Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05PARIS2733
2005-04-22 09:59:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Paris
Cable title:  

MEDIA REACTION REPORT - SECRETARY RICE TO RUSSIA -

Tags:  OPRC KMDR FR 
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 002733 

SIPDIS


DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY; BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; AF/PA;
EUR/WE /P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA; INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA
FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR
AND PASS USTR/PA; USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA;
ROME/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE.

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR FR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - SECRETARY RICE TO RUSSIA -
LITHUANIA - REGIONAL GEO-STRATEGY MIDDLE EAST - ELECTIONS IN
SAUDI ARABIA - DEMOCRATIZATION
PARIS - FRIDAY, APRIL 22, 2005

(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT:

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 002733

SIPDIS


DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY; BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; AF/PA;
EUR/WE /P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA; INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA
FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR
AND PASS USTR/PA; USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA;
ROME/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE.

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR FR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - SECRETARY RICE TO RUSSIA -
LITHUANIA - REGIONAL GEO-STRATEGY MIDDLE EAST - ELECTIONS IN
SAUDI ARABIA - DEMOCRATIZATION
PARIS - FRIDAY, APRIL 22, 2005

(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT:


1. SECRETARY RICE TO RUSSIA - LITHUANIA - REGIONAL GEO-
STRATEGY

2. MIDDLE EAST - ELECTIONS IN SAUDI ARABIA - DEMOCRATIZATION

B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE:

A VARIETY OF SUBJECTS ARE COVERED IN TODAY'S FRONT PAGES,
EDITORIALS AND REPORTS, WITH THE EU CONSTITUTION STILL VERY
MUCH IN THE LEAD. RIGHT-OF-CENTER WEEKLY L'EXPRESS PUBLISHES
THE LATEST POLL ON VOTER INTENTION, WHICH SHOWS THAT IF THE
REFERENDUM WERE CALLED THIS SUNDAY, 58 PERCENT WOULD VOTE
`NO,' UP 5 PERCENTAGE POINTS FROM A SIMILAR POLL IT CONDUCTED
TEN DAYS AGO; THE `YES' DROPS FROM 47 PERCENT TO 42 PERCENT.
THE SAME POLL INDICATES THAT CHIRAC ALSO LOST 2 PERCENTAGE
POINTS IN SUPPORT, FROM 50 TO 48 PERCENT; PM RAFFARIN DROPPED
THREE PERCENTAGE POINTS, FROM 31 TO 28 PERCENT.

IN AN INTERVIEW IN CATHOLIC LA CROIX, THE PRESIDENT OF THE
EUROPEAN UNION, JEAN-CLAUDE JUNCKER, CONFIRMS PREVIOUS REMARKS
FROM FRANCE'S EUROPEAN PARTNERS AND SAYS: "EUROPE NEEDS
FRANCE. A `NO' VOTE WOULD LEAD FRANCE TO LOSE SOME OF ITS
INFLUENCE. THE FRENCH ARE FORGETTING THAT FRANCE IS PERCEIVED
AS A MODEL. IF THE MODEL IS DISAPPOINTING, THEN THE FEELING OF
BITTERNESS IS THAT MUCH DEEPER." IN REGIONAL LES DERNIERES
NOUVELLES D'ALSACE, JEAN-CLAUDE KIEFER PENS AN EDITORIAL
TITLED "FRENCH AND EUROPEAN CRISIS." "EUROPE ALSO CONTRIBUTES
TO THE PREVAILING FUNK. IT IS TRUE, EUROPE NEEDS SERIOUSLY TO
BE SHAKEN UP, WHICH ONLY THE CONSTITUTION. WILL ALLOW. EXCUSE
MY FRENCH, BUT IT REALLY IS TIME TO PUT SOME ORDER IN THIS
PIGPEN, PROVIDED WE GIVE OURSELVES THE PROPER TOOLS. BUT NOT
BY SAYING `NO' TO THE CONSTITUTION. NOT BY THROWING THE BABY
OUT WITH THE BATH WATER."

SECRETARY RICE'S VISIT TO LITHUANIA IS NOTED IN LE FIGARO AND

SIPDIS
HER COMMENTS ON BELARUS REPORTED, WHILE IN A SEPARATE REPORT
LAURE MANDEVILLE ANALYZES THE REGIONAL POWER PLAY IN FORMER
SOVIET UNION STATES, INCLUDING IN CONNECTION TO THE GUAAM
SUMMIT. (SEE PART C)

LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION DEVOTES AN EDITORIAL COMMENTARY TO

YESTERDAY'S MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS IN SAUDI ARABIA, WHICH PATRICK
SABATIER CHARACTERIZES AS "A DESERT, BOTH GEOGRAPHICALLY AND
DEMOCRATICALLY SPEAKING." (SEE PART C)
(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES:

SECRETARY RICE TO RUSSIA - LITHUANIA - REGIONAL GEO-STRATEGY

SIPDIS

"RICE DREAMING OF A `REVOLUTION IN BELARUS'"
RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (04/22): "NO SOONER HER VISIT OVER
IN RUSSIA, WHERE SECRETARY RICE TRIED TO CONVINCE PUTIN THAT
THE U.S. WAS NOT TRYING TO `WEAKEN RUSSIA,' THE SECRETARY
`PICKED' ON BELARUS, SAYING THAT `THE TIME FOR CHANGE HAD
COME.' AND THAT LUKASHENKO'S REGIME WAS `EUROPE'S LAST
DICTATORSHIP.' SECRETARY RICE WENT EVEN FURTHER AND MET WITH
BELARUS OPPOSITION MEMBERS, WHOSE COURAGE SHE SAID SHE
ADMIRED. IF BELARUS WERE TO FALL INTO THE `ORANGE' CAMP, IT
WOULD BE A GEO-STRATEGIC CATASTROPHE FOR MOSCOW, WHICH COULD
TRIGGER AN INTERNAL RUSSIAN UPSET. PRESIDENT BUSH HAS JUST
SIGNED A `LAW FOR DEMOCRACY' WHICH ALLOWS WASHINGTON'S
FINANCING OF NGOS TASKED WITH DEMOCRATIZING BELARUS."

"STRUCTURE OF NEW INDEPENDENT STATES FALLING APART"
LAURE MANDEVILLE IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (04/22): "SINCE
THE `ORANGE REVOLUTION' IN UKRAINE, A GEO-STRATEGIC EARTHQUAKE
IS SHAKING THE FORMER SOVIET UNION, RESHAPING THE AREA TO THE
DETRIMENT OF RUSSIA'S POSITIONING. PROOF LIES IN THE RECENT
INTEREST FOR THE GUAAM SUMMIT. BEHIND THE SUMMIT'S AVOWED
PURPOSE, LIES ANOTHER MORE DISCREET PROJECT FOR POLITICAL AND
MILITARY COOPERATION. ONE OTHER TOPIC ON THE AGENDA IS THE
DESIRE TO TURN THE REGION OF THE BLACK SEA INTO `A BASIN FOR
DEMOCRACY.' THE AMERICANS, AS THE INFORMAL GODPARENTS OF THE
ORGANIZATION, ARE VERY MUCH PRESENT BEHIND THE SCENE. THE
CHAIN REACTION VELVET REVOLUTIONS IN THE REGION WORK IN FAVOR
OF WASHINGTON'S AMBITIONS IN EURASIA. EVEN IF IT WOULD BE
GOING TOO FAR TO SAY THAT THESE COUNTRIES ARE ONLY PUPPETS IN
WASHINGTON'S HANDS. MEANWHILE, FACED WITH THIS UNPRECEDENTED
GEO-STRATEGIC REBELLION IN WHAT RUSSIA CONSIDERS TO BE ITS
HOME GROUND, MOSCOW IS AT A COMPLETE LOSS. THE NIS, BUILT ON
THE RUINS ON THE FORMER SOVIET UNION IS, FOR ALL INTENTS AND
PURPOSES, CLINICALLY DEAD."

MIDDLE EAST - ELECTIONS IN SAUDI ARABIA - DEMOCRATIZATION

"OASIS"
PATRICK SABATIER IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION (04/22):
"GEOGRAPHICALLY AND DEMOCRATICALLY SPEAKING, SAUDI ARABIA IS A
DESERT. AFTER 9/11, THE COUNTRY WAS REVEALED TO BE A NEST FOR
GLOBAL ISLAMIC TERRORISM, AS SYMBOLIZED BY BIN LADEN. IN THIS
CONTEXT, A SECRET BALLOT ELECTION IS A REMARKABLE EVENT., EVEN
IF THE IMPACT WILL BE LIMITED, BECAUSE WOMEN WERE EXCLUDED
FROM IT. THE KINGDOM HAS IN FACT EMBARKED ON A COSMETIC
REFORM, MORE THAN ON DEMOCRATIZATION. THE ROYAL FAMILY HAS
FINALLY UNDERSTOOD THE DEADLY THREAT OF DOING NOTHING. THE
U.S., ITS TRADITIONAL ALLY, HAS MADE THE ISSUE OF
DEMOCRATIZING THE MIDDLE EAST AN IMPERATIVE FOR SECURITY.
SAUDI ARABIA'S CAUTIOUS ELECTORAL STEP GOES HAND IN HAND WITH
A FAULTLESS OPERATION OF REPRISAL AGAINST ISLAMIC TERRORISTS
WHO WANT TO TOPPLE A REGIME, WHICH IN THEIR EYES, IS TOO PRO-
WEST. YET THOSE WHO ARE WINNING THE ELECTION ARE ISLAMIC
CANDIDATES. THIS POLITICAL ISLAMISM IS ALSO FEEDING ON A
REJECTION OF THE WEST AND ITS INFLUENCE. WHETHER TERRORIST OR
POLITICAL, THE ISLAMIC MOVEMENT, IN SAUDI ARABIA AS IN OTHER
ARAB COUNTRIES, SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY ALTERNATIVE TO THE
PRESENT REGIME. THIS IS THE REAL CHALLENGE FACING WHAT SOME
HAVE BEEN CALLING THE `ARAB SPRING.' IT CAN LEAD TO AN OASIS
OF DEMOCRACY OR A SEASON IN HELL, LIKE IN ALGERIA." WOLFF