MEDIA REACTION REPORT - BUSH INAUGURATION IRAQ -

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 000387

SIPDIS


DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY (FRANK); BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU;
AF/PA; EUR/WE (DEBORAH MENNUTI)/P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA
(BERBENA); INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE
HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR AND PASS USTR/PA
(ANN LUZZATO); USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA; ROME/PA;
BRUSSELS/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE.

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR FR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - BUSH INAUGURATION IRAQ -
ELECTIONS MIDDLE EAST
PARIS - FRIDAY, JANUARY 21, 2005


(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT:


1. BUSH INAUGURATION

2. IRAQ - ELECTIONS

3. MIDDLE EAST

B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE:

YESTERDAY'S STRIKES ARE TODAY'S FRONT-PAGE STORY, EXCEPT FOR
LEFT-OF-CENTER LE MONDE, WHICH TITLES "EUROPE, IRAQ, IRAN,
CHINA: WHAT THE WORLD EXPECTS FROM GEORGE BUSH." THE INSIDE
STORIES REPORTING ON THE PRESIDENTIAL INAUGURATION ARE TITLED
"BUSH II AS A MISSIONARY `FOR LIBERTY FOR THE WORLD'" (LE
FIGARO); "BUSH, THE WORLD'S NUMBER ONE FIREFIGHTER"
(LIBERATION); "THE WORLD ACCORDING TO BUSH II" (LE PARISIEN)
AND "GEORGE W. BUSH, DEFENDER OF LIBERTY" (FRANCE SOIR). SOME
REGIONAL COMMENTARY FOCUSED ON THE INAUGURAL SPEECH. (SEE PART
C)

IRAQ AND THE COMING ELECTIONS ARE THE SUBJECT OF A FRONT-PAGE
OP-ED BY ALAIN FRACHON IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LE MONDE TITLED
"ELECTIONS IN IRAQ AND FEAR OF THE SHIITES." FRACHON EXPLAINS:
"WITH THE COMING ELECTIONS, ARAB CAPITALS IN THE REGION DO NOT
KNOW WHETHER THEY SHOULD FEAR MORE DEMOCRACY AS A PRECEDENT,
INCREASING VIOLENCE OR A CIVIL WAR BETWEEN SHIITES AND
SUNNIS." (SEE PART C) RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO INTERVIEWS
GERARD CHALIAND, AN EXPERT ON CONFLICTS, AND THE AUTHOR OF A
BOOK ON THE TWO IRAQI WARS: "THE MILITARY SITUATION HAS
WORSENED. BUT NOT HOLDING THE ELECTIONS ON JANUARY 30 WOULD BE
AN OBVIOUS SIGN OF FAILURE. MY PREDICTION IS THAT THE RESULTS
WILL BE LAME, BECAUSE ONE CANNOT HOPE TO REBUILD A POST-BAATH
IRAQ WITHOUT THE SUNNIS, AND APPARENTLY THEY ARE NOT
PARTICIPATING."

RIGHT-OF-CENTER WEEKLY LE POINT'S EDITORIAL ON THE MIDDLE EAST
URGES THE U.S. TO WEIGH IN ON THE PARTIES, WHILE IT CRITICIZES
EUROPE'S LIMITED INFLUENCE AND FRANCE'S LACK OF CREDIBILITY
WITH ISRAEL BECAUSE OF ITS PRO-ARAB STANCE. (SEE PART C)

EUROPE AS A TARGET OF A NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL REPORT
IS THE BASIS FOR A STORY IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO BY
BRUSSELS'S CORRESPONDENT, ALEXANDRINE BOUILHET: "SEEN FROM
WASHINGTON, THE EUROPEAN UNION IS NOT A POWER OF THE FUTURE.
ACCORDING TO THE CIA'S STUDY, `MAPPING THE GLOBAL FUTURE,'
EUROPE WILL BE UNABLE TO PLAY THE PREDOMINANT ROLE IT WANTS TO
PLAY ON THE INTERNATIONAL SCENE. THESE CONCLUSIONS HAVE SENT A
CHILL ACROSS BRUSSELS. EUROCRATS ARE ALL THE MORE ANNOYED
ABOUT THE REPORT AND ITS SIMPLISTIC AND `PESSIMISTIC' VISION
OF EUROPE BECAUSE THEY ARE CAREFULLY PLANNING FOR PRESIDENT
BUSH'S VISIT NEXT MONTH. `WHY, THEY ASK, WOULD THE PRESIDENT
OF THE U.S. WASTE HIS TIME COMING TO BRUSSELS IF THE EU IS
INDEED SUCH A NEGLIGIBLE QUANTITY?'"

(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES:

BUSH INAUGURATION

"SEMANTICS"
FRANOIS BCET IN REGIONAL L'ALSACE (01/21): "FOR THE MOMENT,
ONLY THE VOCABULARY HAS CHANGED. THE AXIS OF EVIL HAS GIVEN
WAY TO `OUTPOSTS OF TYRANNY,'... BUT THE WAY TO SOLVE PROBLEMS
AND THE OBJECTIVES HAVE NOT CHANGED."

"HELPING BUSH"
JEAN-CLAUDE KIEFER IN REGIONAL DERNIERES NOUVELLES D'ALSACE
(01/21): "WE NEED TO HELP THE UNITED STATES. ALTHOUGH IT IS
`THE' WORLD'S NUMBER ONE MILITARY POWER, THE U.S. IS
POLITICALLY WEAK. IT SYSTEMATICALLY HAS TO FLEX ITS MUSCLES TO
GET WHAT IT WANTS, WITH THE RISK OF ALWAYS HAVING TO ACT
T
FORCEFULLY TO REMAIN CREDIBLE. THIS IS RISKY FOR THE ENTIRE
WORLD. HOW CAN WE HELP BUSH? BY TIRELESSLY TRYING TO BE
HEARD."
"DIPLOMACY"
PHYILIPPE WAUCAMPT IN REGIONAL LE RPUBLICAIN LORRAIN (01/21):
"THE U.S. SEEMS TO HAVE UNDERSTOOD THE LIMITS OF DIPLOMACY BY
WHIP AND SCORN, SEEING THAT IT HAS CAUSED THE REJECTION OF
AMERICA AND REINFORCED TERRORISM. THE PR-HUMANITARIAN
OPERATION MOUNTED AFTER THE TSUNAMI SHOWS THAT THE REPUBLICAN
ADMINISTRATION WANTS TO BE LIKED, BUT THERE ARE LIMITS IN THE
NEO-PURITAN VIEW OF A WORLD IN BLACK AND WHITE WHERE THOSE WHO
ARE NOT WITH AMERICA ARE AGAINST HER."

IRAQ - ELECTIONS

"ELECTIONS IN IRAQ AND FEAR OF THE SHIITES"
ALAIN FRACHON IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LE MONDE (01/21): "WITH THE
COMING ELECTIONS, ARAB CAPITALS IN THE REGION DO NOT KNOW
WHETHER THEY SHOULD FEAR MORE DEMOCRACY AS A PRECEDENT,
INCREASING VIOLENCE OR A CIVIL WAR BETWEEN SHIITES AND SUNNIS.
IN THE 1980'S IT WAS IRAN'S SHIITES WHO WERE FEARED. TODAY THE
DANGER WOULD BE COMING FROM IRAQ. AFTER TEHERAN, BAGHDAD'S NEW
SHIITE POWER COULD GALVANIZE ALL SHIITE MINORITIES IN THE
REGION AND LEAD TO INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE EAST.
ALREADY, TEHERAN'S SHIITE THEOCRACY IS A MAJOR CONCERN FOR
WASHINGTON. FROM THE SHORES OF THE MEDITERRANEAN TO THE GULF,
THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHIITE REGIME IN BAGHDAD IS PERCEIVED IN
THE ARAB WORLD AS A POLITICAL UPHEAVAL WITHOUT PRECEDENT.
IMAGINING THAT THIS NEW POWER COULD ALIGN WITH TEHERAN IS
ENOUGH TO GIVE CERTAIN ARAB COUNTRIES NIGHTMARES. BUT IS THIS
SCENARIO PLAUSIBLE? NOT QUITE. FIRST BECAUSE THE RELATIONSHIP
BETWEEN IRAQ'S POLITICAL SHIITE BASE AND TEHERAN'S IS A
COMPLEX ONE. IRAQ'S SHIITES ARE PROFOUNDLY `ARAB,' LEADING TO
A NON-AVOWED DISTANCE WITH IRAN'S PRO-PERSIAN SHIITES. IN
SHORT, THE RELATIONSHIP IS AS MUCH ONE OF PARTNERSHIP AS IT IS
ONE OF RIVALRY."

MIDDLE EAST

"A GLIMMER OF LIGHT IN JERUSALEM?"
CLAUDE IMBERT IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER WEEKLY LE POINT (01/21): "THE
SIGNS OF HOPE COMING FROM THE MIDDLE EAST WILL SOON BE STIFLED
UNLESS THE U.S. DECIDES TO WEIGH IN ON THE PROCESS. HAVING
BEEN WELL ELECTED, PRESIDENT BUSH HAS A FREE HAND TO ACT.
CAUGHT IN THE CALAMITOUS QUAGMIRE OF IRAQ, INTERNATIONALLY
AFFECTED BY GROWING ANTI-AMERICANISM, HE IS TAKING THE MEASURE
OF WHAT HE COULD GAIN FROM A PEACEFUL CONCLUSION OF ONE OF THE
MOST NEFARIOUS CONFLICTS EVER. BUSH HAS OPENLY SUPPORTED
SHARON, BUT BEHIND THE SCENE HE HAS ALSO DEVELOPED TIES WITH
ABU MAZEN'S MODERATES. HE CAN COUNT ON MUBARAK AS AN ALLY. AND
THE SAUDI REGIME IS PROMISING TO BE INCREASINGLY VIGILANT:
THEY CAN FEEL THE FLAMES COMING CLOSER. TEHERAN IS THE
REGIONAL JOKER. FOR THE TIME BEING WASHINGTON IS LETTING THE
EUROPEANS FEEL THEIR WAY AROUND. IN THIS HIGH-RISK GAME, THE
EUROPEANS WILL ONLY HAVE A MORAL INFLUENCE, AS THEY CONTINUE
TO GIVE WASHINGTON THE SUPPORT IT EXPECTS, BUT NO MORE.
FRANCE, BY ALIGNING WITH EVERY ARAB DEMAND, HAS LOST THE
RESPECT OF ISRAEL. SINCE THE FAILURES OF THE CLINTON-BARAK-
ARAFAT TRIO, PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE. TODAY SHARON AND ABU
MAZEN ARE IN A POSITION TO DIALOGUE AND TO DECIDE. TO HELP
THEM WE MUST BELIEVE IN THEM. BUT MOSTLY THEY EACH NEED TO
BELIEVE IN THE OTHER." WOLFF