Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05PARIS3423
2005-05-19 10:14:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Paris
Cable title:  

MEDIA REACTION REPORT - IRAQ - DEMOCRATIZATION AND

Tags:  OPRC KMDR FR 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 003423 

SIPDIS


DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY; BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; AF/PA;
EUR/WE /P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA; INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA
FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR
AND PASS USTR/PA; USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA;
ROME/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE.

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR FR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - IRAQ - DEMOCRATIZATION AND
REGIONAL ARAB SPRING FRANCO-AMERICAN RELATIONS
PARIS - THURSDAY, MAY 19, 2005


(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT:

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 003423

SIPDIS


DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY; BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; AF/PA;
EUR/WE /P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA; INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA
FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR
AND PASS USTR/PA; USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA;
ROME/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE.

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR FR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - IRAQ - DEMOCRATIZATION AND
REGIONAL ARAB SPRING FRANCO-AMERICAN RELATIONS
PARIS - THURSDAY, MAY 19, 2005


(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT:


1. IRAQ - DEMOCRATIZATION AND REGIONAL ARAB SPRING

2. FRANCO-AMERICAN RELATIONS

B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE:

EUROPE AND MORE EUROPE: PRACTICALLY EVERY FRONT PAGE IS
DEVOTED TO THE EUROPEAN CONSTITUTION, THE REFERENDUM, AND THE
IMPACT OF THE VOTE FOR FRANCE'S ECONOMY AND AUTONOMY. MEDIA
GIVES PROMINENT COVERAGE OF PRIME MINISTER RAFFARIN'S REMARKS
YESTERDAY IN BORDEAUX IN WHICH HE PREDICTED "LONG MONTHS OF
ECONOMIC CRISIS" SHOULD THE FRENCH REJECT THE EU CONSTITUTION.
LE FIGARO NOTES THAT THIS "CATASTROPHIC" POINT OF VIEW IS NOT
SHARED BY ALL, EVEN IN THE "YES" CAMP. LE FIGARO'S EDITORIAL
PONDERS PM RAFFARIN'S PREDICTION AND CONCLUDES A "YES" WOULD
NOT LOCK IN A NEW ERA OF PROSPERITY BUT A "NO", WHILE NOT
CHANGING THE MANDATE OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, NOR THE
BUDGETARY RULES OF THE UNION, WOULD "FURNISH SERIOUS ARGUMENTS
TO THOSE WHO OPPOSE FUNDAMENTAL REFORMS WHICH FRANCE NEEDS TO
FIND ANEW ITS ECONOMIC VITALITY." A NEW POLL PUBLISHED
YESTERDAY SHOWS A 50-50 DIVIDE IN VOTER INTENTION AMONG SMALL
BUSINESS OWNERS.

POPULAR WEEKLY MAGAZINE PARIS MATCH CARRIES AN INTERVIEW WITH
DEFENSE MINISTER ALLIOT-MARIE ESSENTIALLY DEVOTED TO DOMESTIC
ISSUES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HER SUCCEEDING RAFFARIN AS PRIME
MINISTER. SHE ALSO COMMENTS ON THE EU DEFENSE PROJECT: "YES WE
ARE STRIVING TOWARDS A JOINT DEFENSE. BUT NO, FRANCE WILL HAVE
NOTHING IMPOSED FROM THE OUTSIDE IN MATTERS OF DEFENSE OR
FOREIGN POLICY. IT CANNOT BE FORCED INTO MAKING DECISIONS THAT
IT DOES NOT APPROVE. DEFENSE WILL REMAIN A MATTER OF NATIONAL
SOVEREIGNTY. I HAVE A GOOD RELATIONSHIP WITH DONALD RUMSFELD,
EVEN IF THIS DOES NOT KEEP US FROM DISAGREEING. (HE IS NOT
HOSTILE TO THE EU CONSTITUTION) BUT HE SEEMS TO HAVE A CERTAIN
DEGREE OF MISTRUST TOWARD THE EU DEFENSE PROJECT."

SEVERAL COMMENTARIES ARE DEVOTED TO IRAQ AND CONTINUING
TERRORIST VIOLENCE. IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION JACQUES
AMALRIC IS NOT CONVINCED THAT ALL PARTIES IN IRAQ "SHARE THE
SAME DESIRE FOR PEACE." MORE BROADLY, LE FIGARO CARRIES AN OP-

ED ON THE ARAB SPRING BY PASCAL BONIFACE WHO ASKS WHETHER THE
"MUCH DECRIED" WAR IN IRAQ HAS INDEED PRODUCED A DEMOCRATIC
WIND IN THE MIDDLE EAST. HE CONCLUDES, ON OVERALL BALANCE, IT
HAS NOT. (SEE PART C)
TWO OTHER COMMENTARIES COMMENT ON FRANCO-AMERICAN RELATIONS IN
CONNECTION WITH IRAQ AND THE MIDDLE EAST. BOTH CHOOSE TO
CASTIGATE FRANCE FOR ITS NARROW THINKING. IN LEFT-OF-CENTER
WEEKLY LE NOUVEL OBSERVATEUR JACQUES JULLIARD WRITES: "WHILE
FRANCE IS SINGLE FOCUSED ON THE REFERENDUM, THE WORLD TURNS.
AND WE ARE UNABLE TO EVEN SEE OUR SUCCESSES, SUCH AS THE
FRANCO-AMERICAN EFFORT AT THE UN TO RID LEBANON OF SYRIA'S
OCCUPATION." IN POPULAR RIGHT-OF-CENTER PARIS MATCH ALAIN
GENESTAR RETURNS TO IRAQ AND THE FRANCO-AMERICAN CONTROVERSY
AND SUGGESTS THAT THE FRENCH, RATHER THAN WASTING TIME
DEBATING ABOUT THE WHIT MONDAY HOLIDAY, SHOULD DEBATE ABOUT
THE OUTCOME OF THE WAR AND FRANCE'S OPPOSITION TO BUSH. (SEE
PART C)

THE ARREST BY THE U.S. OF LUIS POSADA CARRILES IS REPORTED IN
A FACTUAL ARTICLE ONLY IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION, WHICH
CONCLUDES: "THE U.S. DOES NOT SEEM READY TO EXTRADITE THE
TERRORIST. ACCORDING TO A SPOKESMAN FROM HOMELAND SECURITY,
`THIS ADMINISTRATION DOES NOT USUALLY HAND OVER INDIVIDUALS TO
CUBA OR TO OTHER COUNTRIES ACTING IN ITS NAME,' MEANING
VENEZUELA."

(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES:

IRAQ - DEMOCRATIZATION AND REGIONAL ARAB SPRING

"IN IRAQ, A NOT SO SHARED `DESIRE FOR PEACE'"
JACQUES AMALRIC IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION (05/19): "AFTER
OPTIMISM, DOUBT. IN WASHINGTON, PROMISES OF DEMOCRATIC
TOMORROWS IN IRAQ HAVE BEEN REPLACED BY CONCERN. THE PRESIDENT
NO LONGER SPEAKS OF VICTORY AND CAREFULLY AVOIDS TALKING ABOUT
A CALENDAR FOR U.S. TROOP WITHDRAWAL. PUTTING IRAQ ON A BACK
BURNER IS NOT ENOUGH TO HIDE THE DIFFICULTIES OF ITS
RECONSTRUCTION. RECENT REPEATED TERRORIST ATTACKS. SEEM TO
IMPLY THAT COMPLICITY IS WIDESPREAD AT ALL LEVELS WITHIN THE
SUNNI COMMUNITY. AND EVEN ABROAD, IN SYRIA, SAUDI ARABIA AND
JORDAN. THE ENDLESS NEGOTIATIONS THAT PRECEDED THE FORMATION
OF THE NEW IRAQI GOVERNMENT HAVE AGGRAVATED WASHINGTON'S
CONCERNS. THE NEW COMMISSION WHOSE TASK IT IS TO DRAFT A NEW
CONSTITUTION HAS ONLY TWO SUNNI MEMBERS. THIS IS IN PART ONE
OF THE REASONS WHY SECRETARY OF STATE RICE WENT TO BAGHDAD.
THE OTHER REASON FOR HER TRIP WAS TO SEND A WARNING TO
DAMASCUS. THE PROBLEM FOR WASHINGTON IS THAT THE PEOPLE OF
IRAQ DO NOT ALL SHARE A `DESIRE FOR PEACE.' PARTICULARLY AMONG
THE SUNNIS. THE ATTACKS WHICH ARE TARGETING NEW IRAQI RECRUITS
SEEMS TO WANT TO TRIGGER A WAR AMONG THE DIFFERENT COMMUNITIES
IN ORDER TO CREATE EVEN MORE CHAOS. THIS IS ENOUGH TO
FRUSTRATE THE U.S. IN ITS SEARCH FOR SUNNI INTERLOCUTORS IN
ORDER TO PROMOTE RICE'S `STRONG ALTERNATIVE POLICY.'"

"UNIVERSAL PRINCIPLES OR REALPOLITIK"
PASCAL BONIFACE OF THE INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL AND
STRATEGIC RELATIONS IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (05/19): "THE
THEORY THAT THE WAR IN IRAQ HAS HELPED PROMOTE DEMOCRACY IN
THE REGION NEEDS TO BE SERIOUSLY QUESTIONED. WHILE THE WAR HAS
HAD SOME POSITIVE EFFECTS, SUCH AS GETTING RID OF SADDAM,
OVERALL THE BALANCE SHEET REMAINS NEGATIVE. AND THOSE WHO
THINK THIS CAN BE REDUCED TO THE FRENCH AND THEIR ANTI-
AMERICAN FEELINGS ARE WRONG. (THERE ARE THOSE WHO SHARE THIS
ANALYSIS IN THE U.S.) AT BEST AMERICA'S POLICY (IN IRAQ) HAS
HELPED TO PROMOTE A LITTLE MORE DEMOCRACY BUT MUCH TERRORISM.
MANY ARAB COUNTRIES DID NOT WAIT FOR THE AMERICANS TO INITIATE
THEIR DEMOCRATIZATION. AND THE AMERICANS, ALL THE WHILE
PROMOTING DEMOCRACY, HAVE CONTINUED TO ACCEPT CERTAIN
AUTHORITARIAN REGIMES SIMPLY BECAUSE THEY APPROVED U.S.
DIPLOMACY. ALL IN ALL, THE U.S. IMPLEMENTS ITS PRINCIPLES,
WHICH IT SAYS ARE UNIVERSAL, SELECTIVELY. THE DETERMINING
FACTOR IS STRATEGIC FAITHFULNESS MORE THAN THE DEMOCRATIC
LEANINGS OF A REGIME. AND IN THE NAME OF THE WAR AGAINST
TERROR, THE U.S. CLOSES ITS EYES TO DICTATORIAL REGIMES. IN
ITS STRATEGY FOR CHANGE, THE U.S. IS LOOKING MORE TO ACQUIRE
THE DOCILITY OF A NEW GOVERNMENT THAN TO PROMOTE DEMOCRACY FOR
THE PEOPLE. IN ESSENCE, THE NEO-CONS REMAIN FAITHFUL TO
REALPOLITIK."

IRAQ AND FRANCO-AMERICAN RELATIONS

"IRAQ AND EUROPE"
ALAIN GENESTAR IN POPULAR RIGHT-OF-CENTER WEEKLY PARIS MATCH
(05/19): "WHAT IS EVERYONE TALKING ABOUT IN FRANCE? WHIT
MONDAY. AND THE REFERENDUM, WITHOUT EVER DEBATING WORLD EVENTS
WHICH ARE CRUCIAL FOR EUROPE AND FRANCE SUCH AS THE WAR IN
IRAQ. EVERYONE IS FREE TO THINK THAT A `YES' VOTE WILL GIVE
EUROPE MORE POWER TO COUNTER AMERICA WHEN IT FINALLY SPEAKS IN
ONE VOICE. OR THAT THE `NO' VOTE WILL STRENGTHEN FRANCE'S
VERBAL OPPOSITION TO PRESIDENT BUSH WHILE IT RETAINS THE
OPTION OF SPEAKING UP ALONE. THE DEBATE IS AN IMPORTANT ONE.
DEBATING MEANS RECOGNIZING THAT NEITHER THE `YES' NOR THE `NO'
WILL KEEP U.S. DIPLOMACY FROM BEING WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE WANTS
IT TO BE. FRANCE SHOWED WITH PANACHE THAT WORDS ALONE CARRY
LITTLE WEIGHT WHEN CONFRONTING THE WORLD'S GREATEST POWER.
DURING THE CRISIS THAT OPPOSED CHIRAC TO BUSH, THE FRENCH
PRESIDENT WAS VERY OUTSPOKEN. HIS POSTURE WAS APPLAUDED AND
WAS MAGNIFICENT. BUT IT FAILED. WHEN ONE IS AGAINST WAR AND
THAT WAR FINALLY HAPPENS, WHEN IT IS CLEAR THAT THE OBJECTIVE
SOUGHT HAS NOT BEEN ACHIEVED, WHAT ELSE CAN BE SAID OTHER THAN
THAT WE FAILED? EUROPE AS IT STANDS WAS NOT ABLE, IN SPITE OF
FRANCE'S OUTSPOKENNESS, TO STOP THE WAR IN IRAQ. WILL EUROPE,
AS IT WILL BE IF THE `YES' VOTE WINS, BE ABLE TO STOP AMERICA
FROM REPEATING THE SAME MISTAKE..? WE SHOULD HAVE THIS DEBATE,
RATHER THAN DEBATING WHIT MONDAY."

"STILL, THE WORLD TURNS."
JACQUES JULLIARD IN LEFT-OF-CENTER WEEKLY LE NOUVEL
OBSERVATEUR (05/19): "WE ARE SO FORGETFUL OF WHAT IS GOING ON
IN THE WORLD THAT WE ARE NOT EVEN ABLE TO ACKNOWLEDGE OUR OWN
SUCCESSES. TOGETHER FRANCE AND THE U.S. WERE INSTRUMENTAL IN
FREEING LEBANON FROM SYRIAN OCCUPATION. FEW IN FRANCE SALUTED
WHAT IS ONE OF FRANCE'S MOST DISTINGUISHED DIPLOMATIC
SUCCESSES, EVEN IF NOTHING COULD HAVE HAPPENED WITHOUT THE
U.S. MILITARY PRESENCE IN THE MIDDLE EAST. YET THE EVENT
DESERVES TO BE SALUTED. IT MEANS THAT FRANCO-AMERICAN
RELATIONS HAVE TURNED THE PAGE OF THE IRAQI MISADVENTURE. THIS
IS RATHER A GOOD THING." WOLFF