DOMINIQUE DE VILLEPIN'S MAIDEN SPEECH AS PRIME

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TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI ECON
SUBJECT: DOMINIQUE DE VILLEPIN'S MAIDEN SPEECH AS PRIME
MINISTER -- PROJECTING COMMAND OVER GRIDLOCK AND
CONFRONTATION

SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) A tightly self-controlled Dominique de Villepin --
he stuck to an uncharacteristically dry text and kept his
hands glued to the podium throughout -- delivered his
"general policy" speech to a packed National Assembly on June

8. Villepin was clearly focused on televisually
communicating firmness and determination to the public at
large, and he may have partially succeeded. As expected, the
speech focused on tackling France's high unemployment.
Villepin outlined a series of -- at best, modestly innovative
-- policy proposals intended to ease hiring and encourage
business expansion, and declared that as many of these as
possible would be implemented by decree. Reaction to the
speech inside the National Assembly highlighted the way the
May 29th referendum has exacerbated partisan differences
among the major parties (all of which supported the proposed
EU constitution, which was massively rejected by voters in
the May 29 referendum). As expected, Villepin's government
handily won the vote of confidence that followed the "general
policy" speech. Uncompromising opposition to the policies
proposed was immediate; before the parliamentary session had
ended, Bernard Thibaut, head of the formerly communist
General Confederation of Labor (CGT) called for a national
day of protest on June 21. END SUMMARY.

THE SPEECH: ON VIDEO VERSUS LIVE
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2. (SBU) In delivering his "general policy" speech to a
packed National Assembly on June 8, Prime Minister Dominique
de Villepin seemed clearly focused on projecting himself as a
calm and determined national leader. Despite ample
provocation in the form of taunting interruptions from
members of the opposition, Villepin never strayed from an
uncharacteristically dry text that outlined a largely
unsurprising set of measures (septel) aimed at combating
unemployment. In a way that seemed calculated to convey --
on television -- seriousness and firmness, Villepin cut out
all Gallic gesticulation and spoke in minimally modulated
tones. Polls show that at least two thirds of the French do
not have high expectations, either for Villepin or his
assault on France's unemployment problem. It remains to be
seen if this carefully controlled, first major appearance as
prime minister projects an image that boosts people's
confidence in Villepin and the likely effectiveness of his
leadership.


3. (SBU) Reaction to the speech as it was being delivered
inside the National Assembly fully confirmed the French
parliament's reputation for unruliness; indeed, for unabashed
public rudeness. "D'Artagnan!" mocked a member of the
socialist opposition, interrupting Villepin during a (rare)
florid moment during his speech. Pitiless partisanship also
characterized the right's reaction to Socialist Party (PS)
National Secretary Francois Hollande's response to the Prime
Minister's policy proposals. As Hollande evoked the
Socialist Party's alternative propositions for tackling
France's high unemployment, rightist members, pointing up
Hollande's lack of authority in the divided party following
the May 29 referendum loss, started chanting "Fabius, Fabius,
Fabius" -- as if calling for the leader of the dissident and
victorious socialist 'no' camp to speak for the Socialist
Party.

PARTISAN "IMMOBILISM" AND 2007 PRESIDENTIAL RACE
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4. (SBU) The reaction to the speech among parliamentarians
highlighted the way the political crisis engendered by the
May 29th referendum has prompted more politics-as-usual,
rather than any cold assessment by the political class of the
reasons for its rejection May 29. The avid partisanship on
display in the National Assembly does not bode well for the
Villepin government's chances of bringing about major
reforms. The political gridlock excoriated by Villepin may
well have already set in, as political decisions,
notwithstanding the current disarray in policy direction and
institutional credibility, are calculated more and more in
terms of their impact on the 2007 presidential race, rather
than any improvement they might bring to France's stagnant
economy and paralyzed (legal) labor market. The factionalism
within the center left (reformist versus dissident
socialists) and within the center-right (Sarkozist 'liberals'
versus Gaullists 'statists') will make it that much more
difficult for Villepin to get anything done. (Indeed, during
his speech expressions of support for Villepin from the right
were markedly lukewarm and perfunctory). Villepin's
intention -- out of necessity -- to implement his policy
proposals by decree rather than parliamentary action will be
generating as much opposition as will the content of the
policies decreed.

IMAGE PROJECTION OVER THE GRIDLOCK AND CONFRONTATION
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5. (SBU) His unspinnable, crushing defeat in the May 29
referendum has diminished the stature and visibility of
President Chirac. Prime Minister Villepin and Interior
Minister Sarkozy have taken center stage in what is shaping
up as a competition for the confidence of center-right voters
in view of the 2007 presidential race. Both will be very
attentive to cultivating their image with the public at
large, focused on projecting competence and effectiveness
notwithstanding the intractability of France's social and
economic problems and a political gridlock that puts
long-term, compromise solutions out of reach. Evidence of
the opposition's confrontational mood -- the Villepin
government will get no honeymoon -- was not long in coming.
Before the parliamentary session at which Villepin outlined
his policy initiatives had ended, Bernard Thibaut, head of
the formerly communist CGT labor union federation, called for
a national day of protest June 21.
WOLFF