PARTY OFFICIAL IN CHARGE OF SOCIALIST PARTY 'YES'

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 001998

SIPDIS

DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD, DRL/IL AND INR/EUC
DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB
DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2015
TAGS: ECON ELAB EU FR PGOV PINR SOCI
SUBJECT: PARTY OFFICIAL IN CHARGE OF SOCIALIST PARTY 'YES'
CAMPAIGN ACKNOWLEDGES ANTI-AMERICAN THEME IN CAMPAIGN WAS
INCLUDED TO PLACATE 'HARD LEFT' ELEMENT IN SOCIALIST
ELECTORATE

REF: A. A) PARIS 1106

B. (B) PARIS 1014

Classified By: Minister Counselor for Political Affairs Josiah Rosenbla
tt for reason 1.4 (b) and (d)

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (C) At a meeting with PolOff on March 16, Francois
Rebsamen, Mayor of Dijon and Socialist Party (PS) official in
charge of the party's campaign to mobilize left-leaning
voters to vote 'yes' in the upcoming referendum on the EU
Constitution, acknowledged that the "Yes, for a strong Europe
against the United States" theme (reftels) in the PS's
campaign was included "in order not to lose" the hard-left,
anti-American wing of the party. Rebsamen said the about 5
percent of left-leaning voters in France were "strongly
anti-American" seeing the U.S. as a "militaristic power", and
that about 25 percent of left-leaning voters were "culturally
anti-American," resentful of (but resigned to) the ubiquitous
American influences on nearly everything in French life.
Rebsamen stressed that the "Thank-God-for-the-Americans
reflex," -- the gratitude felt by the French for the U.S.
role in WWII -- "was still very strong," and implied that
Americans should not underestimate the power of that in a
"historically conscious nation" like France. Rebsamen, a
key member of the party leadership that has coalesced around
party First Secretary Francois Hollande, said that Hollande
was steadily "gaining in stature" among party members, and
that Hollande's successful spokesmanship in the upcoming
referendum campaign would re-inforce his claim to lead the
party in the presidential elections of 2007. Rebsamen said
that, despite the "completely unexpected" strong and angry
current of popular sentiment against the proposed EU
Constitution, left-of-center voters would "pull themselves
together" before the moment of truth on May 29, and the
proposed Constitution would pass. END SUMMARY.


PROVENANCE OF ANTI-AMERICAN THEME IN PS YES CAMPAIGN
-------------- --------------

2. (C) Francois Rebsamen is the PS official in charge of the
design and coordination of the party's campaign to motivate
center-left voters to vote 'yes' to the proposed EU
Constitution in the referendum May 29. His party position is
National Secretary in Charge of Federations and Education.
One of the themes of the PS campaign is "Yes, to a Europe
that can stand up to the United States" ("Oui, a une Europe
forte face aux Etats Unis") (reftel B). As soon as it became
public that such a singling out the U.S. would be appearing
on posters, websites, etc. Ambassador and DCM objected to the
Socialist Party leadership (reftel A) that encouraging French
voters to support the proposed Constitution against the U.S.
was damaging to trans-Atlantic relations. PolOff re-iterated
this message to Rebsamen on March 16. Rebsamen, as have
other party leaders in response to Embassy objections,
claimed unconvincingly that this element in the campaign was
not anti-American because informed decisions about Europe's
future on the world stage require consideration of other
powers on that stage, especially the U.S. Promptly belying
this assertion, Rebsamen acknowledged that the decision to
include this theme in the campaign was intended "to show the
anti-American faction in the party that we were with them.
Otherwise we could lose them to the 'no' vote," Rebsamen
explained. In Rebsamen's view, consideration of the U.S.
role in the world in the referendum debate about the future
of Europe is substantively relevant and politically
expedient.

ESTIMATED STRENGTH OF CENTER-LEFT, ANTI-AMERICANISM
-------------- --------------

3. (C) Rebsamen said the "between 5 and 7 percent of
socialists are strongly anti-American, perceiving the U.S. as
a threatening, primarily military "hyperpower" (in the phrase
coined by Socialist, former Foreign Minister Hubert Vedrine).
Rebsamen added that he estimated that "about 25 percent of
socialists are culturally anti-American;" by which he meant
those who resent the way influences of American origin are
all-pervasive part-and-parcel of globalization, including in
France. Rebsamen said that he believed that these estimates
applied both to Socialist Party members -- about 120,000
persons -- and to the Socialist electorate at large -- about
12 million persons. (In the 2004 regional elections, of
nearly 41 million registered voters, almost 30 percent voted
for PS candidates).

DAMPENING THE ANTI-AMERICAN RHETORIC
--------------

4. (C) Rebsamen said that these voters were highly sensitive
to the argument that Europe should be strong and united
enough to be able to hold its own vis-a-vis the U.S. He made
no bones about admitting that the possibility of losing a
significant portion of these voters to the 'no' camp prompted
the party leadership to go ahead with this campaign theme.
Rebsamen, as have Hollande and other party leaders, went on
to underline that in public statements and in campaign
rallies discussion of the U.S. would remain "on a high plane"
-- focused on debating Europe's role in world with respect to
other centers of power "such as the U.S. and China," and not
descending to slanted, inflammatory polemics about current
U.S. policies and leaders. COMMENT: So far, in speeches and
TV appearances that Embassy is aware of, PS leaders have been
true to their word. Their evocation of "the strong Europe
able to stand up to the U.S." theme has been low key,
presented as a long-term issue and deliberately given less
prominence than other 'yes' campaign themes, such as standing
with the other Socialist parties of Europe in supporting the
proposed Constitution and voting for the "Charter of Social
Rights" included in the proposed Constitution. END COMMENT.

RISING TIDE OF 'NO' -- "NOT WHAT WE EXPECTED"
--------------

5. (C) Rebsamen said that the vociferous, rising tide of
anti-Constitution sentiment was "not what we expected,"
particularly among socialists after the internal, party
referendum last December, when Francois Hollande and the
'yes' camp won the party's endorsement of the proposed
Constitution by a handsome majority (58 percent). Rebsamen
added that the strength of 'no' sentiment had "surprised
everybody" -- from President Chirac to the opposition party
leaders who had demanded a referendum, assuming it would pass
easily. Two polls, released respectively on March 18 and
March 21, showed that among those who had decided how they
would vote, the percentage of possible 'no' voters had
surpassed that of yes voters for the first time -- by 52 to
48 percent in the most recent poll. However, all the polls
also show that the number of undecided voters also continues
to remain high, at between 30 and 40 percent. Rebsamen
admitted that winning the referendum was going to be "much,
much harder than expected," but that, in the end, he was
quite certain that voters would "pull themselves together,"
separate the range of their complaints about France's
economic stagnation and political class from the matter at
issue in the referendum, and vote for France's leadership
role in Europe by endorsing the proposed Constitution.

COMMENT
--------------

6. (C) In the PS, the referendum and its results are seen
as setting the stage for selection of the party's
presidential candidate for 2007. PS party rules require that
the party candidate be selected by vote of the party members,
who have a record of making independent choices (for example,
prior to the presidential elections of 1995, party members
rejected the candidate endorsed by the party leadership,
Henri Emmanueli, and elected his self-appointed challenger,
Lionel Jospin). Rebsamen, though he had earlier been a
supporter of party number two Laurent Fabius (an outspoken
advocate of 'no'),has emerged as a key member of the group
of party leaders close to party First Secretary Francois
Hollande. Not surprisingly, Rebsamen sees a successful
referendum campaign, led by Hollande, as strengthening
Hollande's claim to be the party's standard bearer in 2007.
A solid 'yes' victory May 29, particularly if supported by a
majority of center-left voters, would give Hollande that much
more credibility among party faithful. Any other result
however, including a very close 'yes' victory, would leave
the door wide open to Hollande's principal challengers for
the endorsement of party members -- former Finance Minister
Dominique Strauss-Kahn and former Prime Minister Laurent
Fabius, as well as the "retired" non-candidate former Prime
Minister Lionel Jospin. Neither Fabius nor Strauss-Kahn is
popular among the party's rank-and-file. Former Foreign
Minister Vedrine, for example, is among those PS members who
are convinced that, should Hollande's support among party
members founder, only Jospin can garner a solid majority of
party member votes. Socialist party operatives report that
in mid-April Jospin is scheduled to return to the public eye
in a series of appearances calling on socialists to vote
'yes.' His re-appearance before the party faithful, despite
his protestations that he does not seek a leadership
position, will suggest to Socialist voters that the man polls
consistently show as the toughest candidate for the
center-right to beat could be drafted in extremis. Should
that happen, Jospin's detractors will accuse him of having
carefully positioned himself to appear on the scene at just
the right moment to unify a deeply divided party. END
COMMENT.
Wolff