'YES' VS. 'NO' -- THE FRENCH REFERENDUM DEBATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 002205

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/31/2010
TAGS: ECON ELAB EU FR PGOV PINR SOCI
SUBJECT: 'YES' VS. 'NO' -- THE FRENCH REFERENDUM DEBATE


Classified By: Minister Counselor for Political Affairs Josiah Rosenbla
tt for reason 1.4 (b) and (d)

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (SBU) The deepening debate in France over the EU
Constitution has highlighted the divisions within the
center-right and center-left coalitions that dominate the
country's political scene. Overall, to be in favor of the
proposed Constitution is seen as supporting business-as-usual
-- to favor taking the next, long-planned step in the
construction of Europe and to confirm in power the political
elite (both left and right) that has been nearly unanimous in
its support for Europe for the last quarter century.
Overall, to be against the proposed Constitution is seen as
objecting to both the workability and direction of the EU.
The EU's continued enlargement is seen as making for a more
diffuse, less cohesive and effective EU as an international
political player -- and one in which France will lose its
pre-eminence. For many on the center-left, to vote 'no' is
also to vote against President Chirac, expressing
dissatisfaction with his and Prime Minister Raffarin's
economic and social policies. END SUMMARY.

ULTRA-CONSERVATIVES VS. CONSERVATIVES WITHIN THE CENTER-RIGHT
-------------- --------------

2. (SBU) The center-right, led by the Union for a Popular
Movement (UMP) party -- and its electorate -- largely favor
the proposed Constitution. Latest polls show that among
voters who identify themselves as right-of-center, likely
'yes' voters outnumber likely 'no' voters by about 60 percent
to 40 percent. The ultra-conservative fringe of the
center-right, the traditionalist faction led by Phillippe de
Villiers, opposes the proposed Constitution and has centered
its 'vote no' campaign on the issue of Turkey's eventual
accession to the EU.


3. (SBU) Tellingly, the center right's most popular figure,
UMP president and former Finance Minister Nicolas Sarkozy,
has been equally firm in his support for the Constitution and
in his opposition to Turkey's membership in the EU.
Sarkozy's position -- 'yes' to the Constitution, 'no' to
Turkey -- is the same as that of Francois Bayrou, leader of
the small, centrist Union for French Democracy (UDF) party.
The factor that energizes the "the question of Turkey," as
the French refer to the issue, is popular fear of unlimited
Muslim immigration to France and uneasy coexistence with the
5 million Muslims already in the country. A critical mass of
center-right voters seem to have accepted the position of
Sarkozy (and Bayrou),and have separated the issue of
accepting the proposed Constitution from the issue of whether
or not 69 million Turks should, eventually, become citizens
of the EU.

RADICALS VS. MODERATES WITHIN THE CENTER-LEFT
--------------

4. (SBU) The center-left Socialist Party (PS) -- and its
electorate -- is deeply divided. The socialist moderates,
led by party National Secretary Francois Hollande and former
Finance Minister Dominique Strauss-Kahn, see the proposed
Constitution as a necessary, if flawed, platform for pursuing
social justice and solidarity ("l'Europe sociale") in ways
that will be binding in all EU member states. The moderates'
'vote yes' campaign focuses on this common purpose with
socialists in the other member states and on those provisions
of the proposed Constitution (charter of social rights,
protection of social services, etc.) that are of socialist
inspiration. The trend in the polls is that agreement with
the arguments of center-left moderates have lost considerable
ground among left-leaning voters.


5. (SBU) The 'no' sentiment among center-left voters is
driven by apprehension over diminishing job security and
social services, compounded by a range of anti-government and
anti-elite feelings. The leaders of the 'no' camp on the
left -- former Budget Minister Henri Emmanuelli and Senator
Jean-Luc Melenchon -- have succeeded in channeling this
disquiet over the economic situation and antipathy towards
corporate interests, Euro-technocrats and globalization into
opposition to the proposed Constitution, specifically, the
way -- they allege -- that it establishes unfettered
"ultra-liberal" capitalism in Europe. The intensity of the
'no' versus 'yes' debate among socialist voters stems from
the way the 'no' camp has made it a showdown between those
faithful to socialist ideals (themselves) and the moderates
whom they accuse of selling out.


6. (C) The 'yes' camp on the left counters that both moving
forward with a European socialist agenda and normalizing
center-right/center-left alternation in power in France
requires abandoning the contestatory, to-the-barricades
maximalism of 'old left' ideals. Among the socialists' voter
base -- many of them union members and government employees
in the beleaguered public health and education systems -- the
moderates' realism is emotionally unsatisfying. However, the
socialist 'yes' camp arguments did win over, with difficulty,
59 percent of the 120,000 active members of the Socialist
Party at the time of the party's internal referendum on the
proposed Constitution last December. The most recent polls
show that over 40 percent of likely voters remain undecided;
the bulk of these are found among France's 12 million or so
socialist sympathizers. It remains to be seen if the
arguments of the 'yes' supporters on the left -- abetted by
the intervention of President Chirac -- will again succeed,
winning over enough left-of-center voters to tip the scales
in favor of 'yes' on referendum day May 29.

LATEST POLL RESULTS
--------------

7. (U) An Ifop-Paris Match poll released March 31 shows the
'no' camp holding its lead over the 'yes' camp, 53 percent
'no' to 47 percent 'yes'. This is a slight narrowing -- from
55/45 percent respectively -- of the 'no' lead registered in
polls a week before. The March 31 poll also shows that 54
percent of respondents say they have decided how they are
going to vote and 43 percent say they remain undecided (3
percent have no reply to question). Among those who say they
can still change their mind, the bulk are on the center-left
(Socialist Party and Greens sympathizers).


8. (U) In addition, the poll shows that on the far left and
far right ends of the political spectrum (Communist party and
National Front party sympathizers) the split is 25 percent
'yes' and 75 percent 'no'. Within the center-left and center
(Socialist Party and Union for French Democracy party) the
split is 55 percent 'yes' and 45 percent 'no'. On the
center-right (Union for a Popular Movement party
sympathizers) the split is 77 percent 'yes' and 23 percent
'no'. This poll also shows that the proposed Constitution is
favored by about three-fifths of old people and young people.
Among the thirty-somethings and the middle aged, however,
'no' sentiment prevails by 56 percent to 44 percent. This
poll also confirms what has long been known, that industrial
workers and service employees at the low end of the wage
scale, along with rural folk, tend towards 'no' by a
significant three fifths to two fifths. Interestingly, among
those polled, 49 percent say the 'yes' will win and 38
percent say the 'no' will win (13 percent have no reply to
the question).




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