MEDIA REACTION REPORT - IRAQ - ELECTIONS DARFUR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 002217

SIPDIS


DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY; BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; AF/PA;
EUR/WE /P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA; INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA
FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR
AND PASS USTR/PA; USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA;
ROME/PA; BRUSSELS/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE.

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR FR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - IRAQ - ELECTIONS DARFUR
SYRIA - UN AGREEMENT ON LEBANON ZIMBABWE ELECTIONS
PARIS - MONDAY, APRIL 04, 2005


(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT:


1. IRAQ - ELECTIONS

2. DARFUR

3. SYRIA - UN AGREEMENT ON LEBANON

4. ZIMBABWE ELECTIONS

B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE:

THE OVERWHELMING COVERAGE DEVOTED TO THE LIFE AND DEATH OF
POPE JOHN PAUL II LEAVES LITTLE ROOM TO OTHER STORIES. RIGHT-
OF-CENTER LE FIGARO ON SATURDAY CARRIED AN INTERVIEW WITH
FORMER SECRETARY OF STATE COLIN POWELL, AND MONDAY'S LEFT-OF-
CENTER LIBERATION CARRIES TWO OP-EDS, ONE DEVOTED TO AMERICA'S
INTERVENTION IN IRAQ AND THE AFTERMATH OF THE IRAQI ELECTIONS,
THE OTHER DEVOTED TO DARFUR AND TO HOW AMERICA'S OPPOSITION TO
THE INTERNATIONAL CRIMES COURT HAS DELAYED THE UN VOTE. (SEE
PART C)

RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO CARRIES A REPORT ON MUGABE'S RE-
ELECTION IN ZIMBABWE AND ONE ON THE AGREEMENT REACHED AT THE
UN ON SYRIA'S WITHDRAWAL FROM LEBANON. (SEE PART C)

(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES:

IRAQ - ELECTIONS

"IRAQ, A PHASE FOR COMPROMISES"
ZAKI LAIDI IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION (04/04): "UNTIL THE
ELECTIONS, OUR COLLECTIVE JUDGMENT ON THE SITUATION IN IRAQ
WAS THAT THE U.S. INTERVENTION WAS PRACTICALLY A COMPLETE
FAILURE. TODAY, AFTER THE FALL OF SADDAM'S REGIME AND THE
ELECTIONS, IT IS NO LONGER POSSIBLE TO LOOK ON THE IRAQI
SITUATION WITH SUCH PESSIMISM. WE MUST ACKNOWLEDGE A MAJOR
POLITICAL FACT: THE ELECTIONS HAVE OPENED THE WAY TO A NEW
POLITICAL DYNAMIC IN IRAQ. THE ELECTIONS WERE A SUCCESS
BECAUSE, FOR TWO THIRDS OF THE IRAQI POPULATION, IT WAS AN
OPPORTUNITY TO BE HEARD. WHILE THE VOTE DOES NOT OPEN AN
AVENUE TO DEMOCRACY, IT DOES OPEN A DOOR. TO A CULTURE OF
COMPROMISE, WHICH IS A MAJOR INGREDIENT IN THE CULTURE OF
DEMOCRACY. THE AMERICANS, FOR THEIR PART, HAVE LEARNED GREATLY
FROM THEIR INTERVENTION, WHICH MILITARILY SPEAKING REMAINS A
MIDRANGE INTERVENTION. THEY LEARNED QUICKLY THAT THEIR
SOLDIERS IN BAGHDAD WERE NOT THE MOST CREDIBLE AND SOON
ACCEPTED TO COMPOSE WITH OTHERS. THE IRAQIS RE-CAPTURED THE
ELECTIONS, A FACT WHICH CAN ONLY MAKE THE U.S. HAPPY, AT LEAST
FOR THE TIME BEING. IF THE TRANSITION PROCEEDS WELL, THE
QUESTION OF U.S. TROOP WITHDRAWAL WILL SOON BE AN ISSUE. THE
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TO FIND A BALANCE BETWEEN WASHINGTON'S
DESIRE TO HAVE A POLITICAL BASE IN IRAQ, AND THE IRAQI
POLITICAL FORCES' NEED FOR A U.S. PRESENCE AS AN ARBITER.
AMERICA CAN BECOME THE REFEREE OF IRAQ'S INTERNAL POLITICAL
GAME, WHICH IS WASHINGTON'S GOAL, WITHOUT GIVING THE
IMPRESSIONS IT IS SOMETHING IMPOSED FROM THE OUTSIDE. IF THIS
SCENARIO SUCCEEDS, AMERICA'S INTERVENTION IN IRAQ WILL MARK A
MAJOR CHANGE IN INTERNATIONAL WORLD ORDER, CONFIRMING
AMERICA'S ABILITY TO OPERATE SUCH CHANGES AROUND THE WORLD
WHENEVER ITS INTERESTS ARE AT STAKE. IF THIS HYPOTHESIS IS
CONFIRMED, OUR OPINION OF THE INTERVENTION WILL,
RETROSPECTIVELY, BE GREATLY MODIFIED. OUR OPINION WILL ITSELF
INCREASE AMERICA'S POWER AROUND THE WORLD AS WELL AS THE FEAR
IT CAN INSTILL. THE ABSENCE OF DEMOCRACY IS INDEED THE ARAB
WORLD'S PLAGUE. WE HAVE TO CREDIT THE AMERICANS FOR STATING
THIS OBVIOUS FACT, EVEN IF THEIR METHODS ARE AT TIMES BRUTAL
AND THE POLICIES CONTRADICTORY."

DARFUR

"DARFUR: AMERICA'S INERTIA"
JACQUES AMALRIC IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION (04/04): "TIME IS
PRESSING IN DARFUR, IF THOSE WHO SAID `NEVER AGAIN' AFTER THE
RWANDA MASSACRES WANT TO BE CREDIBLE. THE UN SECURITY COUNSEL
DILLY-DALLIED FOR OVER TWO MONTHS BEFORE ADOPTING THE
RESOLUTION ON THE ICC AND DARFUR CRIMINALS. THE U.S. IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS DELAY BECAUSE OF ITS REFUSAL TO RECOGNIZE
THE COURT'S JURISDICTION. THIS IS WHAT IS CALLED THE KISSINGER
SYNDROME. TO SATISFY THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION, THE EUROPEAN
MEMBERS OF THE UNSC ACCEPTED A CERTAIN CATEGORY OF U.S.
PERSONNEL TO BE EXEMPTED FROM POTENTIAL FUTURE PURSUITS,
LEADING TO WASHINGTON'S ABSTENTION, RATHER THAN A VETO."

SYRIA - UN AGREEMENT ON LEBANON

"AGREEMENT ON A WITHDRAWAL"
PIERRE PRIER IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (04/04): "ON PAPER,
DAMASCUS HAS MADE MAJOR CONCESSIONS. DOES THIS MEAN THAT A
PAGE HAS BEEN TURNED IN DAMASCUS, CLOSING THE EPISODE OF
CONFRONTATION BETWEEN SYRIA AND THE UN? DOES THIS MEAN A DOOR
HAS BEEN OPENED ON A NEW PHASE IN WHICH SYRIA WILL BE
GRATIFIED WITH NEGOTIATIONS OVER ITS LOST TERRITORIES? FOR
SYRIA'S FM, THE ANSWER IS DEFINITELY YES. BUT FOR THE UN,
THINGS ARE NOT SO SIMPLE. IN SPITE OF THE SIGNS OF GOODWILL
SHOWN DURING THE PRESS CONFERENCE, NEGOTIATIONS WERE VERY
TIGHT. THE TRIANGULAR GAME BETWEEN SYRIA, LEBANON AND THE UN,
WITH THE SUPPORT OF THE U.S. AND FRANCE, SEEMS FAR FROM OVER.
FOR SYRIA, THE SIGNED AGREEMENT IS AN END IN ITSELF. BUT THE
UN REMAINS WATCHFUL ABOUT THE IMPLEMENTATION OF SYRIA'S
PROMISES AND WILL NOT BE SATISFIED WITH APPEARANCES. FOR THE
UN, WASHINGTON AND PARIS, THE STORY DOES NOT END HERE.
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE WITHDRAWAL IS COMPLETE AND
CAN BE VERIFIED, AND UNTIL THE ELECTORAL PROCESS IN LEBANON IS
ACHIEVED."

ZIMBABWE ELECTIONS

"MUGABE'S VICTORY: NO SURPRISE"
CAROLINE DUMAY IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (04/04): "MUGABE'S
VICTORY IS A SURPRISE FOR NO ONE. HE COMES FROM THE COUNTRY'S
MAJORITY ETHNIC GROUP AND HAS AN UNDENIABLE HOLD ON RURAL
AREAS. MUGABE'S MESSAGE TO BLAIR, THE EU AND ALL THOSE WHO
HAVE ACCUSED HIM OF BREAKING DEMOCRATIC RULES, IS QUITE CLEAR:
HE IS THE UNDISPUTED LEADER IN HIS COUNTRY." LEACH