of the once communist General Confederation of
Labor (CGT)) call this NPS maneuver a "transparent effort" to
create a "swing vote" that, come the party congress, can
"sell itself" to one or the other camp for "what they are all
interested in but never talk about" -- their faction members'
selection to be the party's candidates for a range of
legislative and local offices.
MULTIPLICITY OF WOULD-BE PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEES
-------------- -
7. (C) According to Le Duigou, the national party
leadership's role in deciding who runs for what also explains
the plethora of candidates for the party's presidential
nomination. Many of these -- former ministers Jacques Lang,
Elizabeth Guigou, and Martine Aubry for example -- have
little possibility of winning the nomination, and less
possibility of winning the election thereafter (though Lang
currently leads in the opinion polls among PS contenders).
By hinting at a candidacy of their own however (which the
media willingly strings along),they strengthen their hand in
the complex intra-party poker game of drawing up the party's
candidate lists for a range of legislative and local offices.
FABIUS PLUS NM PLUS NPS IS A LONG SHOT, BUT POSSIBLE
-------------- --------------
8. (C) The rejection of the proposed EU Constitution last
May (ref E) by a healthy majority of voters was, in large
part, also a rejection of France's political class. Fabius
and his allies in the PS interpret this vote -- a strong
majority of left-leaning voters voted 'no' -- as representing
a lasting, popular sentiment that is demanding an end to
business as usual in the way France is ruled. Indeed, the
earthquake of the constitutional referendum has prompted a
range of reform proposals from parties of both left and right
and center (ref D). If the anti-establishment feeling that
triumphed in May should turn out to have staying power, it is
conceivable that, come next November, there may be more PS
party members than there are now ready to side with the left
of the party and support its call for radical change. It is
still a long shot, however.
COUNTDOWN TO COMPROMISE OR SHOWDOWN
--------------
9. (C) Hollande, in his closing address to "University"
attendees, stressed his conviction that the party would
remain unified and would settle on a unifying platform at the
upcoming November congress. The contending platform
proposals in their final form must be submitted by September
17 for the consideration of party members. Party members
will vote on them on November 9. Then, at the congress, a
large committee (with representation proportional to the vote
results) will try to hammer out a compromise platform that
all can support. This worked at the last party congress in
May 2003, in a deal that saw Hollande take the number one
slot in the party hierarchy and Fabius the number two
position.
AND IT MAY WORK AGAIN THIS TIME
--------------
10. (C) The one thing about which Fabius and Hollande -- and
nearly every other active, PS politician -- agree is that
splitting the party is tantamount to abandoning the next
presidential election to the center-right's candidate. While
the ideological differences between neo-radical populists and
progressive social democrats are now more marked than before,
people such as Fabius and Strauss-Kahn know this is their
last shot at the presidency. The system is such that, in the
back-rooms, there are lots of chips in play to fashion
compromises with second-tier factional leaders and their
followers. The trick will be to come to agreement on a
compromise presidential candidate with strong credentials
among those calling for aggressive, "neo-radical" reform and
those calling for the PS to become a social democratic party
similar to those in other major European countries. Many of
the "Summer University" attendees, asked which PS leaders
would be able to best fill that role, named former Prime
Minister Lionel Jospin and, somewhat surprisingly, former
Environment Minister and NA member Segolene Royal (who
happens to be Francois Hollande's longtime domestic partner).
COMMENT
--------------
11. (C) The PS has a long tradition of democratic
decision-making by party members. Those, like Hollande, who
trust the democratic process, believe that it will -- somehow
-- catalyze a solution to the party's critical problems: deep
ideological division and no strong candidate for 2007. It is
far too early to try and project what the socialists'
solution to this tandem of problems will turn out to be.
That Fabius got right the temper of the left's electorate,
and that the party leadership's position lost among its own
voters, does give Fabius and the 'no' camp some democratic
credibility. As Fabius supporter and EU Parliamentarian
Henri Weber said, "Hollande speaks for the party; Fabius
speaks for the people." It remains to be seen how the PS
will square the circle of a realist party leadership and an
electorate clearly tempted by more radical approaches.
Participants at the "Summer University" are a self-selection
of the most active party members. They were intensely
interested in the myriad ways the PS might meet its current,
daunting challenges. Contrary to what much press coverage
would have people believe, most seemed quite serene,
expressing full confidence that they, as the party members,
would eventually work something out for their party through
open debate and free and fair balloting. END COMMENT.
NOTE
--------------
12. (U) For daily updates on this and other France internal
political and external relations issues subscribe to Embassy
Paris SIPRNet Daily Report -- at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm or e-mail
OrdemanLT@state.sgov.gov.
STAPLETON
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
DEPT ALSO FOR DRL/IL, EUR/WE, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD, INR/EUC AND
EB
DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB
DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2015
TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI ECON
SUBJECT: REPORT FROM THE FRENCH SOCIALIST PARTY'S "SUMMER
UNIVERSITY" 2005
REF: A. (A) EMBASSY PARIS SIPERNET DAILY REPORT FOR
29AUG05
B. (B) EMBASSY PARIS SIPERNET DAILY REPORT FOR
26AUG05
C. (C) EMBASSY PARIS SIPERNET DAILY REPORT FOR
24AUG05
D. (D) EMBASSY PARIS SIPERNET DAILY REPORT FOR
11AUG05
E. (E) PARIS 3722 AND PREVIOUS
Classified By: Minister Counselor for Political Affairs Josiah Rosenbla
tt for reason 1.4 (b) and (d)
SUMMARY
--------------
1. (C) France's Socialist Party (PS) held the thirteenth
edition of its annual "Summer University" on August 26 - 28
(ref D). This year, party leaders used the event to start
drawing up the battle lines (ref C) between the rival
populist and progressive factions -- the 'no' and the 'yes'
camps that emerged from the May 29 referendum on the proposed
EU Constitution (ref E). These factions are contending for
leadership of the party in the run-up to the party congress
on November 18 - 20. All active PS politicians insist that
media speculation about a possible break-up of the party is
overdone (ref B).
2. (C) Party members used this year's "Summer University" to
size up in person the party's many would-be presidential
nominees (ref A). Former Finance Minister Dominique
Strauss-Kahn emerged as the pace-setter among the
presidential contenders. Former Prime Minister Laurent
Fabius failed to generate the groundswell of support he had
hoped for among the opponents of the proposed EU Constitution
and of the current party leader, Francois Hollande.
Hollande, in his self-appointed role as the champion of
transparency and democratic decision-making within the party,
emerged strengthened in his position as party chief. END
SUMMARY.
"CURRICULUM" PATTERNED ON MINISTRY-LEVEL ISSUE AREAS
-------------- --------------
3. (C) The "Summer University" is an informal, offsite sort
of event at which party members debate issues, network and
plan strategy. The workshops of this year's Socialist Party
(PS) "Summer University" each focused on an issue area dealt
with by a different government ministry. The panels leading
the workshops included representatives of the different
factions -- "currents" in PS parlance -- dividing the party.
According to the organizer of this year's "Summer
University", Jean-Christophe Cambadelis (a National Assembly
(NA) member from Paris) the idea was to "confront the
different currents' proposals" in key issue areas in order to
inform the debate over the different currents' platform
proposals for the party. Most of the PS's 150,000 or so
party members will vote -- on Tuesday, November 9 to be exact
-- on contending platforms in the run-up to the party
congress scheduled for November 18 - 20. The results of the
voting, through a complex, proportional system, determine the
leadership of the party until the next party congress.
CALM OF DEBATE MASKS BITTERNESS OF DIVISIONS
--------------
3. (C) The debate in the two dozen different workshops was
carefully orchestrated to ensure that the top leaders of the
two principal factions (ref C) never confronted one another
on the same stage. Former Prime Minister Laurent Fabius
never crossed paths with party National Secretary Francois
Hollande nor with former Economy Minister Dominique
Strauss-Kahn. Fabius is aiming to "federate" all those in
the party who favor a more contestatory -- leftist and
populist -- approach to social and economic policy.
Hollande, as the top party official, and Strauss-Kahn, one of
the most credible of the PS's many presidential contenders,
are emerging as the "duo of reference" for the diverse, and
by comparison realist and progressive, party establishment.
The carefully observed civility of the debate in the
workshops contrasted starkly with the resentment just under
the surface against those like Fabius, who failed to respect
the party's vote last December in support of the EU
Constitutional treaty.
PARTY ESTABLISHMENT CONFIDENT IT WILL RETAIN CONTROL
-------------- --------------
4. (C) The resentment against Fabius and other "traitors to
the party rules" is still running strong among rank-and-file
members. Hollande, in his self-appointed role as the
champion of those who believe party members should be the
final arbiters of decisions on the party's platform and
nominees, retains the support even of many party members who
voted against the proposed EU constitution last May. For
these reasons, Hollande, and the constellation of PS
luminaries who support his management of the party, are
confident that they can hold off the assault on the party
leadership being mounted by Fabius and his allies.
FABIUS FAILS TO SPARK ENTHUSIASM
--------------
5. (C) Fabius had hoped to trigger a groundswell of support
for his cause at the "Summer University." He failed to do
so. Even those party currents that contest the leadership of
Hollande -- and the ever more "social democratic" approach it
represents -- are keeping their distance from Fabius, at
least for now. The anti-American populists of the New World
(NM) current led by NA member and former minister Henri
Emmanuelli and Senator and former minister Jean-Luc Melanchon
will back Fabius in the end. Emmanuelli and Melenchon,
however, intend to put their own platform proposal ("motion"
in PS lingo) to the party membership in the run-up to
November's congress. (Fabius will probably associate himself
with others rather than present his own motion, because, as
one rank-and-file party member put it, "he wouldn't dare put
up his own motion -- it would show how little support he
has.")
THE "NEW SOCIALIST PARTY" (NPS)
--------------
6. (C) The New Socialist Party (NPS),a current of
"neo-radical," anti-globalization populists led by NA member
Arnaud Montebourg and EU Parlementarian Vincent Peillon, is
currently divided (cynics say tactically) over whether to
support Fabius (Montebourg is for, Peillon against).
Long-time observers of the PS (in this case Jean-Christophe
Le Duigou of the once communist General Confederation of
Labor (CGT)) call this NPS maneuver a "transparent effort" to
create a "swing vote" that, come the party congress, can
"sell itself" to one or the other camp for "what they are all
interested in but never talk about" -- their faction members'
selection to be the party's candidates for a range of
legislative and local offices.
MULTIPLICITY OF WOULD-BE PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEES
-------------- -
7. (C) According to Le Duigou, the national party
leadership's role in deciding who runs for what also explains
the plethora of candidates for the party's presidential
nomination. Many of these -- former ministers Jacques Lang,
Elizabeth Guigou, and Martine Aubry for example -- have
little possibility of winning the nomination, and less
possibility of winning the election thereafter (though Lang
currently leads in the opinion polls among PS contenders).
By hinting at a candidacy of their own however (which the
media willingly strings along),they strengthen their hand in
the complex intra-party poker game of drawing up the party's
candidate lists for a range of legislative and local offices.
FABIUS PLUS NM PLUS NPS IS A LONG SHOT, BUT POSSIBLE
-------------- --------------
8. (C) The rejection of the proposed EU Constitution last
May (ref E) by a healthy majority of voters was, in large
part, also a rejection of France's political class. Fabius
and his allies in the PS interpret this vote -- a strong
majority of left-leaning voters voted 'no' -- as representing
a lasting, popular sentiment that is demanding an end to
business as usual in the way France is ruled. Indeed, the
earthquake of the constitutional referendum has prompted a
range of reform proposals from parties of both left and right
and center (ref D). If the anti-establishment feeling that
triumphed in May should turn out to have staying power, it is
conceivable that, come next November, there may be more PS
party members than there are now ready to side with the left
of the party and support its call for radical change. It is
still a long shot, however.
COUNTDOWN TO COMPROMISE OR SHOWDOWN
--------------
9. (C) Hollande, in his closing address to "University"
attendees, stressed his conviction that the party would
remain unified and would settle on a unifying platform at the
upcoming November congress. The contending platform
proposals in their final form must be submitted by September
17 for the consideration of party members. Party members
will vote on them on November 9. Then, at the congress, a
large committee (with representation proportional to the vote
results) will try to hammer out a compromise platform that
all can support. This worked at the last party congress in
May 2003, in a deal that saw Hollande take the number one
slot in the party hierarchy and Fabius the number two
position.
AND IT MAY WORK AGAIN THIS TIME
--------------
10. (C) The one thing about which Fabius and Hollande -- and
nearly every other active, PS politician -- agree is that
splitting the party is tantamount to abandoning the next
presidential election to the center-right's candidate. While
the ideological differences between neo-radical populists and
progressive social democrats are now more marked than before,
people such as Fabius and Strauss-Kahn know this is their
last shot at the presidency. The system is such that, in the
back-rooms, there are lots of chips in play to fashion
compromises with second-tier factional leaders and their
followers. The trick will be to come to agreement on a
compromise presidential candidate with strong credentials
among those calling for aggressive, "neo-radical" reform and
those calling for the PS to become a social democratic party
similar to those in other major European countries. Many of
the "Summer University" attendees, asked which PS leaders
would be able to best fill that role, named former Prime
Minister Lionel Jospin and, somewhat surprisingly, former
Environment Minister and NA member Segolene Royal (who
happens to be Francois Hollande's longtime domestic partner).
COMMENT
--------------
11. (C) The PS has a long tradition of democratic
decision-making by party members. Those, like Hollande, who
trust the democratic process, believe that it will -- somehow
-- catalyze a solution to the party's critical problems: deep
ideological division and no strong candidate for 2007. It is
far too early to try and project what the socialists'
solution to this tandem of problems will turn out to be.
That Fabius got right the temper of the left's electorate,
and that the party leadership's position lost among its own
voters, does give Fabius and the 'no' camp some democratic
credibility. As Fabius supporter and EU Parliamentarian
Henri Weber said, "Hollande speaks for the party; Fabius
speaks for the people." It remains to be seen how the PS
will square the circle of a realist party leadership and an
electorate clearly tempted by more radical approaches.
Participants at the "Summer University" are a self-selection
of the most active party members. They were intensely
interested in the myriad ways the PS might meet its current,
daunting challenges. Contrary to what much press coverage
would have people believe, most seemed quite serene,
expressing full confidence that they, as the party members,
would eventually work something out for their party through
open debate and free and fair balloting. END COMMENT.
NOTE
--------------
12. (U) For daily updates on this and other France internal
political and external relations issues subscribe to Embassy
Paris SIPRNet Daily Report -- at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm or e-mail
OrdemanLT@state.sgov.gov.
STAPLETON