MEDIA REACTION REPORT - INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM:

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 002962

SIPDIS


DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY; BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; AF/PA;
EUR/WE /P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA; INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA
FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR
AND PASS USTR/PA; USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA;
ROME/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE.

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR FR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM:
EGYPT IRAQ: CALIPARI INVESTIGATION EU-U.S. RELATIONS - EU
CONSTITUTION
PARIS - MONDAY, MAY 02, 2005


(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT:


1. INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM: EGYPT

2. IRAQ: CALIPARI INVESTIGATION

3. EU-U.S. RELATIONS - EU CONSTITUTION

B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE:

THE REFERENDUM ON THE EU CONSTITUTION AND PRESIDENT CHIRAC'S
TEN YEARS IN OFFICE ARE TWO OF TODAY'S MAJOR FRONT-PAGE
STORIES. A NEW POLL ON VOTER INTENTION ON THE EU CONSTITUTION
CONDUCTED ON BEHALF OF LE MONDE, RTL RADIO AND LCI TELEVISION
REPORTS THAT THE "YES" LEAD BY 52 PERCENT. BUT A SIMILAR POLL
CONDUCTED FOR LE JOURNAL DU DIMANCHE INDICATES THE "NO"
WINNING BY THE SAME 52 PERCENT. ANOTHER POLL IN LE FIGARO ON
CHIRAC'S POPULARITY INDICATES THAT 38 PERCENT OF THE FRENCH
SUPPORT THE PRESIDENT, AND 57 DO NOT. BUT PREVIOUS POLLS SHOW
THE CHANGING NATURE OF PUBLIC OPINION FOR FRENCH PRESIDENTS, A
POINT RAISED IN THE LE FIGARO EDITORIAL BY YVES THREARD.

THE EUROPEAN CONSTITUTION IS ALSO DEBATED IN AN OP-ED IN LEFT-
OF-CENTER LIBERATION WITH REGARD TO THE U.S., AND EUROPE'S
POSITION AS EITHER A "VASSAL OR AN EQUAL" OF THE U.S. (SEE
PART C)

ON THE INTERNATIONAL FRONT THE NEW FACE OF TERRORISM IN EGYPT
IS ANALYZED, WHILE SEVERAL REPORTS ARE DEVOTED TO THE
CONFRONTATION BETWEEN ROME AND WASHINGTON OVER THE PENTAGON'S
CONCLUSIONS REGARDING THE CALIPARI ACCIDENTAL SHOOTING IN
IRAQ. (SEE PART C)

CATHOLIC LA CROIX CARRIES A PORTRAIT OF ANN VENEMAN, FORMER
U.S. AGRICULTURE SECRETARY AND NEW HEAD OF UNICEF: "HER
NOMINATION CANNOT BE EXPLAINED BY HER EXPERIENCE THE PLIGHT OF
CHILDREN IN THE WORLD, BUT RATHER BY HER CLOSENESS TO THE
WHITE HOUSE, AN ASSET IN THE ATTEMPT TO IMPROVE RELATIONS
BETWEEN THE WHITE HOUSE AND THE UN, WHICH HAVE SUFFERED SINCE
THE WAR IN IRAQ."

THE CONFERENCE IN NEW YORK ON THE NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION TREATY
IS REPORTED IN LE FIGARO. A SEPARATE REPORT INDICATES HOW
IRAN, "IN SPITE OF THE RISKS INVOLVED, CONTINUES TO ATTRACT
FOREIGN INVESTORS." RIGHT-OF-CENTER WEEKLY L'EXPRESS IN ITS
REPORT ON THE CONFERENCE COMMENTS: "IF THE NEGOTIATIONS
UNDERWAY WITH IRAN FAIL, THE AMERICANS ARE READY TO HAND OVER
THE ISSUE TO THE UNSC, AND DO NOT EXCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
REVERTING TO FORCE."

(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES:

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM: EGYPT

"INNOVATIONS"
GERARD DUPUY IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION (05/02): "IF MUBARAK
HAS ACCEPTED THE IDEA OF CHANGE FOR EGYPT, IT IS BECAUSE
CHANGE HAS COME TO EGYPT. MUBARAK'S SUCCESSION REVEALS
INTERNAL GENERATIONAL AND POLITICAL CONFRONTATIONS. THE NEW
GENERATIONS MARCHING IN THE STREETS ARE BETTING ON A
CONSTITUTIONAL DEMOCRACY. UNFORTUNATELY ISLAMIC TERRORISTS ARE
ALSO INNOVATING, USING A SORT OF DECENTRALIZED ORGANIZATION
FOR DEADLY ATTACKS. IN A COUNTRY KNOWN FOR ITS POLITICAL
IMMOBILITY, THE TEMPTATION TO PIT ONE GROUP AGAINST THE OTHER
IS GREAT. EGYPT, FOR THE MOST PART, IS A MILITARY
DICTATORSHIP. MUBARAK IS FACING TWO CHOICES TYPICAL OF
AUTHORITARIAN REGIMES: OPENING THE DOOR TO CHANGE, WITH THE
RISKS INVOLVED, OR USING MORE AUTHORITY, AND RISKING AN
EXPLOSION."

"A NEW GENERATION OF TERRORISTS"
PIERRE GARRETT IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (05/02):
"SPECIALISTS IN EGYPT'S ARMED ISLAMISM ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE
EMERGENCE OF A NEW GENERATION OF TERRORISTS, YOUNGER, MORE
DESPERATE AND LESS EASY TO CONTROL. THIS NEW FORM OF TERRORISM
IS MORE INFORMAL, FEEDS ON DOMESTIC FRUSTRATIONS AND REGIONAL
TENSION, SUCH AS THE ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT AND THE WAR
IN IRAQ."

"IN CAIRO, TERRORISM, FAMILY-STYLE"
RIGHT-OF-CENTER FRANCE SOIR (05/02): "THIS IS THE FIRST TIME
WOMEN TERRORISTS HAVE BEEN INVOLVED IN ATTACKS IN EGYPT. THE
POSSIBILITY SEEMED SO UNLIKELY THAT LOCAL AUTHORITIES FIRST
BELIEVED THE ATTACKERS WERE MEN DRESSED AS WOMEN. THIS TURN OF
EVENTS IS A WORRISOME SIGN OF THE CHANGES OPERATING IN EGYPT'S
TERRORISM. IT HAS EXPERTS CONCERNED ABOUT A NEW WAVE OF
ATTACKS SIMILAR TO THE ONES IN THE 90S. EGYPT IS FACING A NEW
GENERATION OF FUNDAMENTALISTS WHO ARE PARTICULARLY OPPOSED TO
THE WEST. THEY FEED ON THE COUNTRY'S DETERIORATING ECONOMIC
SITUATION AND ITS ABSENCE OF DEMOCRACY. THEY ARE ALSO ANNOYED
WITH MUBARAK'S RELATIONSHIP WITH WASHINGTON."

IRAQ: NEW GOVERNMENT AND CALIPARI INVESTIGATION

"A DIPLOMATIC INCIDENT BETWEEN ROME AND WASHINGTON"
RICHARD HEUZE IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (05/02): "THE
OFFICIAL U.S. REPORT ON THE SHOOTING DEATH OF NICOLA CALIPARI
APPEARED SO FAR FROM THE TRUTH THAT SYLVIO BERLUSCONI'S
GOVERNMENT REFUSED TO CO-SIGN IT. ITALY'S OWN INVESTIGATION
AND CONCLUSIONS DIFFER COMPLETELY FROM WASHINGTON'S. FOR THE
AMERICANS, THE FAULT LIES WITH THE ITALIANS, WHO FAILED TO
INFORM THE U.S. THAT ITALIAN INTELLIGENCE WAS IN IRAQ. IF ONE
IS TO BELIEVE THE OFFICIAL ITALIAN VERSION, THIS IS A BLATANT
LIE. THIS AFFAIR IS PUTTING BERLUSCONI IN AN IMPOSSIBLE
SITUATION. HE DOES NOT WANT TO PUT HIS RELATIONSHIP WITH THE
U.S. IN JEOPARDY. BUT SOMEHOW HE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ELUDE THE
QUESTION OF ITALY'S MILITARY PRESENCE IN IRAQ."

"IT IS ROME'S FAULT"
ERIC JOZSEF IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION (05/02): "IT IS
ITALY'S FAULT. THE U.S. IMPLICITLY SUGGESTED THAT THE
RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE FIRING SHOTS THAT KILLED CALIPARI LIES
WITH THE ITALIANS FOR NOT INFORMING THEIR ALLIES OF THEIR
OPERATION. THE MOST EMBARRASSING DIVERGENCE BETWEEN WASHINGTON
AND ROME HAS TO DO WITH COMMUNICATIONS BETWEEN THE TWO ALLIES.
DID THE ITALIAN AUTHORITIES CHOOSE NOT TO INFORM THE
AMERICANS? IT IS A FACT THAT WASHINGTON HAS NEVER ACCEPTED TO
NEGOTIATE WITH HOSTAGE TAKERS."

EU-U.S. RELATIONS - EU CONSTITUTION

"A VASSAL EUROPE OR AN EQUAL EUROPE?"
JUSTIN VAISSE IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION (05/02): "WHEN IT
COMES TO EUROPE AND THE EU CONSTITUTION, WE MUST KEEP IN MIND
THE POSITION OF EUROPE'S FOREIGN PARTNERS, AND IN PARTICULAR
THAT OF THE U.S. LET US NOT MAKE ANY MISTAKE HERE: A REJECTION
OF THE TREATY WOULD BE RECEIVED WITH A FEELING OF VICTORY BY
WASHINGTON'S NEO-CONSERVATIVES, ESPECIALLY IF IT RESULTED FROM
FRANCE'S VOTE. FROM WOLFOWITZ TO BOLTON AND RUMSFELD, THE
REJECTION OF THE TREATY WOULD COMFORT THE UNILATERALIST AND
WEAKEN THE MULTILATERALISTS IN THE INTERNAL U.S. DEBATE ABOUT
WHO DECIDES AMERICA'S FOREIGN POLICY. THE DEBATE ON THE EU
CONSTITUTION IS NOT ONLY TAKING PLACE IN EUROPE. IN
WASHINGTON, AS IN EUROPE, TWO VISIONS FOR THE FUTURE ARE IN
OPPOSITION. THE FIRST, WHICH DOMINATES IN WASHINGTON, BUT ALSO
IN GREAT BRITAIN AND EASTERN EUROPE, CALLS FOR A `NO' VOTE AND
REPRESENTS A VISION OF THE WORLD DOMINATED BY THE U.S., `THE
BENEVOLENT EMPIRE' WHICH MUST BE HELPED BY ITS ALLIES WITHOUT
ASKING QUESTIONS. THE SECOND VISION, WHICH IS THAT OF THE
DEMOCRATS AND A FEW REALISTS AMONG THE REPUBLICANS, CONSIDER
THAT UNILATERALISM IS DANGEROUS AND THAT THE U.S. MUST LISTEN
AND TAKE INTO ACCOUNT WHAT ITS ALLIES HAVE TO SAY. THIS
VISION, WHICH IS CLOSE TO THAT OF MOST EUROPEANS, REQUIRES A
EUROPEAN UNION THAT CAN BE HEARD ON THE INTERNATIONAL SCENE TO
WEIGH IN ON U.S. DOMESTIC POLICY AND TO DIRECT AMERICA TOWARDS
COOPERATION RATHER THAN HEGEMONY. IN OTHER WORDS, THE INTERNAL
BALANCE OF POWER IN WASHINGTON REFLECTS THE STATUS OF THE
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM: A DIVIDED AND WEAKENED EUROPE DEPRIVES
THE MULTILATERALISTS OF SUPPORT AND PARTNERS. REJECTING THE EU
CONSTITUTION WOULD STRENGTHEN THE UNILATERALISTS. WITH THE
U.S. CONTINUING TO PROMOTE EUROPE'S CONSTRUCTION ONLY WHERE IT
BENEFITS THEM: FREE TRADE, TURKEY'S EU MEMBERSHIP, BUT
DIVIDING EUROPE TO BETTER IMPOSE ITSELF WHERE ITS INTERESTS
ARE. A COHERENT EUROPE CAN HELP TO BUILD A BETTER WORLD IN AN
EQUAL PARTNERSHIP WITH THE U.S. A DIVIDED AND LESSER EUROPE
CAN ONLY LEAD TO THE PASSIVE VINDICTIVENESS OF THE IMPOTENT:
ANTI-AMERICANISM." WOLFF