FRANCE'S EU REFERENDUM: "NO" HAS THE MOMENTUM AS

C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 003625

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/25/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL FR EUN
SUBJECT: FRANCE'S EU REFERENDUM: "NO" HAS THE MOMENTUM AS
MAY 29 APPROACHES

REF: PARIS 3492

Classified By: Acting DCM Josiah Rosenblatt for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
.


1. (C) Summary: When President Chirac addresses a national
audience May 26 to urge a vote in favor of the EU
constitution three days later, he may be talking to an
electorate that has largely made up its mind -- to vote no.
Opinion polls and many of the country's sharpest political
commentators agree an opinion shift has occurred over the
past few days, with the "no" vote developing a gathering
momentum. With reports that defenders of the constitution,
including mayors in daily contact with their grassroots
constitutents, have stopped campaigning, the dynamic of a
self-fullfilling prophecy may be in play. Signs now point to
a rejection of the draft constitution, for a multiplicity of
reasons. For the increasingly demoralized "yes" camp,
Chirac's last effort to defend the text may be too little,
too late. End summary.


2. (C) All ten of the most recent polls have pointed to a
solidifying lead of no voters. The latest, on May 25, gives
a 54-to-46-percent advantage to opponents of the constitution
(among the 80 percent of the electorate who have decided how
they will vote). Reacting to this drumbeat of consistent
results, and based an almost palpable sense that French
voters simply want to say "no," most well-informed observers
and politicos are coming to the same conclusion: French
voters will turn down the refendum on May 29. Over a
Charge-hosted lunch for visiting NEA PDAS Liz Cheney May 25,
the talk from an assemblage of some of France's top political
analysts and columnists was all about the EU constitution.
Our guests agreed that over the past few days, there has been
a definite shift towards a consolidation of the "no" vote.
Dominique Moisi, Deputy Director of the French Institute for
International Relations (IFRI),told the Charge and PDAS
Cheney that his May 26 IHT column will call the vote for the
"no," citing three reasons: retrospective and prospective
doubts about EU enlargement; a national "malaise," fed in
particular by high and stubborn unemployment; and, the desire
to sanction France's distant and out-of-touch political
elite, with Chirac being the biggest target. All of those
present agreed that an ambiant fear of the future, in
particular the fear of losing jobs to less well-paid workers
in the new EU member states will be a major generator of a
"no" vote Sunday.


3. (C) Just back from visits to Marseille and Bordeaux in
the south, the Canadian and UK DCMs told the Charge earlier
May 25 that they, too, sense a clear shift toward rejection
of the constitution by a majority of voters on May 29 and are
reporting this back to London and Ottawa. Moisi noted that
pro-Constitution mayors in his home region have ceased
campaigning for the yes, having concluded that the majority
of their constitutents have made up their minds to vote no.
Even informal observations at polling places in many cities
and towns outside Paris (which are plastered with campaign
posters in the days before the referendum) suggest that
opponents of the consitution are more active than their
pro-constitution counterparts. The cumulative effect of so
many successive polls pointing to a no victory appears to
have created a snowball effect that Chirac will have
difficulty stopping when he makes his last-minute appeal to
the nation Thursday night.


4. (C) Turn-out could yet be critical. It is generally
thought that a heavy turnout on May 29 will help the yes
vote. If the yes side, seen as less motivated, can
nevertheless get out its vote and large segments of the
anti-government no vote decide that staying away from the
polls is as good a way to register their protest as voting
no, the yes may yet emerge victorious. Barring these
developments, however, most signs point to French voters
rejecting the EU constitution May 29. Septels will offer our
analysis of the consequences of the vote for French domestic
politics and for France in Europe. End comment.
WOLFF