MEDIA REACTION REPORT - IRAQ AND THE BUSH DOCTRINE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 000444

SIPDIS


DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY (FRANK); BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU;
AF/PA; EUR/WE (DEBORAH MENNUTI)/P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA
(BERBENA); INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE
HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR AND PASS USTR/PA
(ANN LUZZATO); USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA; ROME/PA;
BRUSSELS/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE.

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR FR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - IRAQ AND THE BUSH DOCTRINE
MIDDLE EAST
PARIS - TUESDAY, JANUARY 25, 2005


(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT:


1. IRAQ AND THE BUSH DOCTRINE

2. MIDDLE EAST

B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE:

DOMESTIC POLICY ISSUES LEAD ON TODAY'S FRONT PAGES, AS THE
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY EMBARKS ON THE PRELIMINARY PROCESS TO REVISE
FRANCE'S CONSTITUTION. THE PROCESS AIMS TO MAKE THE
CONSTITUTION MORE COMPATIBLE WITH THE EUROPEAN CONSTITUTION
AND WILL LEAD TO A REFERENDUM THIS SPRING.

EDITORIAL COMMENTARY FOCUSES ON THIS POLITICAL EXERCISE AND ON
THE REPERCUSSIONS, INCLUDING TURKEY'S EU MEMBERSHIP. IN RIGHT-
OF-CENTER LE FIGARO ALEXIS BEZET WARNS AGAINST TOO MUCH
OPTIMISM, "AS WAS THE CASE FOR THE MAASTRICHT REFERENDUM,
WHICH IN THE END WAS ADOPTED BY A NARROW MARGIN. ONE MUST ALSO
REMEMBER THAT THE ISSUE OF TURKEY COMPLICATES THINGS, LEADING
THE NEW EURO CONVERTS TO DOUBT. BY INCLUDING IN FRANCE'S
CONSTITUTION THE PROMISE OF A REFERENDUM ON TURKEY, CHIRAC HAS
INDICATED THAT HE WANTED TO DISCONNECT THE TWO ISSUES. BUT THE
ANTI-TURKISH MOOD OF THE MAJORITY PROVES THAT VICTORY IS FAR
FROM BEING ACQUIRED."

OTHER STORIES INCLUDE THE IRAQI ELECTIONS AND THE THREAT OF A
BOYCOTT, AS ANNOUNCED ON LE FIGARO'S FRONT PAGE, (SEE PART C)
AS WELL AS THE IRAQI HOSTAGE SITUATION AND THE MEDIA'S
CONCERNS FOR THEIR CORRESPONDENTS. LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION,
WHOSE JOURNALIST FLORENCE AUBENAS HAS BEEN MISSING IN IRAQ FOR
THE PAST THREE WEEKS, DEVOTES ITS LEAD TO A MOVEMENT OF
SOLIDARITY FROM MEDIA EDITORS AND BUREAU CHIEFS. THE EDITORIAL
ASKS THE UNDERLYING QUESTION OF "HOW TO COVER IRAQ" WHILE ALSO
"INSURING THE SAFETY OF THE JOURNALISTS." CATHOLIC LA CROIX
EXPLAINS IN ITS FRONT-PAGE EDITORIAL WHY IT HAS DECIDED "FOR
THE TIME BEING" NOT TO SEND ANYONE TO IRAQ. "WE BELIEVE THAT
THE RISK IS DISPROPORTIONATE WITH THE NEED TO INFORM."

LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION DEVOTES A MAJOR ARTICLE TO THE
ADVANCES MADE BETWEEN MAHMUD ABBAS AND ISLAMIC GROUPS (SEE
PART C).

IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO CORRESPONDENT PHILIPPE GELIE
REPORTS ON A BUSH-CHIRAC DINNER IN BRUSSELS: "FRANCE, WHICH
DOES NOT FIGURE IN PRESIDENT BUSH'S FIRST EUROPEAN TRIP AFTER
HIS RE-ELECTION IS THUS GRATIFIED WITH SPECIAL TREATMENT. THE
PERSONAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE TWO LEADERS IS STILL
SUFFERING FROM THEIR DISAGREEMENT OVER IRAQ. PRESIDENT BUSH IS
COMING TO EUROPE WITH AN EXTENDED HAND, BUT ALSO WITH THE HOPE
OF RECEIVING CONCRETE SUPPORT IN IRAQ. THIS DINNER WILL BE
BUSH'S FIRST OFFICIAL GESTURE UPON LANDING IN BRUSSELS, AND
THE ONLY BILATERAL DINNER."

(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES:

IRAQ AND THE BUSH DOCTRINE

"THE BUSH DOCTRINE PUT TO THE TEST"
PHILIPPE GELIE IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (01/25):
"PRESIDENT BUSH'S VISION OF `LIGHTING THE FIRES OF LIBERTY'
HAS A DATE NEXT SUNDAY WITH THE HARSH REALITY OF IRAQ. THIS
SHOCK BETWEEN WORLD EVENTS IS THE BIGGEST RISK TAKEN BY THE
PRESIDENT IN HIS INAUGURAL SPEECH. HAVING REPEATED THE WORD
`LIBERTY' 49 TIMES IN 19 MINUTES, THE MAGIC WORD HAD INITIALLY
A HYPNOTIC EFFECT ON AMERICAN PUBLIC OPINION. BUT NOW THAT THE
FIRST EMOTION HAS PASSED, HIS PROMISE TO `END TYRANNY IN THE
WORLD' IS APPRECIATED ONLY BY THE NEO-CONS WHO PARTICIPATED IN
ITS FORMULATION. POLITICAL EXPERTS ARE CONTINUOUSLY POINTING
TO THE CONTRADICTIONS OF AN ADMINISTRATION WHICH GOES EASY ON
VERY UN-DEMOCRATIC REGIMES IN THE NAME OF THE FIGHT AGAINST
TERRORISM. SOON THE VERDICT WILL BE IN THE HANDS OF THE IRAQIS
WHO ARE BEING CALLED TO VOTE AND CONFIRM THE PRESIDENT'S
CERTAINTY THAT `FREEDOM IS HUMANITY'S PERMANENT HOPE.'"

MIDDLE EAST

"A CONDITIONAL MONTH-LONG TRUCE"
CHRISTOPHE AYAD IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION (01/25):
"OFFICIALLY, IT IS NOT A TRUCE. BUT ON THE GROUND IT IS
ALREADY A REALITY. MAHMUD ABBAS HAS MADE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS.
AND ISLAMIC GROUPS HAVE IN PRINCIPLE ACCEPTED THE IDEA OF A
TRUCE. IT WOULD SEEM THAT MAHMUD ABBAS IS ABOUT TO WIN THE
FIRST PART OF HIS WAGER: TO SILENCE THE `CHAOS OF WEAPONS' IN
ORDER TO RETURN TO THE NEGOTIATING TABLE. THE SECOND HALF OF
THE EQUATION IS IN THE HANDS OF ISRAEL AND THE INTERNATIONAL
COMMUNITY. BUT THE MEMORY OF MISSED PAST OPPORTUNITIES FOR A
TRUCE REMIND US THAT VERY LITTLE IS NEEDED FOR THE CYCLE OF
VIOLENCE TO BEGIN AGAIN. ONE OF ABBAS'S TRUMP CARDS IS THE
FACT THAT HAMAS WANTS TO TAKE PART IN THE LEGISLATIVE
ELECTIONS: ABBAS IS BETTING THAT HIS ISLAMIC RIVALS WILL
PREFER TO DEVOTE THEMSELVES TO THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN RATHER
THAN HARASS THE ISRAELI ARMY AND SETTLERS. BOTH ABBAS AND
SHARON NEED A PERIOD OF PEACE SO THAT THE WITHDRAWAL FROM GAZA
CAN GO AHEAD. FOR ABBAS, IT IS A WAY OF REKINDLING THE ROADMAP
PROCESS, WHILE FOR SHARON THE WITHDRAWAL IS A WAY TO ALLEVIATE
THE PRESSURE HE IS UNDER FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY."
LEACH