MEDIA REACTION REPORT - IRAN - NUCLEAR ESCALATION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 003276

SIPDIS


DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY; BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; AF/PA;
EUR/WE /P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA; INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA
FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR
AND PASS USTR/PA; USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA;
ROME/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE.

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR FR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - IRAN - NUCLEAR ESCALATION
BOLTON NOMINATION OIL FOR FOOD REPORT IRAQ - BUSH AND BLAIR
PARIS - FRIDAY, MAY 13, 2005


(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT:

IRAN - NUCLEAR ESCALATION
BOLTON NOMINATION
OIL FOR FOOD REPORT
IRAQ - BUSH AND BLAIR

B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE:

WHILE EU ISSUES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE PRESS REPORTS AND
COMMENTARIES, IRAN'S LATEST NUCLEAR THREAT, THE BOLTON
NOMINATION HEARINGS AND THE REPORT ON OIL FOR FOOD ARE TODAY'S
THREE MAJOR INTERNATIONAL STORIES. CATHOLIC LA CROIX HEADLINES
"IRAN SPEEDS UP ITS NUCLEAR RACE" WHILE EDITORIALIST FRANCOIS
ERNENWEIN CALLS IRAN'S POSITION "A THREAT FOR THE WEST" WHICH
SHOULD LEAD "THE EUROPEANS AND AMERICANS TO WORK CLOSER
TOGETHER." IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO ISABELLE LASSERRE
QUESTIONS TEHERAN'S MOTIVATIONS AND ASKS: "ARE THE THREATS ON
THE LEVEL OR IS TEHERAN BLUFFING?" (SEE PART C)

IN LA CROIX BRUNO TERTRAIS OF THE FOUNDATION FOR STRATEGIC
RESEARCH LINKS THE TWO THREATS, FROM IRAN AND NORTH KOREA AND
COMMENTS: "THE THREATS COMING FROM THESE TWO COUNTRIES ARE
DIFFERENT, BUT IT IS NO MERE COINCIDENCE IF THEY ARE BOTH
SPEAKING UP AT THE SAME TIME. WITH THE IRANIAN AND NORTH
KOREAN EXAMPLES, WE DO RUN THE RISK OF A NEW WAVE OF NUCLEAR
PROLIFERATION BY WAY OF A DOMINO EFFECT."

LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION DEVOTES ITS LEAD STORY TO THE OIL
FOR FOOD REPORT AND ITS ACCUSATIONS AGAINST CHARLES PASQUA. IN
HIS EDITORIAL PATRICK SABATIER SUGGESTS THAT ALTHOUGH PASQUA
IS NOT COMPLETELY INNOCENT, "THE AMERICAN SENATORS' TRUE
TARGETS ARE THE UN AND FRANCE." (SEE PART C)

THE BOLTON NOMINATION ELICITS EXTENSIVE COVERAGE. IN LEFT-OF-
CENTER LE MONDE, CORINE LESNES TITLES HER ARTICLE: "JOHN
BOLTON, THE VOICE OF AMERICAN UNILATERALISM WANTS TO IMPOSE
HIS IDEAS ON THE UN." BUT HER REPORT QUOTES FRENCH DIPLOMATS
AS SAYING HE IS A "DIFFICULT NEGOTIATOR BUT A REAL
PROFESSIONAL." FORMER DCM TO PARIS AVIS BOHLEN CALLS HIM A
"BULLY" AND RECOUNTS HIS EFFORTS TO SINK THE TREATY ON
VERIFICATION OF BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS. LES ECHOS'S UNFLATTERING
PROFILE CALLS BOLTON A "MUSTACHIO-ED TROUBLEMAKER" AND LISTS
HIS OTHER NICKNAMES SUCH AS "THE GUIDED MISSILE," "ANTI-
DIPLOMAT," AND "TREATY-KILLER" PUTTING HIM AT ODDS WITH THE
PERSONALITY NEEDED FOR A UN FUNCTION. FOR ANYONE WHO WANTS TO
CHARM THE UN, ONE COULD NOT IMAGINE BETTER NEGATIVE PUBLICITY
FOR THE US POSITION. FOR LE FIGARO THE DELAY IS A "SLIGHT TO
PRESIDENT BUSH, THE FIRST OF THIS SECOND TERM." (SEE PART C)

IN HIS WEEKLY WRAP-UP NOTES IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO IVAN
RIOUFOL CHASTISES THE FALSE PROPHETS WHO PREDICTED THAT THE
WAR IN IRAQ WOULD BE THE FALL OF BOTH BUSH AND BLAIR, A
DIFFERENT TAKE FROM THE EDITORIAL IN THIS WEEK'S POPULAR
WEEKLY PARIS MATCH. (SEE PART C)

(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES:

IRAN - NUCLEAR ESCALATION

"SORCERER'S APPRENTICES"
FRANCOIS ERNENWEIN IN CATHOLIC LA CROIX (05/13): "IRAN HAS
CHOSEN TO TORPEDO THE NEGOTIATIONS WITH FRANCE, GERMANY AND
BRITAIN. THIS HARSH LINE ON THE PART OF IRAN OPENS THE DOOR TO
A WORRISOME TUG-OF-WAR, EVEN IF IT IS PART OF THE ELECTORAL
CAMPAIGN. ALTHOUGH THE EUROPEAN APPROACH DIFFERED FROM THAT OF
THE U.S., BOTH SHARED THE SAME OBJECTIVES. AND WERE
COMPLEMENTARY. SINCE YESTERDAY, TEHERAN'S ATTITUDE MEANS THAT
IT IS LEADING UP TO A CONFRONTATION. THE NEW TONE ADOPTED BY
IRAN DOES NOT HERALD ANYTHING GOOD, JUST WHEN EVERYONE THOUGHT
IT HAD LEARNED ITS LESSON FROM THE IRAQI CRISIS. THIS NEW TURN
OF EVENTS SHOULD MAKE AN AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE EUROPEANS AND
THE AMERICANS EVEN MORE PRESSING. FOR THE WEST, IT IS
ABSOLUTELY UNACCEPTABLE TO HAVE A COUNTRY LIKE IRAN POSSESS
NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES IN SUCH A TROUBLED REGION."

"IRAN BRANDISHES ATOMIC THREAT"
ISABELLE LASSERRE IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (05/13): "THE
IRANIAN CRISIS IS A NEW REVERSAL FOR EUROPEAN DIPLOMACY.
PRESIDENT BUSH, AFTER HAVING DRAGGED HIS FEET. FINALLY RALLIED
WITH THE EUROPEAN TROIKA. BUT IN REALITY, THE U.S. ALWAYS
BELIEVED THAT IRAN WAS PLAYING A DOUBLE GAME WITH THE
INTENTION OF BUILDING A NUCLEAR BOMB. IF THIS IS THE CASE,
DIPLOMATIC PRESSURE WILL NOT SUFFICE. IT IS CLEAR THAT IF THE
U.S. HAD BEEN ALONE ON THIS, IT WOULD ALREADY HAVE PUT THE
ISSUE IN THE HANDS OF THE UNSC. IF IRAN TURNS ITS THREAT INTO
REALITY, THE EUROPEANS WILL HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO GO ALONG
WITH THE AMERICANS. BUT WHAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS WHETHER THE
IRANIAN THREAT IS ON THE LEVEL OR WHETHER THEY ARE BLUFFING."

BOLTON NOMINATION

"THE TRIBULATIONS OF BUSH'S CANDIDATE"
PHILIPPE GELIE IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (05/13): "IF JOHN
BOLTON DOES GET TO THE UN, HE WILL HAVE BEEN PRECEDED BY HIS
REPUTATION. AND FOR PRESIDENT BUSH THIS IS A SLIGHT, THE FIRST
OF HIS SECOND TERM. WHILE BOLTON WAS FEELING THE WEIGHT OF THE
ACCUSATIONS AGAINST HIM, HIS CAUSE IS NOT TOTALLY LOST. BUT
HIS PRESTIGE AND HIS CREDIT COME OUT OF THE ARENA DURABLY
TARNISHED. SOME UN DIPLOMATS ARE ALREADY TALKING ABOUT A
`DISASTER.'"

OIL FOR FOOD REPORT

"VIRTUE AND CORRUPTION"
PATRICK SABATIER IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION (05/13): "ONE
WOULD HAVE TO BE NAIVE TO THINK THAT THE SENATORS WHO HAVE
FINGERED CHARLES PASQUA WANTED TO SAFEGUARD THE VIRTUOUS
NATURE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS. THEIR TRUE TARGETS GO WELL
BEYOND THIS FORMER MINISTER OF PRESIDENT CHIRAC, THEY ARE THE
UN AND FRANCE - THE SENATORS MAY EVEN HAVE MISTAKENLY BELIEVED
THAT PASQUA WAS AN ANAGRAM FOR CHIRAC. IN THE SENATORS' EYES,
BOTH THE UN AND FRANCE ARE GUILTY OF HAVING COUNTERED
AMERICA'S INTERESTS IN IRAQ. ONE NEED ONLY LOOK AT THE
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE BUSH CLAN AND AMERICA'S OIL BARONS TO
SMILE AT WASHINGTON'S INDIGNATION TOWARDS PASQUA'S CORRUPTION.
EVEN IF WE CANNOT BE NAIVE TO THE POINT OF BELIEVING HE IS
COMPLETELY VIRTUOUS."

IRAQ - BUSH AND BLAIR

"BUSH-BLAIR: SAME SUCCESS"
IVAN RIOUFOL IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (05/13): "TO THE
FALSE PROPHETS WHO PREDICTED THAT THE WAR IN IRAQ WOULD LEAD
TO THE FALL OF BOTH BUSH AND BLAIR: NOT ONLY DID BUSH GET
EASILY RE-ELECTED IN 2004, BLAIR WAS ALSO RE-ELECTED TO A
THIRD TERM. AN ADDED SOURCE OF UNHAPPINESS FOR THE ANTI-BUSH
CLAN: THE TRIUMPH HE RECEIVED IN GEORGIA, WHICH IS THE FIRST
CIS NATION TO HAVE PEACEFULLY ACHIEVED ITS REVOLUTION WITH THE
HELP OF THE U.S."

"BLAIR RE-ELECTION, IN SPITE OF IRAQ"
ALAIN GENESTAR IN WEEKLY PARIS MATCH (05/13): "BLAIR SERIOUSLY
HURT HIS IMAGE BY ASSOCIATING WITH BUSH THE WARMONGER. BUT THE
FACT THAT HE WAS ABLE TO OVERCOME THIS MAJOR ERROR ON HIS PART
PROVES THAT HIS ECONOMIC POLICY IS UNIMPEACHABLE. HIS MILITARY
COMMITMENT ALONGSIDE THE U.S. SHOULD HAVE COST HIM HIS
POSITION. IF HE WAS ABLE TO SAVE HIS JOB, ALBEIT WITH THE LOSS
OF A FEW FEATHERS, AND IF HIS WAR IN IRAQ DID NOT KILL HIM
POLITICALLY, IT IS BECAUSE HE WAS ABLE TO WIN THAT OTHER WAR
WHICH HAS CAUSED SO MANY CASUALTIES IN BRITAIN AND ELSEWHERE:
THE WAR AGAINST UNEMPLOYMENT." WOLFF