PARIS VISIT OF CDU LEADER MERKEL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 005045

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/20/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV FR GM EUN
SUBJECT: PARIS VISIT OF CDU LEADER MERKEL


Classified By: Acting DCM Josiah Rosenblatt for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
.


1. (C) SUMMARY: The front-page photos of CDU leader and
Germany's probable next Chancellor Angela Merkel and UMP
president and Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy in today's
IHT and FT illustrate the tantalizing prospect that the pair
holds for European commentators. The reality, however, is
that even if Merkel's CDU comes to power in September,
President Chirac will still have 19 months in office. The
more immediate question is how these two might work together
if she came to power in light of the close bonds that Chirac
and Chancellor Schrder have forged, and the effect that
their cooperation -- or lack of it -- would have on the
Franco-German relationship and on the EU as a whole.
Chirac's increasing irrelevance along with his differences
with Merkel on the role of the Franco-German "motor" in
European cooperation suggest that that engine may sputter for
lack of oxygen, at least initially. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) CDU chief Angela Merkel came to Paris on July 19 for
talks with President Chirac, Prime Minister de Villepin, and
Interior Minister and UMP president Sarkozy, in a mode Le
Monde described as chancelloresque. Following the Chirac
meeting, she held a press conference at the German
ambassador's residence; she and Sarkozy held a joint press
appearance at UMP headquarters after their meeting.


3. (C) Media reports in advance of her arrival highlighted
her stated belief, derived from her tutelage under Helmut
Kohl, that in addition to a strong Franco-German
relationship, Merkel will emphasize relations with small
countries and Germany's neighbors, particularly Poland. Le
Figaro noted that the CDU-CSU's campaign platform stated a
wish to "remodel" Franco-German cooperation in a way that
respects the trust of other member countries" and cited
Merkel's remarks in a Handelsblatt interview that "Germany
must reassume its role as the defender of small countries" in
the EU.


4. (C) Chirac's European affairs advisor Charles Fries told
us today that the meeting between the president and his
German visitor focused exclusively on European issues,
notably enlargement and the budget. When asked, Fries said
that Merkel did not raise the issue of a more inclusive
Franco-German leadership in European affairs. He asserted,
however, that France had no problem with this approach in any
case, as France had never sought to dominate the EU through
its relationship with Germany. Like Germany, he said, France
wants to work with all EU members. Fries also said it was
natural for Merkel to champion the cause of the Central
Europeans, given her own East German origins.


5. (C) In her public remarks after her meeting with Chirac
-- which she described as "very harmonious" -- Merkel said
that "all initiatives taken must be open to all European
countries, but France and Germany must be the engine of all
these initiatives." Further, she said, with a nod to the
centrality of the Franco-German relationship in the European
equation, "We are all the descendants of Adenauer, de Gaulle,
and Schumann. I will do my best to place Franco-German
relations under the sign of continuity."


6. (C) According to Fries, Merkel and Chirac spoke briefly
about Turkey's European future, each defending their
differing positions (Chirac supporting eventual Turkish
membership, Merkel favoring a privileged partnership). Fries
commented that at least Merkel "did not call into question"
the October 3 date for the start of negotiations with Ankara.
She did, however, raise concerns about Turkey's failure to
recognize Cyprus. Fries said that this issue would be
critical and unless there was a satisfactory response from
Ankara, the start of negotiations would be jeopardized. In
her own press conference, Merkel said that if the CDU wins
the elections, "we will have intense discussions on Turkey."
She rejected the idea of "a process that leads to a political
front of rejection on the part of the citizens." "After the
failures of the referendums in France and the Netherlands, we
have to worry about the future of Europe. We have to talk
about the limits of enlargement. We need frontiers, people
must know where the frontiers are. We have to find solutions
in the privileged partnership that will permit Turkey to come
close to Europe without going all the way to membership."


7. (C) Merkel also raised with Chirac the idea she
subsequently discussed with the press of a "co-financing" of
the CAP (as is currently in place for the new member states).
Fries said she raised this in the context of a discussion of
how best to manage the EU's consideration of its 2007-2013
budget, her idea being that assistance to European farmers
currently drawn from exclusively EU funds would in the future
by paid partly by the EU and partly by the member states.
Fries said that Chirac told Merkel directly that France would
not support this approach. He reminded Merkel that Germany
and France had already agreed (in the 2002 agreement) that
there would be no revision of the CAP until 2013.


8. (C) Fries acknowledged press reports of Sarkozy's
statements during his joint press conference with Merkel on
the need for France and Germany to work more closely with the
other large EU members -- the UK, Spain, and Italy -- but he
declined to comment. Asked whether he perceived any
difference between Merkel and Sarkozy on this point, with
Merkel championing the interests of the smaller states, Fries
again declined to comment, only repeating that France wants
to work with all member states.


9. (C) Finally, Fries said that Chirac felt certain that he
could work effectively with Merkel, should the CDU win the
September 18 elections and she emerge as chancellor.


10. (C) The Sarkozy meeting had the most political glamor,
as it brought together two European conservatives, would-be
leaders, who are currently in strong public favor. Many
analysts have contended that if both Merkel and Sarkozy were
to come to power, they could form, along with Tony Blair or
Gordon Brown, a European "Third Way" that could rejuvenate
the European project and help modernize the Union. In
keeping with their image as "different" politicians, Sarkozy
and Merkel held a joint press conference, displaying their
camaraderie for all to see (and to photograph). What sort of
personal chemistry the reputedly stand-offish scientist and
the irrepressible Sarkozy will have is one question;
yesterday they projected themselves as energetic responses to
the ossified current leadership in their respective countries.


11. (C) The two emphasized that they would like to see the
Franco-German relationship continue as a European motor, but
with more sensitivity to the other EU members. Sarkozy said,
"We consider that the Franco-German axis is indispensable,
but that several times in the past it has been seen as a
threat or a worry by our other partners. This axis is a
positive act of Europe-building. The Franco-German axis must
be refounded to not appear like a threat or source of worry
in the eyes of our partners, in the first rank of which are
the UK, Spain, and Italy. What we want, is that this axis
not be exclude friendship and work with our other (European)
partners. We want to show to all our (European) partners that
the friendship between Germany and France is at the service
of all Europe, not against our European partners." Merkel
agreed, noting, "The Franco-German axis is an essential
element of the EU, but it must not be led against the others.
The other countries must not have the feeling that we decide
everything over their head."


12. (C) Both underlined their agreement that Turkey should
not enter the EU. Sarkozy said, "We consider that Europe has
to give itself borders, that is, that all the countries of
the world do not have a call to integrate into Europe."
Merkel said, "The UMP and the CDU are in agreement that the
privileged partnership should be the solution for Turkey."


13. (C) COMMENT: While much of the press focused on the
prospect of a Merkel-Sarkozy partnership at the helm of
Europe, the French presidential election remains 20 months
away. For all the talk of an ideological affinity between
Sarkozy and Merkel, it is Chirac with whom Merkel -- should
she be elected -- will have to work. Chirac's telephone call
to Schroeder the morning of his meeting with Merkel was a
reminder of the unequal power relationship between the two
leaders, with Chirac over the past several years capitalizing
on the weakness of Schroeder's domestic political standing to
more frequently set the direction for their joint pursuit of
European objectives. The Merkel visit provided counterpoint.
The most salient image of the visit from our perspective was
the demonstration that the unequal power relationship may be
in the process of reversing itself. Should Merkel's CDU win
the September 18 election, she will be crowned with a new
mandate from German voters, whereas Chirac, defeated
successively in regional and European elections last year,
and again this year in the May 29 referendum on the European
constitutional treaty, is clearly on the decline. Under
those circumstances, Chirac will be compelled to compromise
more frequently if he is to avoid a rupture with the
victorious Angela Merkel and keep alive the Franco-German
engine of European integration. END COMMENT.
STAPLETON