MUBARAK IN PARIS: CHIRAC URGES KEEPING PRESSURE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 002041

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/25/2015
TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV AORC KWBG EG FR
SUBJECT: MUBARAK IN PARIS: CHIRAC URGES KEEPING PRESSURE
ON SYRIA


Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Receiving Egyptian President Mubarak in Paris
24, President Jacques Chirac stressed the necessity of maintaining
pressure on Syria until it withdraws its armed forces and
intelligence services fully from Lebanon, before elections this spring.
Mubarak, who had met Syrian President Bashar Al-Asad at the March 22-23
Arab League Summit in Algiers, said Bashar had promised to complete the
withdrawal; the Egyptian president added that he believed Syria
would submit a precise timetable for its withdrawal to the UN within a
week. An advisor to Chirac who was present told us that Mubarak made a
pitch for Egypt's candidacy for a permanent seat on the UN
Council, receiving a noncommittal French response. On the Israeli-
Palestinian conflict, Mubarak recalled his role in hosting the
Abbas meeting in Sharm el-Sheikh and in bringing Palestinian
groups together, but was circumspect about the possibility of Sharon
taking the next step after Gaza withdrawal, given what Mubarak assessed
to be Sharon's tenuous domestic political standing. He commented that
Jordan would have been better able to manage its proposal for Arab stat
normalization with Israel if King Abdallah had attended the
Algiers summit. Mubarak deflected questions about Ayman Nour, the only
declared opposition candidate for the September presidential
elections in Egypt, by claiming that there was incontrovertible evidenc
of Nour's involvement in fraud. Mubarak reportedly evinced "a little
exasperation" with U.S. efforts to persuade him to move more
forthrightly on political reform. He was pessimistic on Iraq, believin
the security situation was still far from being under control. End
summary.

Chirac's main message: Syria must leave Lebanon


2. (C) President Chirac met first with Mubarak one-on-one to
discuss Syria/Lebanon, Elysee Advisor for the Middle East and North
Africa Dominique Boche told us March 25. Chirac's central message was
to encourage Mubarak to keep the pressure on Syria for full military
and intelligence services withdrawal from Lebanon as soon as possible,
and certainly before the spring elections. Chirac emphasized that the
international community "could not stop half-way" in its efforts
to compel Syria to comply with UN Security Council Resolution 1559. To
do so would only invite the Syrians to delay and re-establish themselve
indefinitely in Lebanon. Both in his response to Chirac, and in
an interview he gave to the French daily Le Figaro, which appeared
March 25, Mubarak said he believed Syria would complete its withdrawal
soon. He recalled that he had met Bashar at the just-concluded Arab
League Summit in Algiers and Bashar had promised him that he would
complete the withdrawal. Mubarak told Chirac (and Le Figaro) that he
believed Syria would submit a precise timetable for the withdrawal to
the UN within a week. He said he had pressed Bashar hard in their
meeting, warning him that he was isolated internationally and that he
had to conform with 1559, according to Boche. Bashar also promised not
to interfere in Lebanon's election, Mubarak told Le Figaro.


3. (C) Boche said that since he was not in the one-on-one
meeting he did not know whether Chirac discussed with Mubarak the two
recent bombings in Christian communities near Beirut. The Egyptian
president told Le Figaro, which did ask the question, that people shoul
be cautious about assigning blame for these attacks to Syria. He said
that a few such incidents were not unusual, given the circumstances in
Lebanon, and that he did not believe they would lead to renewed civil
war. Asked by the newspaper about the investigation into the
assassination of former Prime Minister Hariri, Mubarak did not mention
Syria, assigning no blame to Damascus for either omission or commission
Instead, he evoked the possibility of a shadowy "foreign hand" intent
on "sowing discord or setting a trap for Syria. Anything is possible,"
Mubarak asserted. As with the bombings, Boche told us he did not know
whether Chirac raised the investigation or the Fitzgerald report with
Mubarak.

Mubarak's pitch for a permanent UNSC seat for Egypt


4. (C) During the luncheon, at which Boche was present, Mubarak
made a concerted appeal for French support for Egypt's bid for a
permanent UNSC seat. Mubarak acknowledged that Egypt had gotten a late
start in promoting its candidacy. He argued that a continent as large
and diverse as Africa could not be represented on the Security Council
exclusively by two sub-Saharan, Anglophone states. In a pitch which
struck Boche as amusing, in as much as it was delivered in English,
Mubarak told Chirac that Egypt would speak for North African and
francophone interests, and thus contribute to a more complete reflectio
of the continent's diversity. Mubarak suggested that Egypt be part of a
rotation of holders of an African permanent seat, and made no reference
to Egypt or any other African state having the veto. Boche said Chirac
responded noncommittally, suggesting to Mubarak that it was up to the
candidate countries to promote their own candidacies. Privately, Boche
said, France is skeptical about the rotating seat concept.


5. (C) Mubarak recalled his role in hosting the meeting between
Israeli Prime Minister Sharon and Palestinian Authority President Abbas
in Sharm el-Sheikh and in assembling rival Palestinian groups in
Egypt for dialogue. He deflected a question from Le Figaro as to
whether he would invite Sharon to Cairo, saying he had invited him to
Sharm, "and that's in Egypt, isn't it," Mubarak quipped. When the
journalist pressed, Mubarak said that "Sharon would be well advised to
give something to (improve) Palestinian public opinion. That would hel
us to reinforce our cooperation." Privately, Mubarak told Chirac that
he was not confident that Sharon would proceed with withdrawal from the
West Bank once the Gaza withdrawal was completed because of what Mubara
assessed to be Sharon's tenuous domestic political standing. He added
that he thought the U.S. role in encouraging Israel to move forward wit
the process was essential. Boche said that Egyptian-Israeli cooperatio
on patrolling their common border once Israeli forces began to pull out
of Gaza was not discussed. Mubarak was asked about this by Le Figaro,
replying that Israel had not yet agreed to such discussions. Mubarak
told Chirac that Jordan would have been better placed to try to advance
its proposal for Arab state normalization with Israel had King Abdallah
attended the Arab League Summit. Mubarak appeared irritated that so
many of his fellow Arab heads of state, including several of the most
moderate, had stayed away from Algiers, leaving him with the likes of
Qaddhafi and Bashar, Boche said. Mubarak told Le Figaro that the
Jordanian proposal had come as a surprise to Arab Leaders and "appeared
to be a retreat from the recommendations of the 2002 Beirut (Arab
League) Summit, which we want to reactivate."

Arab reform


6. (C) Mubarak also appeared to take umbrage with what he
implied was undue U.S. pressure for democratic reform in the Arab world
and specifically in Egypt, according to Boche. Chirac asked about the
situation of Ayman Nour, the only declared opposition candidate
for September's presidential election in Egypt, to which Mubarak
replied that Nour had been arrested because there was solid evidence of
his involvement in fraud. Mubarak asserted that he had initiated
reform in Egypt 20 years ago. Egypt, he said, was a great nation and
did not need advice from anyone on how to manage its internal affairs,
Boche said. Asked about U.S. pressure for reform by Le Figaro, Mubarak
avoided controversy, saying reports that he was coming under pressure
from the U.S. were "not true." He went on to tell the newspaper, with
regard to the "Kefaya" protest, that "certain movements are piloted fro
outside." Mubarak declined to state whether he would be a candidate for
re-election and said there was "no truth" to reports that his son,
Gamal, would be a candidate. He told the newspaper that the continuing
state of emergency, in place since 1981, was necessary to combat
terrorism. He also said he opposed term limits for the president
because this would "hinder the free will of the people." Nor could he
accept any limitation of the powers of the president because this would
mean that the prime minister "would be subject to pressures which he
could not face up to," adding that "the president of the republic is th
guarantee of stability."

Iraq


7. (C) Finally, on Iraq, Mubarak publicly welcomed the January
elections as "clearly a good thing for Iraq" and encouraged Sunnis "to
participate in the political process and the elaboration of a
constitution." Privately, Mubarak told Chirac that he was not optimisti
about Iraq's future because the security situation was far from being
under control.

Wolff