Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05PARIS3727
2005-05-31 10:34:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Paris
Cable title:  

MEDIA REACTION REPORT - EU REFERENDUM - FRANCE VOTES

Tags:  OPRC KMDR FR 
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 003727

SIPDIS


DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY; BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; AF/PA;
EUR/WE /P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA; INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA
FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR
AND PASS USTR/PA; USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA;
ROME/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE.

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR FR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - EU REFERENDUM - FRANCE VOTES
`NO' PARIS - TUESDAY, MAY 31, 2005


(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT:

EU REFERENDUM - FRANCE VOTES `NO'

B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE:

FRANCE'S OVERWHELMING `NO' VOTE TO THE EU REFERENDUM PROVOKES
AN OVERWHELMING NUMBER OF COMMENTARIES IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY'S
PRESS, OVERSHADOWING OTHER STORIES. THE THEMES DEVELOPED IN
TODAY'S HEADLINES AND COMMENTARIES CAN BE CLASSIFIED INTO
THREE CATEGORIES: THE POLITICAL CLASS IS IN SHOCK; PRESIDENT
CHIRAC IS SANCTIONED; HOW TO ANSWER THE FRENCH PEOPLE'S CRY
FOR HELP, NAMELY REGARDING UNEMPLOYMENT AND DWINDLING BUYING
POWER. THIS LAST QUESTION IS CLOSELY LINKED TO TODAY'S NUMBER
ONE QUESTION: WHO WILL PRESIDENT CHIRAC CHOOSE AS HIS NEXT
PRIME MINISTER? SEVERAL NAMES ARE BEING CIRCULATED: INTERIOR
MINISTER DE VILLEPIN, UMP PRESIDENT SARKOZY AND DEFENSE
MINISTER ALLIOT-MARIE. PRIME MINISTER RAFFARIN RESIGNED THIS
MORNING, AND PRESIDENT CHIRAC IS SCHEDULED TO ADDRESS THE
NATION THIS EVENING AFTER THE NEW CABINET OF MINISTERS IS
REVEALED. (SEE PART C)

HERE BELOW A SAMPLE OF TODAY'S HEADLINES ILLUSTRATING FRANCE'S
POLITICAL CRISIS.

"CHIRAC'S CHOICE FOR PRIME MINISTER: HIS LAST TRUMP CARD" (LA
TRIBUNE).
"WHO FOR MATIGNON?" (FRANCE SOIR)
"CHIRAC TO CHOOSE THIS MORNING" LE PARISIEN
"THE REASONS BEHIND THE `NO'" (LIBERATION)
"CHIRAC DISAVOWED, EUROPE DESTABILIZED" (LE MONDE)
"CHIRAC SEARCHING FOR THE ANSWER" (LE FIGARO)
"WOUNDED, CHIRAC LOOKING FOR THE RIGHT ANSWER" (LES ECHOS)
"STUNNED, EUROPE WANTS TO DEAL WITH THE SHOCK" (LA CROIX)
"AFTER THE SHOCK OF THE `NO', HOW TO HANG ON" (WEEKLY
L'EXPRESS)
"STATE OF SHOCK: REJECTION OF POLITICAL AUTHORITY; ELITES
DISAVOWED; EUROPE SANCTIONED" (WEEKLY LE NOUVEL OBSERVATEUR)

SEVERAL STORIES REPORT ON INTERNATIONAL REACTIONS TO FRANCE'S
VOTE, MAINLY THROUGH QUOTES FROM THE FOREIGN PRESS. IN POPULAR
RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE PARISIEN, THOMAS CATALOUBE TITLES HIS
REPORT: "AMERICA'S IRONIC RESPONSE." "IN THE U.S. THE FRENCH
VOTE WAS RECEIVED WITH A SHRUG OF INCOMPREHENSION. THE FACT IS
THAT AMERICANS HAVE NEVER REALLY UNDERSTOOD THE DIFFICULTIES
LYING BEHIND EUROPE'S CONSTRUCTION. FOR THEM EUROPE IS ALREADY

A REALITY. THE AMERICANS ALSO CANNOT UNDERSTAND THE FRENCH
REJECTION OF LIBERALISM, FOR THE SIMPLE REASON THAT FOR THEM
THERE IS NO OTHER VIABLE SYSTEM. MOST U.S. COMMENTATORS NOTED
WITH SARCASM THE HUMILIATION SUFFERED BY CHIRAC, WHO IS STILL
NOT VERY MUCH APPRECIATED IN THE U.S."

IN ECONOMIC NEWS THE U.S. DECISION TO REFER THE AIRBUS SUBSIDY
ISSUE TO THE WTO IS REPORTED. IN LE FIGARO ECONOMIE A SMALL
ITEM COMMENTS: "THE PROPOSAL BY AIRBUS IS MORE DETAILED BUT
REMAINS THE SAME AS THE ONE ALREADY REJECTED BY THE U.S."
CHINA'S STANCE ON TEXTILE EXPORTS IS REPORTED AS BECOMING
HARSHER, IN SPITE OF PREVIOUS SIGNS TO THE CONTRARY. ON FRANCE
2 TELEVISION THIS MORNING AS WELL AS IN FRANCE SOIR AND LE
PARISIEN, CHINA'S "REVERSAL" IS LINKED TO FRANCE'S REJECTION
OF THE EU CONSTITUTION. "WITH EUROPE'S DIVISIONS, CHINA
CHOOSES TO TAKE A HARSHER STANCE," COMMENTS FRANCE SOIR, WHICH
ADDS NEVERTHELESS THAT "EUROPE IS NOT THE ONLY ONE TARGETED.
THE U.S. IS ALSO AFFECTED." FOR LE PARISIEN, "CHINA'S NEW
POSITION IS NOT GOING TO HELP FRANCE, WHICH HAS BEEN
NEGOTIATING FOR SAFEGUARDS FROM BRUSSELS. CHINA'S NEW HARSHER
POLICY COMBINED WITH THE VICTORY OF THE `NO' VOTE ON THE EU
CONSTITUTION WILL WEAKEN FRANCE'S POSITION." THE DECISION TO
LOCATE ITER IN FRANCE IS ALSO DISCUSSED IN CONNECTION TO THE
VOTE ON THE REFERENDUM. FOR RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO "FRANCE
CONTINUES TO BE AN INTEGRAL PART OF THE EU AND THE `NO' VOTE
WILL NOT IMPACT ON THE DECISION."

(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES:

EU REFERENDUM - FRANCE VOTES `NO'

"THE IMPASSE"
LEFT-OF-CENTER LE MONDE IN ITS EDITORIAL (05/31): "FRANCE'S
`NO' IS NO ACCIDENT. THROUGH A REJECTION OF THE TREATY A
MAJORITY OF THE FRENCH IS SAYING IT DOES NOT WANT OR NO LONGER
WANTS EUROPE. SO MUCH SO THAT IT TOOK THE RISK OF WEAKENING
FRANCE'S POSITION. THIS VOTE WAS ORGANIZED BY A MAN WHO MAY GO
DOWN IN HISTORY AS A SORT OF DR. STRANGELOVE OF POLITICS, WHO
USED OR MISUSED AGAINST HIS OWN INTERESTS THE DISSOLUTION OF
THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY AND THE REFERENDUM. EUROPE IS A FRAGILE
CONSTRUCTION WHICH, WE MAY SOON LEARN, IS ALSO REVERSIBLE. BUT
THE VICTORY OF THE `NO' IS THE VICTORY OF A PROTEST VOTE, WITH
AT ITS CENTER THE INSUFFERABLE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE. WHICH OTHER
COUNTRIES SUCH AS THE UK AND SCANDINAVIAN COUNTRIES HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO BRING DOWN. THE LEFT COULD WELL BE PARALYZED BY ITS
OWN INTERNAL DIVISIONS. THE RIGHT IS STRENGTHENED BY THE FACT
THAT 80 PERCENT OF ITS ELECTORATE VOTED `YES.' CHIRAC HAS NOT
PUT HIS MANDATE IN THE BALLOT. THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY MAJORITY
IS NOT THREATENED. IT IS THEREFORE UNREALISTIC TO CALL FOR HIS
RESIGNATION. BUT THE QUESTION REMAINS: WHAT IS THE POLITICAL
ANSWER TO THE `NO' EXPRESSED BY A MAJORITY OF THE FRENCH?
HOWEVER ONE WANTS TO INTERPRET THIS WAVE OF PROTEST, IT MEANS
THAT THE FRENCH SYSTEM, WHETHER EXCEPTION OR MODEL, JUST DOES
NOT WORK."

"THE ROOTS OF THE `NO'"
ALEXIS BEZET IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (05/31): "THE EASY
ANSWER WOULD BE FOR CHIRAC TO REACT TO THOSE WHO SUGGEST THE
SOCIALISTS' CALL FOR A `NO' VOTE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
VICTORY OF THE `NO' AND TO SHIFT HIS POLICY TOWARDS LESS
LIBERALISM AND A MORE SOCIAL MODEL. BUT THIS WOULD MEAN
IGNORING THE MANY REASONS BEHIND THE `NO' VOTE, INCLUDING FEAR
OF TOO MUCH LIBERALISM AND OF TURKEY. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
CLUE IS THAT BEHIND EVERY VOTER WHO VOTED `NO' LIES HIS FEAR
OF UNEMPLOYMENT. IF THIS PROVES TO BE `THE' REASON, THE
SOLUTION WILL BE UP TO THE NEXT PRIME MINISTER. OUR COUNTRY IS
IN A CRISIS AND THE `NO' VOTE WILL GIVE WINGS TO MOST UNIONS.
RAFFARIN'S SUCCESSOR WILL HAVE TO FIND A MIDDLE ROAD BETWEEN
FACILITATING LIBERAL INITIATIVES AND SOLIDARITY. IMPOSSIBLE?
MAYBE, BUT NECESSARY."

"LOST ILLUSIONS"
SERGE JULY IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION (05/31): "FRANCE
SUFFERS FROM RECORD UNEMPLOYMENT AND RECORD TAXES. THE TRUTH
IS THAT FRANCE'S POLITICAL CLASS IS STUMPED AND THAT
GOVERNMENTS COME AND GO. THE POLITICIANS' ABILITY IS IN
QUESTION. AND MEDIOCRITY HAS SURFACED. FOR OVER TWENTY YEARS,
IF NOT THIRTY, THE EASY WAY OUT HAS BEEN TO MAINTAIN THE
STATUS QUO, TO STRENGTHEN LOBBIES AND UNIONS AND TO OPERATE
ONLY MARGINAL CHANGES, WHICH ARE IMPOSED RATHER THAN DECIDED.
THE `NO' VOTE LOOKS LIKE A PROTECTIVE REACTION AGAINST SOCIAL,
URBAN AND GLOBAL INSECURITY. BUT THOSE WHO VOTED `NO' HAVE
JUST DISARMED US. AND THOSE WHO THINK EUROPE WILL GIVE US
ANOTHER CHANCE WILL BE HARSHLY DISILLUSIONED."

"THE WEAK LINK"
BRUNOT FRAPPAT IN CATHOLIC LA CROIX (05/31): "OF ALL THE
REASONS RAISED TO EXPLAIN THE VICTORY OF THE `NO' NONE CAN
EXPLAIN ITS MAGNITUDE, EXCEPT UNEMPLOYMENT AND THE LEITMOTIF
OF: `IT'S EUROPE'S FAULT.' THERE ARE A MILLION REASONS BEHIND
THE `NO' VOTE AND NO SINGLE POLITICAL PARTY CAN CLAIM
RESPONSIBILITY FOR ITS VICTORY. TODAY, IS EUROPE BETTER OFF
THAN FRANCE? THE WEAK LINK UNAVOIDABLY WEAKENS THE ENTIRE
CHAIN. THE SCAFFOLD OF EUROPE'S CONSTRUCTION HAS FALLEN. WE
MUST PICK IT UP AND GIVE BACK TO EUROPE ITS ORIGINAL GRANDEUR.
OTHERWISE, WHY BUILD IT?"

"THE PRICE OF THE `NO'
ALEXIS BEZET IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (05/31): "CHIRAC HAS
LOST HIS WAGER. HIS AUTHORITY OVER HIS OWN PARTY WILL BE
DIMINISHED. A THIRD TERM FOR CHIRAC IS HIGHLY IMPROBABLE. WHO
WILL BE THE NEXT PRIME MINISTER? ALREADY INSIDE POLITICAL
BATTLES ARE EMERGING. THE PARADOX WOULD BE IF, AFTER THIS VOTE
WHICH THE GOVERNING MAJORITY HAS INDEED LOST, BUT WHICH HAS RE-
ENFORCED ITS UNITY IN FACE OF THE SOCIALIST PARTY'S DIVISIONS,
PARTISAN QUARRELS WERE TO LEAD TO THE LOSS OF THIS ADVANTAGE.
IT WOULD MEAN PAYING TWICE FOR THE LOSS TO THE `NO'." WOLFF