FRANCE MOLLIFYING PROTESTORS TO LIMIT UNREST

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 002746

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD, DRL/IL AND INR/EUR
AND EB
DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB
DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI
SUBJECT: FRANCE MOLLIFYING PROTESTORS TO LIMIT UNREST
AFFECT ON REFERENDUM

REF: A. PARIS 2663 AND PREVIOUS


B. PARIS 1649


1. (SBU) Summary: Strikes and social unrest, while common in
France, have increased in recent months and could well
intensify as the May 29 referendum on the EU Constitution
approaches (reftel A). In order to deflect unpopularity
while still pursuing necessary changes, politicians have long
blamed Brussels technocrats and EU regulations for the
imposition of necessary reforms. Now, with a constitution
for the EU up for a vote, the tried-and-true "blame Brussels"
tactic is backfiring. Even though the number of protesters
is quite small, they could have a broader impact. Social
unrest and street protests on nightly newscasts across the
country have an unsettling effect on the public at large,
causing people to focus on their own economic problems and
concerns which, pollsters believe, would incline many to vote
'no' in the upcoming referendum. As a result, the GOF has
quietly tried to mollify several protesting groups and will
likely continue efforts to douse these fires with money as
May 29 approaches. The protest groups -- primarily state
workers and social subsidy recipients -- recognize the
pressure is on the government to engineer conditions that
will support a 'yes' victory on May 29, and will be merciless
about using this to leverage concessions out of the
government. Additional protests and events are planned in
the next five weeks; it remains to be seen if they will
become extensive and serious enough to affect referendum
results May 29. End summary.

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Politicians Trying to Quiet Current Protests...
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2. (U) Since the March 10 (reftel B) general strike, a
number of groups have continued to use the upcoming EU
referendum as the backdrop for pushing their protest agendas.
Government sensitivity about keeping unrest to a minimum has
helped many win unexpected concessions. At the end of March,
5 million civil servants, previously told that there was no
money in state coffers for additional wage increases,
received 0.8% above the 1% increase given to them two months
earlier -- along with a promise to revisit the salary issue
in the fall. Stock breeders have also received a
pre-referendum gift, with the state agreeing to subsidize
four additional annual vacation days (money to pay others to
mind the stock). Farmers, who only threatened to strike,
were given a six-month extension on subsidies to offset the
rise in oil prices. The government similarly set aside 10
million euros for a gasoline fund to end a strike by
fishermen, to which one spokesman for the industry responded,
"We were not heard," and added that this disappointment
"would be seen in the weeks to come." A three-week strike by
emergency room workers ended late April 20 with the promise
of an additional 15 million euros worth of hospital
improvements. Promises to begin salary negotiations on May
17 and to revisit the subject annually ended an 18-day strike
by Radio France workers on April 22. Wine growers, despite a
government pledge April 18 to double direct aid to struggling
growers, continue to protest, pointing specifically to
restrictions imposed by Brussels. "Europe brings us
nothing," said one wine grower. "Worse, it imposes an unfair
competition on us," he continued, complaining that EU limits
on wine production are enforced by French controlling bodies,
while illegal production allegedly continues unchecked in
Italy and Spain. Meanwhile, in Marseilles, a strike by
ferryboat workers -- which has become riot-like at times,
with cars set ablaze or thrown from ferries into the sea --
has completely shut down the ferry company that operates
between mainland France and the island of Corsica.

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... While More are in the Works
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3. (U) Despite government efforts to quell social unrest
during the run-up to the May 29 referendum, activists are
planning a variety of protest actions over the coming weeks.
May 1 Labor Day marches will give labor leaders a visible
platform, from which some will make the case for a 'yes' vote
May 29; but they will also pass in review the Raffarin
government's social policies, which they are certain to
depict as abysmal failures. France's major labor union
leaders have called for a 'yes' vote on May 29; many rank and
file members, however, support 'no.' Parliament will vote
May 12 on a law designed to make the French postal system
more cost effective. Previous plans to close branches and
trim jobs have sparked protests, and there is concern that
the parliamentary vote may be co-opted by the 'no' camp to
fuel anti-EU sentiment. One flash point of government/labor
opposition is a dispute over the elimination of a national
holiday: in response some 15,000 deaths, mostly among the
elderly, during the heat wave in the summer of 2003, the
government eliminated May 16, or Whit Monday, from the list
of national holidays in order to fund an initiative for the
handicapped and elderly. This move, too, has become a
rallying point for the discontented, and the Prime Minister
has called an April 29 meeting to discuss the issue (septel).
Activists have called on workers in all sectors not to
report for work on May 16 and to join protest marches
instead. Additional protests by scientists and researchers
are also rumored. Finally, on May 27, two days before the
referendum, the latest unemployment figures will be released.
At least one group, however, has canceled planned protest
activities. Turks living in France have called off a
scheduled march from Strasbourg to Paris to protest alleged
racist themes in the debate over Turkey's accession to the
EU, hoping to avoid fueling the very thing they are
protesting -- anti-Turkey sentiment.

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But At What Cost?
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4. (U) In light of recent events, some in France have begun
to wonder how many other voices will demand their share in
the next five weeks, while others have already begun
lamenting the cost. Center-right daily Le Figaro published
articles April 21 putting the price tag of silencing
protesters thus far at 450 million euros and climbing, and
speculated that more groups will leverage the coming
referendum to their advantage. One politician noted that, in
addition to the cost of organizing and carrying out the May
29 vote, the government ran the risk of both a 'no' vote and
the specter of additional, deficit-ballooning new
expenditures.

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Comment
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5. (SBU) The apparent willingness of the Raffarin government
to go to considerable lengths to quiet protesters with
handouts and concessions seems directly linked to the
unsettling effect that a wave of unrest could have on voters
at large in the run-up to the referendum May 29. In
addition, the government worries -- though this is a distant
possibility -- that the protests in the street could be
co-opted by the political opposition to the proposed
Constitution. Groups of left-wing 'no' advocates are regular
participants in the street marches and demonstrations;
representatives of the protest groups, however, have been
careful to distance themselves from the political advocates
of 'no' in order to keep the focus on their economic demands.
End comment.
WOLFF