MEDIA REACTION REPORT - IRAQ: FORMATION OF NEW

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 001754

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DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY; BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; AF/PA;
EUR/WE /P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA; INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA
FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR
AND PASS USTR/PA; USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA;
ROME/PA; BRUSSELS/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE.

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR FR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - IRAQ: FORMATION OF NEW
GOVERNMENT SECRETARY RICE TO ASIA
PARIS - WEDNESDAY, MARCH 16, 2005

(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT:


1. IRAQ: FORMATION OF NEW GOVERNMENT

2. SECRETARY RICE TO ASIA

B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE:

FRONT-PAGES AND SEVERAL EDITORIALS ARE DEVOTED TO THE EUROPEAN
UNION'S BOLKESTEIN DIRECTIVE, A MEASURE AFFECTING THE SERVICE
SECTOR AND WHICH, ACCORDING TO SOME, IS BEING USED AND ABUSED
BY THE PROPONENTS OF THE "NO" ON THE EU CONSTITUTION
REFERENDUM. PRESIDENT CHIRAC IS QUOTED AS CALLING THE
DIRECTIVE "UNACCEPTABLE." YVES THREARD IN LE FIGARO CRITICIZES
THE "OPPORTUNISM" AND "DEVIOUSNESS" OF THE BOLKENSTEIN
DETRACTORS. IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION, JEAN-MICHEL THENARD
ASKS: "IS IT SO HARD TO FIND SOMETHING TO CRITICIZE IN THE
EUROPEAN CONSTITUTION THAT ITS ADVERSARIES ARE GOING ELSEWHERE
TO FIND AMMUNITION TO SCARE THE VOTERS?"

IRAQ AND THE IMPORTANCE OF TODAY'S HISTORIC PARLIAMENTARY
SESSION IN BAGHDAD ARE NOTED. FOR ADRIEN JAULMES IN LE FIGARO,
"THE SHIITES AND THE KURDS ARE TAKING THEIR REVENGE." IN
CATHOLIC LA CROIX, AGNES ROTIVEL GIVES A FACTUAL REPORT OF THE
SHIITES AND THE KURDS' "LONG ROAD TO POWER." ROTIVEL NOTES THE
SYMBOLISM OF THE DATE: "IT IS THE ANNIVERSARY DATE OF THE 1988
GASSING OF THE KURDS IN THE VILLAGE OF HALABJA."

IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO, POLITICAL EXPERT GERARD CHALIAND
SPEAKS OF "2005 AS A DECISIVE YEAR FOR IRAQ." CHALIAND GIVES
CREDIT TO THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION FOR CREATING A CERTAIN
"DYNAMIC" IN THE REGION, BUT CONCLUDES THAT "THE EFFECTS OF
THE BUSH POLICY ARE MORE OBVIOUS IN RUSSIA'S IMMEDIATE
PERIPHERY, THAN IN THE GREATER MIDDLE EAST." IN LEFT-OF-
CENTER LE MONDE, BRITISH FM JACK STRAW PENS AN OP-ED ON
BRINGING DEMOCRACY TO THE MIDDLE EAST BUT WARNS AGAINST
"IMPOSING A MODEL." (SEE PART C)

SECRETARY RICE'S TRIP TO ASIA IS REPORTED IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER

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LE FIGARO. FOR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT PHILIPPE GELIE "THIS
TRIP IS THE ASIAN EQUIVALENT OF HER TRIP TO EUROPE, WITH A
SIMILAR FOUNDING SPEECH TO BE DELIVERED IN JAPAN." (SEE PART
C)

PRIME MINISTER RAFFARIN'S VISIT TO ISRAEL IS ANALYZED IN LEFT-
OF-CENTER LIBERATION AS "GIVING A NEW DIRECTION TO FRANCE'S
POLICY IN THE MIDDLE EAST. THIS IS THE SOFT MUSIC WE HAVE BEEN
HEARING FROM THE QUAI D'ORSAY. FM BARNIER, WHO HAS THE
REPUTATION OF BEING MORE OF AN ATLANTICIST THAN HIS
PREDECESSOR, DE VILLEPIN, HAS MADE THIS ONE OF HIS GOALS. THE
FRENCH PRESIDENT HAS OPERATED A RAPPROCHEMENT WITH THE U.S. AT
SYRIA'S EXPENSE. THE INVITATION TO ATTEND THE INAUGURATION OF
THE NEW HOLOCAUST MUSEUM IN ISRAEL HAS GIVEN FRANCE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO ILLUSTRATE THIS NEW DIRECTION, BY SENDING NOT
ITS FOREIGN MINISTER, AS DID GREAT BRITAIN, GERMANY OR SPAIN,
BUT ITS PRIME MINISTER."

(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES:

IRAQ: FORMATION OF NEW GOVERNMENT

"2005, A DECISIVE YEAR FOR IRAQ"
GERARD CHALIAND IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (03/16): "NEVER
AGAIN WILL THE SUNNIS GOVERN IRAQ AS A HEGEMONY. WE MUST GIVE
CREDIT TO WASHINGTON FOR THIS, NO MATTER HOW WE FEEL ABOUT THE
WAR AND THE WAY IT WAS CONDUCTED. TODAY, IRAQ IS TRIPARTITE.
BUT IRAQ CANNOT BE GOVERNED WITHOUT THE SUNNIS. MILITARILY
SPEAKING, THE WAR IN IRAQ CANNOT BE WON BY THE AMERICANS. THIS
FALLS IN THE HANDS OF THE IRAQI ARMY. BUT WILL THIS ARMY, WITH
THE ADVANTAGE OF NOT BEING A FOREIGN ARMY, SUCCEED? TODAY'S
SUNNI INSURRECTION EXISTS PRIMARILY THANKS TO SYRIA'S HELP.
2005 IS A DECISIVE YEAR FOR IRAQ: IT WILL DETERMINE IRAQ'S
EQUILIBRIUM, OR ITS INSTABILITY. TO AVOID A CIVIL WAR IN IRAQ,
SUNNI REPRESENTATION MUST BE SUPPORTED. MUCH WILL ALSO DEPEND
ON IRAQ'S THREE NEIGHBORS: IRAN, SYRIA AND TURKEY. WASHINGTON
IS CONVINCED THAT ITS STRATEGY OF EXPANDING THE REALM OF
REGIONAL DYNAMICS BRINGS ABOUT RESULTS. IT IS INDISPUTABLE
THAT SUCH A STRATEGY HAS RESULTED IN POSITIVE EFFECTS IN
UKRAINE AND GEORGIA. BUT IN THE GREATER MIDDLE EAST, THE U.S.
IMAGE IS NOT AS POSITIVE AS IT IS IN THE FORMER COMMUNIST
WORLD. THE POLICY OF THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION (IN THE MIDDLE
EAST) MUST BE CREDITED WITH HAVING PROVOKED A CERTAIN DYNAMIC,
BUT THINGS ARE STILL HAPPENING. THE RESULTS ARE MORE OBVIOUS
IN THE RUSSIAN PERIPHERY THAN IN THE GREATER MIDDLE EAST WHERE
NOTHING DECISIVE HAS HAPPENED YET, EXCEPT FOR THE TOPPLING OF
IRAQ'S BAATH REGIME."

"WE MUST NOT IMPOSE A DEMOCRATIC MODEL"
BRITISH FM JACK STRAW IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LE MONDE (03/16):
"DEMOCRACY MUST BE IMPLEMENTED IN THE MIDDLE EAST'S BEST
INTEREST, BUT ALSO EUROPE'S. IT IS AN IMPERIOUS NECESSITY TO
SUPPORT THE REGION'S MODERNIZATION. BUT WE MUST BE HUMBLE.
DEMOCRACY TAKES TIME. LET US NOT TRY TO IMPOSE A MODEL AND LET
US LISTEN TO THE NEEDS AND ASPIRATIONS OF THE VARIOUS
GOVERNMENTS AND THEIR PEOPLE. LET US ABANDON THE ARROGANT AND
CONDESCENDING NOTION THAT ISLAM IS OPPOSED TO CHANGE. THIS IS
NOT THE CASE IN INDONESIA OR TURKEY. EUROPE HAS A TRUE
OPPORTUNITY TO JOIN THE U.S. IN SUPPORTING THE EXPANSION OF
FREEDOM AND DEMOCRACY. LET US DO THIS NOT AS TACITURN
PARTNERS, BUT BY BRINGING TO THE TABLE WHAT EUROPE KNOWS OF
THE MIDDLE EAST."

SECRETARY RICE TO ASIA

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"AFTER EUROPE, RICE TO CHARM ASIA"
PHILIPPE GELIE IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (03/16): "THE TRIP
RICE BEGAN YESTERDAY IS MEANT AS THE EQUIVALENT OF HER TRIP TO
EUROPE, WITH A SIMILAR POLICY SPEECH TO BE DELIVERED IN JAPAN.
SECRETARY RICE MAY ANNOUNCE THE SALE OF F-16 AIRCRAFT TO BOTH

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INDIA AND PAKISTAN, THUS IMPLICITLY ACKNOWLEDGING THEIR STATUS
AS NUCLEAR POWERS. MORE GENERALLY, THE TRIP GIVES WASHINGTON
AN OPPORTUNITY TO DEFINE ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH CHINA. WHOSE
RECENT LAW ON THE USE OF FORCE AGAINST TAIWAN RE-ENFORCES
AMERICA'S CONCERNS." LEACH