CHIRAC WINS ONE IN HIS BATTLE WITH SARKOZY FOR THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 000409

SIPDIS

DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, INR/EUC, AND DRL/IL
DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/21/2015
TAGS: EU FR PGOV
SUBJECT: CHIRAC WINS ONE IN HIS BATTLE WITH SARKOZY FOR THE
LOYALTY OF THE UMP


Classified By: Pol/MC Josiah Rosenblatt for reasons 1.4 (b/d).


1. (C) Summary: President Jacques Chirac has won a
significant skirmish in his on-going battle with arch-rival
Nicolas Sarkozy, currently president of the governing Union
for a Popular Movement (UMP) party. At a "surprise
appearance" at a caucus of UMP National Assembly deputies,
Chirac demanded party unity in support of the proposed EU
Constitution. Chirac's power play forced Sarkozy to withdraw
his proposal for a separate internal UMP vote on Turkey's EU
candidacy. Sarkozy's proposal had been widely seen as
another defiant move in his ongoing challenge of Chirac for
leadership of the center-right. Having backed down on
Turkey, Sarkozy will now preside over a single vote by party
members on March 6 on the EU constitution. Party faithful
are expected to endorse the constitution -- and a strong win
will help Chirac in his battle with Sarkozy. In addition,
Chirac has clearly demonstrated the reserve of support that
he enjoys among the UMP's most powerful group -- the party's
senior elected officials. End Summary


2. (SBU) On January 19 President Chirac made a "surprise
appearance" at an informal gathering of UMP National Assembly
deputies. The venue alone, practically next door to the
Elysee palace at a private club, shows that considerable
planning went into arranging the surprise. Chirac called on
all UMP members "to engage and mobilize enthusiasm and
determination in favor of the EU referendum." This call to
unity was largely understood as a call to order -- and a
rebuff to UMP President Sarkozy. Chirac implicitly rejected
Sarkozy's call for new UMP party vote on Turkey's EU
candidacy March 6. "On Turkey, opinions are divided", Chirac
said, "I know and respect this fact. Our strength comes from
diversity. But it also comes from our capacity to come
together and take action when circumstances require it. I
know I can count on you." Chirac's stature, as President of
the Republic, had its expected effect re-energizing most of
these UMP legislators' support for him.


3. (SBU) In the preceding week, Sarkozy had proposed that
party members vote on two separate resolutions at their next
party congress on March 6. Sarkozy's first resolution would
have been a straight up or down vote on supporting the
proposed EU Constitution. Given the strong support for the
new constitution within the UMP, this resolution was expected
to pass easily. Sarkozy's second resolution would have been
on whether or not it should be the party position to support
eventual accession of Turkey to the EU. Most observers
expected that the party membership would overwhelmingly
reject Turkey's eventual accession to the EU as they had
already done last year in a vote organized by then UMP
President Alain Juppe. Chirac, in an uncharacteristic gamble
with public opinion, committed France to supporting opening
EU accession talks with Turkey.


4. (SBU) Sarkozy's proposal to submit the Turkey question to
a vote -- in the party Chirac founded -- was seen as another
provocative move by Sarkozy in his quest to establish himself
as the unquestioned leader of the party -- and therefore its
candidate for the presidency in 2007. The move was
transparently a challenge to Chirac because the UMP had
already voted to oppose Turkish membership under Juppe.
Sarkozy justified his Turkey resolution as an effort to bring
more democracy to the party's internal debates by giving
members a voice on important issues, a practice common in the
center-left Socialist Party (PS). Chirac saw Sarkozy's move
not only as potentially, highly divisive, but also as a
direct threat to his leadership, and deftly engineered
turning the tables on Sarkozy through his "call for unity"
before the party's senior, elected officials.


5. (SBU) The following day, Sarkozy announced he was no
longer calling for separate resolutions on supporting the EU
Constitution and on supporting eventual admission of Turkey.
Rather, Sarkozy, without conceding any defeat, is calling for
a single resolution, which, given the overarching urgency of
affirming support for the proposed constitution, largely
buries any possibility for party members to express their
disagreement with Chirac's position on Turkey. A resolution
affirming the party's support for the proposed constitution
will also be a resolution in support of Chirac.

6, (C) Comment: Despite Sarkozy's setback, his position on
Turkey remains that of the overwhelming majority of UMP
members -- and the French public. Sarkozy's problem --
neatly demonstrated by Chirac's call to order -- is that
under current party by laws, questions of policy are not
decided by a vote of the membership or appeals to public
opinion. They are made by a coterie of top party leaders,
many of whom are beholden to Chirac. End Comment
Wolff