Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05PARIS4954
2005-07-18 15:08:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Paris
Cable title:  

CHIRAC'S BASTILLE DAY INTERVIEW: A WEAKENED

Tags:  PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI ECON 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 004954 

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2015
TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI ECON
SUBJECT: CHIRAC'S BASTILLE DAY INTERVIEW: A WEAKENED
PRESIDENT STRUGGLING TO COME BACK

REF: PARIS 4900

Classified By: Minister Counselor for Political Affairs Josiah Rosenbla
tt for reason 1.4 (b) and (d)

SUMMARY
-------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 004954

SIPDIS

DEPT ALSO FOR DRL/IL, EUR/WE, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD, INR/EUC AND
EB
DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB
DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2015
TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI ECON
SUBJECT: CHIRAC'S BASTILLE DAY INTERVIEW: A WEAKENED
PRESIDENT STRUGGLING TO COME BACK

REF: PARIS 4900

Classified By: Minister Counselor for Political Affairs Josiah Rosenbla
tt for reason 1.4 (b) and (d)

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (SBU) Fighting to re-establish his relevance, President
Chirac began the now traditional Bastille Day interview of
France's President by casting himself as the leader of
France's anti-terrorism effort. Thereafter, in the hour-long
exchange with two leading TV anchorpersons, Chirac focused on
1) raising the morale of the French by highlighting the
positive in France's current situation, 2) insisting that
"the psychological moment" was right for the Villepin
government to undertake difficult reforms to diminish
unemployment, and 3) announcing a set of measures aimed at
synergizing academic research and business innovation in
France. The political context for Chirac is bleak; even so,
asked if he would run again in 2007, Chirac was
non-committal. His approval ratings are at record lows for
presidents of France's Fifth Republic (in place since 1959),
and his long-time rival in his own center-right, current
Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy, has of late stepped up his
challenges (septel) to the president's leadership. End
Summary.

FIGHTING IRRELEVANCE
--------------

2. (SBU) The public's rejection of the proposed EU
Constitution on May 29, the hasty change of government forced
on him by the stinging defeat in that referendum, Paris'
unexpected loss of the right to host the 2012 Olympic games,
an economy that has long sputtered along without strong
growth, and the insistent challenges to his leadership
credibility from long-time rival Nicolas Sarkozy (septel)
have severely diminished President Chirac's national
standing. In recent weeks Chirac's approval ratings have
fallen to around 22 percent, all-time lows for Chirac and
reportedly the lowest ever for any president of France's

Fifth Republic (De Gaulle, Pompidou, Giscard, Mitterand and
Chirac). The now traditional Bastille Day (July 14) extended
interview from the Elysee Palace has usually served to give a
preview of the key themes and policy initiatives envisioned
by the president for the coming -- September - June --
"political year." (For example, last year, Chirac used the
occasion to announce the May 29 referendum on the proposed EU
constitution). This year, discredited and with the lack of
vision for which he has long been faulted painfully evident,
Chirac's use of the occasion was limited to trying to
re-establish his continued relevance to guiding France into
the future.

LEADING FRANCE'S FIGHT AGAINST TERRORISM
--------------

3. (SBU) Chirac underscored that no country is immune to the
scourge of terrorist attacks, and clearly implied that the
French should not entertain any false hopes that their
country might somehow be excepted from that. Chirac depicted
himself as exercising active oversight of the effort to
protect citizens from terrorism. Chirac also insisted on
France's solidarity with Britain and admiration for the
British people. He recalled how, at the Gleneagles G8
Summit, the attacks prompted a new unity among the leaders
present, which would be translated into action by closer
anti-terrorism cooperation, in particular with France's
European partners.

FOCUS ON FRANCE'S STRENGTHS
--------------

4. (SBU) Throughout the hour-long interview, Chirac
repeatedly returned to those aspects of France's current
situation that should give the restive French public good
reason to be optimistic about the future. In particular,
Chirac repeatedly evoked the strength of France's export
sector (France is the world's fifth largest economy and
fourth largest exporter),the scale and know-how of France's
agro-industries (which should become more valuable as world
population grows),the productivity of France's businesses
(notwithstanding the 35 hour work week which Chirac said had
been very costly to the French economy),and France's healthy
rate of population growth and well-educated workforce.
However, Chirac also repeatedly focused on the "principal
problem" of unemployment. He called unemployment a "wound
that is not inevitable" and a "something that must be tackled
frontally." Chirac ended his remarks by announcing a new
initiative -- in the form of another state agency -- aimed at
better coordinating France's state-sponsored scientific and
engineering research and the business sector's product
innovation (reftel).

COMMENT: NOT ON THE COMEBACK TRAIL
--------------

5. (C) Chirac's performance was weak, and is unlikely to
give even temporary buoyancy to his sinking presidency.
Throughout the interview Chirac was clearly intent on getting
his points across, but also oddly absent. Many media
commentators, in different ways, noted that there was a
surreal tinge to the president's performance -- as if he was
actor in the part of President Chirac, but playing it
somewhat distractedly, with diminishing conviction. Chirac
incredibly claimed that he "had drawn strength" from the
people's message in voting 'no' to the proposed constitution.
Pundits have been repeating that those who claim to know
Chirac say that the May 29 defeat was a stunning blow to him,
and add that Chirac's partisans claim that he's now
determined to climb back into the saddle, grit his teeth and
ride out the last 21 months of his presidency with as much
engagement and dignity as possible. Whatever the truth of
Chirac's take on his situation and prospects, it's clear that
the public, for now, has largely written him off as a vital
force in French politics. All polls show the public views
Chirac as a has-been, unlikely to contribute much to leading
France into the future. Chirac's Bastille Day performance
did little to auger any comeback from that verdict. End
Comment.
STAPLETON