MEDIA REACTION REPORT - BUSH TO GEORGIA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 003167

SIPDIS


DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY; BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; AF/PA;
EUR/WE /P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA; INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA
FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR
AND PASS USTR/PA; USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA;
ROME/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE.

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR FR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - BUSH TO GEORGIA
GEO-STRATEGY: CHINA AND RUSSIA
PARIS - WEDNESDAY, MAY 11, 2005


(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT:

BUSH TO GEORGIA
GEO-STRATEGY: CHINA AND RUSSIA

B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE:

TODAY'S FRONT PAGES COVER A MYRIAD OF TOPICS, FOR THE MOST
PART RELATED TO DOMESTIC AND EUROPEAN ISSUES. LE FIGARO
DEVOTES ITS LEAD TO INTERIOR MINISTER DE VILLEPIN'S PLAN TO
REDUCE ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION, WHICH HE WILL PRESENT AT PRESIDENT
CHIRAC'S CABINET MEETING TOMORROW. THE INTRODUCTORY ARTICLE
SAYS THIS IS AN ATTEMPT TO REASSURE THE FRENCH IN ADVANCE OF
THE MAY 29 REFERENDUM ON A SUBJECT THAT IS OF CONCERN. "IN THE
FACE OF ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION, THE RULE SHOULD BE FIRMNESS," HE
SAYS IN AN INSIDE INTERVIEW. LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION DEVOTES
ITS LEAD STORY TO THE SOCIAL ASPECTS OF THE EUROPEAN
CONSTITUTION AND EU LEGISLATION ON WORKING HOURS. CATHOLIC LA
CROIX LEADS ON THE EU REFERENDUM, AND FOCUSES ON OPT-OUT
CLAUSES ALLOWING NATIONS TO DISREGARD THE LIMITATIONS SET BY
THE 48-HOUR WORKWEEK, IN CONNECTION WITH THE DEBATE AT THE
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT. ECONOMIC LES ECHOS INTERVIEWS NICHOLAS
JABKO, OF SCIENCES-PO, WHO REFUTES THE `NO' CAMPS' CLAIMS THAT
THE CONSTITUTION PUTS EU DEFENSE ENTIRELY IN THE HANDS OF
NATO. THE COMMON SECURITY CLAUSE "RESPECTS THE COMMITMENTS OF
MEMBER STATES TO NATO." IN A SEPARATE REPORT LES ECHOS NOTES
THAT ECONOMISTS DO NOT CONSIDER A `NO' VOTE TO THE REFERENDUM
TO BE A THREAT TO FRANCE'S ECONOMY.
POPULAR RIGHT-OF-CENTER FRANCE SOIR DEVOTES ITS LEAD AND FOUR
PAGES TO THE BLACK COMMUNITY IN FRANCE AND ASKS: "IS THERE A
NEW BLACK POWER IN FRANCE?" THE CONCLUSION IS THAT FRANCE'S
BLACK COMMUNITY IS TOO DIVERSE AND DOES NOT SPEAK AS ONE
POLITICALLY.

TODAY'S MAJOR INTERNATIONAL STORY AS REPORTED IN AN INSIDE
ARTICLE IN LE FIGARO IS "TBILISI'S TRIUMPHANT WELCOME FOR
PRESIDENT BUSH." THE EDITORIAL BY BRUNO FRAPPAT IN CATHOLIC
LA CROIX COMMENTS ON THE RECENT CEREMONIES IN MOSCOW, "THE
WEST'S CAUTIOUS APPROACH TO HISTORY" AND THE "RISING OF NEW
PERILS" WHICH IN FRAPPAT'S EYES ARE CHINA AND RUSSIA. (SEE
PART C)

IRAN AND RAFSANDJANI'S DECLARATION THAT HE WILL BE A CANDIDATE
IN THE JUNE 17 ELECTIONS ARE FRONT-PAGED IN LE FIGARO. AGNES
ROTIVEL WHO PROFILES RAFSANDJANI IN LA CROIX CONCLUDES: "FOR
MANY IRANIANS DISAPPOINTED IN KHATAMI, HE APPEARS AS THE ONLY
CANDIDATE WHO CAN END IRAN'S INTERNATIONAL ISOLATION AND RENEW
TIES WITH THE U.S., JUST AS THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY IS
URGING IRAN TO PUT AN END TO ITS NUCLEAR PROGRAM."

LIBERATION REPORTS ON "EGYPT'S FALSE PLURALISM." "EGYPT'S
OPPOSITION TO MUBARAK'S REGIME HAD FIGURED IT ALL OUT FROM THE
START. THE POLITICAL REFORM THAT WAS SO EAGERLY AWAITED IN
EGYPT FIZZLED OUT YESTERDAY, ENDING IN A MERE COSMETIC
OPERATION WITH THE PARLIAMENT'S ADOPTION OF THE RULES GUIDING
THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. THE HOPE ELICITED BY MUBARAK'S
SURPRISE ANNOUNCEMENT TWO MONTHS AGO HAS BEEN DOUSED BY THE
STRICT CONDITIONS FOR THE ELECTION. THE MANEUVER IS CLEARLY
AIMED AT MUBARAK'S SOLE RIVAL GROUP, THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD."

LE FIGARO CARRIES AN OPEN LETTER SIGNED BY A GROUP OF
PARLIAMENTARIANS HEADING AN ASSOCIATION CALLED "THE YES FOR
THE NO" AND WHO OPPOSE TURKEY'S EU MEMBERSHIP. THEY CONTEND
THAT VOTING `YES' IS THE BEST WAY TO SAY `NO' TO TURKEY.

ALAIN DUHAMEL IN AN OP-ED INLIBERATION TITLED "THE FRENCH
EXCEPTION," USES THE CONSTITUTION AS A POINT OF DEPARTURE TO
COMMENT ON FRENCH POLITICAL CULTURE. FRANCE HAS IN HIS VIEW AN
"INTERMITTENT" DEMOCRACY, AND PEOPLE ARE ONLY CONSULTED ONLY
ON VOTING DAY EVERY FIVE YEARS. DUHAMEL CONTENDS "FRANCE IS
NOT A TRUE DEMOCRACY IN THE SENSE OF THE US, UK OR GERMANY."

(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES:

BUSH TO GEORGIA

"A TRIUMPHANT WELCOME FOR BUSH IN TBILISI"
LAURE MANDEVILLE IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (05/11): "A
TRIUMPH. IN A NUTSHELL THIS SUMMARIZES THE WELCOME RESERVED
FOR PRESIDENT BUSH IN GEORGIA. HIS TRIP TO MOSCOW, SANDWICHED
AS IT WAS BETWEEN RIGA AND TBILISI, SYMBOLIZES THE U.S.
PRESIDENT'S DUAL STRATEGY: MAINTAIN AN OPEN DIALOGUE WITH
PUTIN WHILE AMERICAN BULLDOZER DIPLOMACY CONTINUES ITS POLICY
OF A `DEMOCRATIC ENCIRCLING' OF RUSSIA. ALL THE WHILE MAKING
BELIEVE THERE IS NO CONTRADICTION IN THIS APPROACH. THE NATURE
OF THE WELCOME PROVES THE IMPORTANCE OF UNCLE SAM FOR GEORGIA
AND ITS ATTEMPTS TO SUCCEED ITS ANCHORING ITSELF TO THE WEST.
WHILE SAAKASHVILI HAS PLAYED THE EUROPEAN CARD, THE SLOWNESS
OF EU DIPLOMACY IN ACKNOWLEDGING THE IMPORTANCE OF THE
CAUCASUS DOES NOT SEEM TO RESPOND TO HIS EXPECTATIONS.
CONVERSELY, THE U.S. HAS COMMITTED TO THE REGION. AND GIVES
MASSIVE TECHNICAL SUPPORT TO GEORGIA. WHICH CONTINUES TO BE
CAUGHT IN A STIFLING WRESTLING MATCH WITH MOSCOW IN ORDER TO
GAIN ITS SOVEREIGNTY."
GEO-STRATEGY: CHINA AND RUSSIA

"RISING OF NEW PERILS"
BRUNO FRAPPAT IN CATHOLIC LA CROIX (05/11): "RED FLAGS ON RED
SQUARE AND CHINESE TEXTILES COVERING THE WEST. RED AND YELLOW
PERILS? THE KREMLIN'S MILITARY CEREMONIES WERE WITNESSED BY
REPRESENTATIVES FROM DEMOCRACIES WHO WERE SOMEWHAT PERPLEX BUT
CAME NEVERTHELESS. THE ECONOMIC AMBITIONS OF THE RISING
EASTERN POWER ARE COMMENSURATE WITH ITS NEEDS, ITS POTENTIAL
AND ITS APPETITES. AND THOSE SAME DEMOCRACIES, THE EU AND THE
U.S. KEEP FROM RAISING THEIR VOICES, BECAUSE ONE NEVER KNOWS
WITH A RISING POWER, WHETHER IT WILL BECOME AN ALLY OR AN
ADVERSARY. IT IS NOT WISE TO INSULT EITHER RUSSIA OR CHINA:
THE FUTURE OF THE WORLD WILL ALSO BE DEFINED BY THIS. EUROPE,
THE U.S. AND INDIA KNOW IT. REREADING HISTORY THROUGH
POLITICALLY CORRECT LENSES IS ONE THING. BUT RUSSIA IS TRYING
TO REGAIN SOME OF ITS LOST GRANDEUR WHILE CHINA MAY SOON BE
ABLE TO IMPOSE ITS OWN. THE WEST IS NOT DONE WITH HISTORY,
WHICH MARCHES ON. LITTLE WILL DEPEND ON WHAT THE WEST DOES.
SOCIETIES AND INDIVIDUAL PEOPLES, THE RUSSIANS AND THE
CHINESE, WILL BE THE ONES TO SAY HOW THE WORLD TURNS. NOT
TODAY'S LEADERS." WOLFF