Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05PARIS2516
2005-04-13 15:47:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Paris
Cable title:  

KEY ISSUES IN FRANCE'S EU CONSTITUTION DEBATE

Tags:  PGOV ELAB EU FR ECON SOCI PINR 
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131547Z Apr 05
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 002516 

SIPDIS

DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD, DRL/IL AND INR/EUC
AND EB
DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB
DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR ECON SOCI PINR
SUBJECT: KEY ISSUES IN FRANCE'S EU CONSTITUTION DEBATE

REF: A. (A) PARIS 2205


B. (B) PARIS 2006

C. (C) PARIS 1998

D. (D) PARIS 1649

E. (E) PARIS 1106

F. (F) PARIS 1014

SUMMARY
-------
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 002516

SIPDIS

DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD, DRL/IL AND INR/EUC
AND EB
DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB
DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR ECON SOCI PINR
SUBJECT: KEY ISSUES IN FRANCE'S EU CONSTITUTION DEBATE

REF: A. (A) PARIS 2205


B. (B) PARIS 2006

C. (C) PARIS 1998

D. (D) PARIS 1649

E. (E) PARIS 1106

F. (F) PARIS 1014

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (SBU) The direction taken by France's debate on the
proposed EU Constitution has left many observers perplexed:
what, if anything, do unemployment and loss of purchasing
power, Turkey's possible accession to the EU, public service
unions unhappy with proposed reforms to 35 hour work week,
and widespread dissatisfaction with France's governing
institutions have to do with a decision about a proposed
Constitutional treaty for Europe? The debate over the
Constitution has become a lightening rod for the electorate's
discontent, and, for many voters, a plebiscite on Jacques
Chirac's leadership. What follows are capsule descriptions
of some of the issues that the French are talking about in
the context of the Constitutional vote. END SUMMARY.

LATEST POLLS
--------------

2. (SBU) According to a poll released April 12, the 'no'
vote continues to hold its lead among those who have decided
how they will vote -- by a margin of 53 percent to 47
percent. Between a fourth and a third of likely voters
remain undecided, although there have been at least thirteen
successive major polls since mid-March showing that a
majority of those who say they have made up their minds plan
to vote 'no'. When the 'no' overtook the 'yes' in the polls
March 18, it energized the campaigns of each camp. Since
then, as the debate has widened into TV appearances by
leading advocates of both camps, the main issues motivating
voters are becoming clear.

REFERENDUM AS PLEBISCITE ON CHIRAC
--------------

3. (SBU) A number of constituencies -- for example, public
sector employees in the transportation, health and education
sectors, as well as some government research center academics
and unionized workers in key ministries (including at the
Foreign Ministry) -- militantly support voting 'no' because

they are opposed to specific reforms proposed by the Raffarin
government. The nationwide general strike on March 10
(reftel C),led by public sector unions revealed the range
and variety of the constituencies opposed to specific reform
proposals of the Raffarin government, and, beyond that,
opposed to the economic liberalism and market mechanisms
(timidly) implicit in these reforms. Many of these voters
and their sympathizers are also intent on "voting against"
Jacques Chirac and the Raffarin government for partisan
reasons. Chirac now faces the real possibility that voters
will take the opportunity of the referendum to answer an
entirely different question -- whether the French people
continue to have confidence in him. (The historical
precedent, De Gaulle's failed referendum in 1969 which led to
his political demise weighs heavily on the French President.)
This evolution of the referendum into a plebiscite is
getting additional impetus from a rising populist tide
seeking to punish France's inaccessible, inbred, political
class no matter what temples are brought down in the process.

THE "LIBERAL" VS. THE "SOCIAL" EUROPE AND FRANCE
-------------- ---

4. (SBU) Social and economic issues, particularly
unemployment and loss of purchasing power, are principal
preoccupations for some voters. The debate over the proposed
Constitution (reftel A) has so far focused both on what to do
about domestic social and economic problems and disagreement
about how the Constitution might constrict France's options
in dealing with them. This core disagreement over a
"liberal" versus a "social" Europe and France catalyzed the
French assault on the Bolkestein directive (reftel B). NOTE:
In French usage, a "liberal" society is characterized by
individualism, relatively unregulated markets, largely
private sector provision of social services, and low taxes; a
"social" society is characterized by heavy regulation of
markets and environment, state responsibility for health,
education, etc. social services, and high taxes.) END NOTE.
The outcry in France over the Bolkestein directive reflected
both opposition to its "liberal bias" and to its imposition
by an ever more "foreign" Brussels. "Social" opponents of
the directive see it as epitomizing the proposed
Constitution's "liberal bias." Concerns about an
increasingly "foreign," liberal Europe are also often
associated with a retrospective questioning of the EU's
enlargement, which has reduced its political cohesion and its
potential as an international political heavyweight.

WIDESPREAD 'NO' TO TURKEY
--------------

5. (SBU) Considerable anti-Constitution sentiment among
voters is dominated by association of the proposed
Constitution with fear of uncontrolled Muslim immigration
from Turkey and worries over the headlong expansion of
Europe. The issue of Turkey reflects France's continuing
difficulties assimilating a large Muslim minority, widespread
popular rejection of an expanded Europe, and popular
resentment at not having been consulted about questions
relating to the "European construction." According to a poll
of the motivation of 'no' voters released March 26, 31
percent of those intending to vote 'no' say they plan do so
primarily because they "are opposed to Turkey's entry into
the EU."

DISMAY AT GOVERNMENT INEFFECTIVENESS
--------------

6. (SBU) Beyond dissatisfaction with current policies and
partisan opposition to the current government, a deeper
dismay at French institutions' inability to bring about
reform and make progress solving France's problems is also
fueling vote 'no' sentiment. Cutting across the entire
electorate, there is disappointment at long-standing
government ineffectiveness -- unemployment, for example, has
hovered at around 10 percent since well before President
Chirac's last re-election in 2002 -- which has led many to
give up hope that politicians and politics can solve the
problems that ordinary people consider the most important
ones. May has traditionally been a month of political
activism in France, prompting some 'yes' supporters to fear
the worst: that diffuse but widespread unhappiness with the
system as a whole could harden -- and be expressed as 'no'
votes on May 29.

THE U.S. AND THE REFERENDUM DEBATE
--------------

7. (SBU) How the proposed Constitution would (or would not)
in time make the EU an independent, political and military
world power -- "equal to the U.S. and China" is the most
common formulation -- comes up in the debate persistently but
less prominently than had been expected. Contrary to the
expectations, of the PS in particular, calling on voters to
support the proposed Constitution because it makes for a
"strong Europe facing the United States" has so far met with
little traction (reftels D, E and F). If anything, the 'no'
argument of both far-right "France First" sovereignist and
far-left anti-Americans, that the proposed Constitution
creates an "Atlanticist Europe dominated by the United
States," has had a higher profile.

FRANCE'S LEADERSHIP ROLE IN EUROPE
--------------

8. (SBU) The effect on France's traditional leadership role
in Europe, particularly damage to it should 'no' sentiment
prevail, is becoming a key preoccupation of 'yes' voters.
All pro-Constitution advocates, particularly President
Chirac, Prime Minister Raffarin and their supporters in the
press and parliament, stress that a 'no' victory May 29 would
severely undermine France's traditional leadership role in
Europe. It remains to be seen if appeals to vote 'yes' to
continue France's influence in shaping Europe will outweigh
widespread sentiment that the new Constitution represents the
opposite -- ratification of an enlarged and enlarging Europe
over which France has less and less of a political grip.

COMMENT
--------------

9. (SBU) France's debate over the proposed constitution has
generated linkages for voters among very disparate questions
-- with most having very little directly to do with the
Constitution. It has done so as the country's social and
economic problems have become more acute, and national
confidence that they can be solved has diminished. We will
elaborate further on these and other issues as the countdown
continues towards Referendum Day, May 29. END COMMENT.
LEACH