SARKOWATCH: NICOLAS SARKOZY REGAINS SEAT IN THE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 001680

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, DRL/IL AND INR/EUC
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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ELAB FR PGOV PINR PREL SOCI
SUBJECT: SARKOWATCH: NICOLAS SARKOZY REGAINS SEAT IN THE
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY



1. (SBU) SUMMARY: In a special by-election on March 13,
Nicolas Sarkozy regained his old seat in the National
Assembly representing the affluent town of Neuilly in the
suburbs west of Paris. Sarkozy won handily in the first
round garnering 71 percent of the vote. It was the most
comfortable margin of victory in Sarkozy's career. Sarkozy
will continue as president of the Union for a Popular
Movement (UMP) party and as president of the council of Hauts
de Seine department. Sarkozy will use his return to the
National Assembly to try and solidify support among UMP
legislators for his 2007 presidential bid. END SUMMARY.


EASY WIN IN SPECIAL BY-ELECTION
--------------

2. (U) In a special by-election on March 13, Nicolas Sarkozy
regained his old seat in the National Assembly representing
the affluent town of Neuilly in the suburbs west of Paris.
Sarkozy won handily in the first round garnering 71 percent
of the vote. He easily bested the Socialist Party candidate
who placed second with 12 percent. Facing a field of nine
largely unknown candidates, Sarkozy's victory was nearly a
foregone conclusion. It was the most comfortable margin of
victory in Sarkozy's long political career (he was first
elected to public office in 1983 as mayor of Neuilly). In
his victory remarks, Sarkozy focused on the mediocre
performance of the National Front (FN) candidate, Bruno
Ligonie, who won 5.6 percent of the vote. "This is the first
time that the FN received such a low score in this district,"
Sarkozy said. "The center-right, when it presents a coherent
message, knows how to win over voters who are stuck in a
dead-end."


VICTORY CONTINUES WELL-ESTABLISHED PATTERN
--------------

3. (U) In the most recent legislative elections (2002),
Sarkozy won this same constituency handily with 69 percent of
the vote. In that contest, none of his 16 adversaries
received more than 13 percent of the vote in the 6th district
of the affluent Hauts de Seine department which comprises the
western suburb towns of Neuilly and Puteaux. Sarkozy was
first elected to that Natonal Assembly seat in 1988. He has
kept that seat since that time -- giving it up only to serve
as a minister in the governments of Edouard Balladur from
1993-95 and of Jean-Pierre Raffarin from 2002-04. (NOTE:
French law requires that ministers resign from national
elective office in order to maintain the separation of powers
between the executive and legislative branches. Ministers and
legislators, however, can continue in local office. Sarkozy
has been president of the Hauts de Seine departmental council
since 2004. END NOTE.)

REACTION TO SARKO'S RETURN
--------------

4. (U) Following Sarkozy's victory, National Assembly
President -- and the de facto leader of the Chirac loyalists
in the National Assembly -- Jean-Louis Debre commented that
he awaited with "serenity" Sarkozy's return to the Assembly.
COMMENT: As president of the UMP party, Sarkozy had the right
to attend all meetings of the UMP groups in both the National
Assembly and the Senate. However, now as a member of the
Assembly, Sarkozy's activism will carry that much more weight
in Assembly UMP councils -- as will his arm-twisting of
colleagues who may be undecided about supporting him or
President Chirac. END COMMENT. In remarks to the press,
Bernard Accoyer, leader of the UMP group in the Assembly,
said that "The return of Nicolas Sarkozy will enrich our
debates and aid the government in its modernization program
which is indispensable to our country." For his part, PM
Raffarin noted in a radio interview that he did not believe
Sarkozy's return to the Assembly would result in "a crisis"
between Sarkozy and the government.

COMMENT
--------------

5. (SBU) In his victory remarks, Sarkozy focused on the poor
showing of his FN rival. Sarkozy insisted that a liberal (in
the French sense),center-right candidate can give hope to --
and win the votes of -- lower income voters who are
economically insecure and feel threatened by social change.
Both the UMP and PS consider that many of those who have
voted FN in the recent past have done so more from
frustration and fear than from deep-seated bigotry or fascist
predilections. In competing for these voters -- why they
should look to the future with hope -- UMP, center-right
"opportunity" will go head-to-head against PS, center-left
"solidarity". END COMMENT.
Leach