FRANCE'S REFERENDUM ON CONSTITUTION: NOTHING

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TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI ECON
SUBJECT: FRANCE'S REFERENDUM ON CONSTITUTION: NOTHING
CERTAIN WITH A WEEK TO GO

REF: PARIS 3342 AND PREVIOUS

SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) With a week to go before France's May 29 referendum
on the proposed constitution for the EU, the outcome remains
highly uncertain. Latest polls, taken in mid-May, show 'no'
with a slight lead over 'yes' among decided voters.
Pollsters, however, are careful to point out that the number
of undecided and hesitant voters remains high (about 20
percent of those likely to vote). The debate over the
proposed constitution is galvanizing public attention, with
most pollsters predicting a high turn-out (as high as 70
percent of registered voters). In its final straightaway the
race is coming down to a contest between two emotion-driven
sets of issues. The core strength of 'no' is anger at elites
of both left and right and fear of economic displacement
driven by globalization and EU enlargement. The core
strength of 'yes' is hope that Europe can bring a better
future (including helping France cope with globalization) and
patriotism -- supporting France's leading role in the
European construction. END SUMMARY.

POLLSTERS HEDGE THEIR BETS
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2. (SBU) Current polls -- most taken in mid-May -- reflect
that, among decided voters, 'no' holds a slight lead over
'yes.' All these polls show 'no' at below 55 percent and
'yes' at above 45 percent, with between 15 and 30 percent of
likely voters listed as undecided. According to Eric Dupin,
a leading commentator on polls and journalist at the economic
daily "Les Echos," French pollsters systematically exaggerate
the number of "hesitant and undecided" in order to hedge the
predictive value of their polls. According to Dupin,
respondents are quite firm in their feelings and opinions,
and in the proportions indicated by current polls. But the
polls' accurate reflection of the distribution of views
across the electorate does not reflect how likely different
segments of this electorate are to go to the polls on
referendum day to express their convictions. Polltakers have
found that respondents tend to overstate their likelihood of
voting, since it is embarrassing to admit (even to a
polltaker) that one won't be bothering to vote.


3. (SBU) Pierre Giacometti, director of the IPSOS polling
organization, follows up this line of argument in insisting
that the profiles/demographics of voter groups are key to
turnout, and therefore to final results on referendum day.
For example, Giacometti believes that the psychological
profile of many 'no' supporters -- those who are alienated
more than angry, resentful of the whole system and despondent
about their own economic prospects -- makes it likely that
many will not bother to go to the polls. While, again in
Giacometti's view, the voter group that supports the proposed
Constitution by the largest margin (older voters and by a
two-thirds majority),are also the group likely to have the
highest rate of participation. Without backing away from
their poll results -- that 'no' is in the lead -- pollsters
are also exceedingly careful to point out that they really
don't have good predictive indicators of what the results
will be May 29.

"OFFICIAL" CAMPAIGN -- MEDIA BLITZ FOR AN ATTENTIVE PUBLIC
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4. (SBU) The "official campaign" -- operationally,
government financing of TV time for advocacy activities by
political parties -- began May 16. It features a salvo of
ads that bracket the prime time newscasts of France's
state-supported networks. Overall, the major parties favor
'yes' and the minor parties favor 'no' -- and there is no
equal time for the key 'no' camp, "dissident" socialist party
sympathizers. In past weeks books about the proposed
constitution have been selling briskly throughout France.
The high level of interest this reveals among the
book-reading public is now permeating the portion of the
public more likely to get their information exclusively from
television.


5. (SBU) The most effective of these ads, those concocted by
televisual professionals for the largest parties -- the
center right Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) and the
center-left Socialist Party (PS) -- are pro-'yes' and aimed
at swaying the undecided. Supporters of 'no,' particularly
those affiliated with these major parties, have been intent
on denouncing this "state-sponsored propaganda campaign," in
part because they fear that, as it builds up, it will be
effective, cutting into the lead of 'no' in the last days of
the campaign. From the beginning of the campaign, party
leaders in particular and the political class in general have
underestimated the depth of popular dissatisfaction with
their leadership and France's economic situation. If the
campaign finale's media blitz comes up short in bringing
around just enough undecided voters to overreach the high
tide of 'no,' they will have underestimated again.

DIVISIONS ON LEFT AND RIGHT -- PREVIEW OF 2007
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6. (SBU) The end of the referendum campaign is starkly
highlighting the deep splits on both center-left and
center-right. These differences, essentially clashing
visions of what the constitution should do for France and how
Europe should evolve should it be adopted -- will persist as
defining differences among candidates and party factions in
the run-up to the 2007 presidential campaign. On the
center-right: UMP president Nicolas Sarkozy highlights how
the constitution will help bring needed change to France,
providing a context for more opportunity, prosperity and
successful adaptation to globalization. President Chirac
stresses that the constitution provides for continuity --
continued protection for the institutions that sustain
France's social model and continued support for France's
traditional leadership role in Europe. On the center left:
PS National Secretary Francois Hollande has made adopting the
constitution in order to engage in the political struggle for
a "social Europe" the centerpiece of his pro-'yes' campaign.
Former Socialist Prime Minister Laurent Fabius insists that
an objective assessment of the text of the constitution in
view of the economic heterogeneity of the 25-country union
makes for a European construction deleterious to the
long-term interests of ordinary Frenchmen and women.

COMMENT
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7. (SBU) One area where there is general agreement is that
the strength of anti-constitution sentiment, particularly
among center-left voters, is due to the persistence and depth
of ordinary Frenchmen and women's anger at their country's
political and business elites and fear of an expanded Europe
and globalization. It remains to be seen to what extent
these emotions will motivate these voters to turn out and
vote 'no' on May 29. Hope that an expanded Europe (so unlike
that which the French public has traditionally supported) can
bring a better future, along with patriotism (confidence that
France is up to the challenge of leading in this new Europe)
are the counter-emotions that could motivate just enough
voters to bring about a 'yes' victory on referendum day. END
COMMENT.
WOLFF