MEDIA REACTION REPORT - BUSH POLICY - IRAQ - LEBANON

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 001630

SIPDIS


DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY (FRANK); BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU;
AF/PA; EUR/WE (DEBORAH MENNUTI)/P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA
(BERBENA); INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE
HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR AND PASS USTR/PA
(ANN LUZZATO); USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA; ROME/PA;
BRUSSELS/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE.

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR FR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - BUSH POLICY - IRAQ - LEBANON
- SYRIA U.S. WITHDRAWAL FROM WORLD COURT JURISDICTION OVER
CAPITAL CASES
PARIS - FRIDAY, MARCH 11, 2005


(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT:


1. BUSH POLICY - IRAQ - LEBANON - SYRIA

2. U.S. WITHDRAWAL FROM WORLD COURT JURISDICTION OVER CAPITAL
CASES

B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE:

TWO MAJOR STORIES DOMINATE TODAY'S FRONT PAGES AND
COMMENTARIES: THE CONSEQUENCES OF YESTERDAY'S DAY OF SOCIAL
PROTEST AND TODAY'S COMMEMORATION OF THE FIRST ANNIVERSARY OF
THE MADRID TRAIN BOMBINGS. IN CONNECTION WITH THIS
ANNIVERSARY, TERRORISM EXPERTS ARE INTERVIEWED. IN POPULAR
RIGHT-OF-CENTER FRANCE SOIR, FRANCOIS HEISBOURG OF THE
FOUNDATION FOR STRATEGIC RESEARCH: "THERE IS YET INSUFFICIENT
COORDINATION IN TERMS OF THE EU'S POLICY TO FIGHT AGAINST
TERRORISM. THE U.S. SUFFERED A TERRIBLE BLOW WITH 9/11, AND
CANNOT BE FAULTED FOR ITS INTERVENTION IN AFGHANISTAN.
CONVERSELY, IRAQ HAS TURNED INTO A SUPERMARKET FOR JIHADDISTS,
REPLACING AFGHANISTAN. IN THIS REGARD, THE INVASION OF IRAQ
HAS AGGRAVATED THE JIHADDISTS' ROLE." IN POPULAR RIGHT-OF-
CENTER LE PARISIEN, CLAUDE MONIQUET OF THE BRUSSELS-BASED
EUROPEAN CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND SECURITY: "EVEN IF FRANCE
IS NOT IN IRAQ, ITS INVOLVEMENT IN AFGHANISTAN AND BOSNIA
MAKES IT A TARGET FOR TERRORISM, IN ADDITION TO OTHER REASONS,
SUCH AS THE LAW ON THE MUSLIM SCARF OR ITS POSITION ON
ALGERIA. THE DANGER COMES FROM NEW AND YOUNGER GENERATIONS OF
DISSATISFIED YOUTH. THEY HAVE A SCORE TO SETTLE WITH SOCIETY."

LE FIGARO COLUMNIST IVAN RIOUFOL CALLS PRESIDENT BUSH'S MIDDLE
EAST POLICY A "SUCCESS" AND CRITICIZES THE "OTHERWORLDNIESS"
OF FRANCE'S PREFERENCE FOR "SOFT POWER" COCKTAIL OF PACIFICM
AND MULTILATERALISATION. (SEE PART C)

IN CATHOLIC LA CROIX JEAN-CHRISTOPHE PLOQUIN ANALYSES THE
LEBANESE CRISIS AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE REGION. (SEE PART
C)

SEVERAL REPORTS ARE DEDICATED TO THE U.S. DECISION TO WITHDRAW
FROM THE OPTIONAL PROTOCOL TO THE VIENNA CONVENTION, WHICH
GIVES THE WORLD COURT SOME JURISDICTION OVER CAPITAL CASES ON
THE ISSUE OF FOREIGN NATIONALS' CONSULAR ACCESS. IN RIGHT-OF-
CENTER LE FIGARO, PHILIPPE GELIE READS INTO THE DECISION "A
SIGNAL TO THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY THAT SETS THE
LIMITATIONS TO WASHINGTON'S RETURN TO MULTILATERALISM." LE
MONDE'S REPORT EMPHASIZES HOW THIS STEP "DEPRIVES ADVERSARIES
TO THE DEATH PENALTY OF A MEANS TO THEIR END." (SEE PART C)
(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES:

BUSH POLICY - IRAQ - LEBANON - SYRIA

"BUSH'S SUCCESSES IN THE MIDDLE EAST"
IVAN RIOUFOL IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (03/11): "THE
ASSERTIONS MADE ABOUT IRAQ NEED TO BE REVISED. EVERY POLITICAL
COMMENTATOR PREDICTED A REVOLUTION OF THE ARAB STREET AND A
SHOCK BETWEEN CIVILIZATIONS. THESE CERTAINTIES MUST BE RE-
ASSESSED. FACTS DO NOT FIT WITH THESE PREDICTIONS. SOME STILL
SAY THAT THE ELECTIONS IN PALESTINE AND THE LIBERATION OF
LEBANON ARE MERE COINCIDENCES. FM BARNIER ACKNOWLEDGES ONLY
THE REVOLUTION IN UKRAINE AS A SOURCE OF INSPIRATION FOR THE
`CEDAR REVOLUTION.' IF ONE LOOKS AT RECENT EVENTS, WE MUST
NECESSARILY ACKNOWLEDGE THAT PRESIDENT BUSH HAS SCORED POINTS,
EVEN IF HE MADE MISTAKES. THE FIRST RESULTS (EMANATING FROM
THE WAR IN IRAQ) EMPHASIZE FRANCE'S PREFERENCE FOR `SOFT
POWER.' THE MIDDLE EAST'S ASPIRATIONS FOR CHANGE PROVE THAT
PARIS WAS WRONG TO FEAR A WAR BETWEEN CULTURES. WHAT WE MUST
FEAR IS BACKWARD ISLAMISM. THIS IS WHY WE MUST REFRAIN FROM
TOO MUCH EUPHORIA, IN LIGHT OF THE ARAB WORLD'S ASPIRATION FOR
DEMOCRACY. WE MUST REJOICE IN FRANCE AND GERMANY'S ALLIANCE
WITH THE U.S. IN ASKING SYRIA TO WITHDRAW `COMPLETELY' FROM
LEBANON. EVEN IF THE THREAT OF HARSH FUNDAMENTALIST REACTIONS
REMAINS."
"FROM LEBANON TO IRAN"
JEAN-CHRISTOPHE PLOQUIN IN CATHOLIC LA CROIX (03/11):
"LEBANON'S FATE DEPENDS TO A LARGE EXTENT ON HEZBOLLAH. THE
SUCCESS OF THE `CEDAR REVOLUTION' WILL DEPEND ON THE
OPPOSITION'S ABILITY TO CONVINCE HEZBOLLAH TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY NEUTRAL IN THE POWER STRUGGLE WITH SYRIA. WALID
JUMBLATT SAID IN BRUSSELS THAT THE LEBANESE `CANNOT GET
INVOLVED IN THE ADVENTURE OF DISARMING HEZBOLLAH.' FRANCE IS
ALSO CONVINCED OF THIS. IT IS NOW TRYING TO BRING AROUND THE
U.S. TO TONE DOWN ITS HOSTILITY TOWARDS A GROUP, WHICH IT HAS
BLACKLISTED AS A TERRORIST GROUP. ANY AGREEMENT WITH AND ABOUT
HEZBOLLAH WILL NECESSARILY INVOLVE IRAN. WITH IRAN IN THE
EQUATION, THE LEVEL OF NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE U.S. AND THE
EUROPEANS MOVES TO A HIGHER LEVEL, TO INCLUDE IRAN'S NUCLEAR
PROGRAM, THE END OF TERRORISM AGAINST ISRAEL, THE
STABILIZATION PROCESS IN IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN AND THE PRICE OF
OIL. NEGOTIATIONS WITH HEZBOLLAH CAN REDEFINE STRATEGIES IN
THE MIDDLE EAST. THIS IS WHY THE RETURN OF OMAR KARAME ON THE
POLITICAL SCENE IS ONLY A TEMPORARY INCIDENT. IT PROVES THAT
SYRIA HAS FEW TRUMP CARDS WHEN IT COMES TO LEBANON."

U.S. WITHDRAWAL FROM WORLD COURT JURISDICTION OVER CAPITAL
CASES

"WASHINGTON REJECTS FOREIGN INTERVENTION"
PHILIPPE GELIE IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (03/11): "IT IS
NOT AS BIG A DEAL AS THE WITHDRAWAL FROM THE KYOTO PROTOCOL,
BUT THE MESSAGE SENT TO THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY IS
SIMILAR. IT SETS THE LIMITATIONS FOR WASHINGTON'S RETURN TO
MULTILATERALISM. THE ISSUE IS A COMPLEX ONE AND BEGAN WITH
SECRETARY RICE'S LETTER TO KOFI ANNAN ON MONDAY. THE U.S. IS

SIPDIS
WITHDRAWING FROM A CONVENTION THE AMERICANS INITIATED IN 1963,
RATIFIED IN 1969, AND INAUGURATED WITH SUCCESS IN THE U.S.
HOSTAGE SITUATION WITH TEHERAN. THIS TIME IT REVOLVES AROUND
51 MEXICAN DEATH ROW CONVICTS WHO PROFIT FROM THIS PROTOCOL.
PRESIDENT BUSH HAS GRANTED THESE CONVICTS THE RIGHT TO A NEW
TRIAL, AS STIPULATED BY THE INTERNATIONAL COURT OF JUSTICE.
BUT IT IS ONLY THE VISIBLE PART OF THE ICEBERG. THE SECOND
PART OF THE U.S. STRATEGY IS TO `PROTECT THE U.S. FROM FUTURE
DECISIONS THAT MAY UPSET THE U.S. PENAL SYSTEM IN A WAY WE DID
NOT FORESEE WHEN WE SIGNED THE CONVENTION' AS DANA JORDAN
EXPLAINED. IN OTHER WORDS, AS THE WASHINGTON POST EXPLAINED:
`IF WE LOSE, WE STOP PLAYING.' THIS IS ONE MORE STEP IN THE
U.S. REJECTION OF FOREIGN INTERVENTION INTO ITS JUDICIAL
SYSTEM. PRESIDENT BUSH'S DECISION IS A SLAP IN THE FACE OF THE
INTERNATIONAL JUSTICE SYSTEM, BUT HAS DOMESTIC MOTIVATIONS. IN
A FEDERAL SYSTEM WHERE THE DEATH PENALTY IS LEFT TO FEDERAL
LEGISLATION, THE TEXAS PROSECUTOR HAS COMPLAINED ABOUT THE
PRESIDENT INTERVENING IN THE REVISION OF JOSE MEDELLIN'S
TRIAL, WHICH IS THE SOURCE OF THE INITIAL COMPLAINT TO THE
INTERNATIONAL COURT OF JUSTICE. SECRETARY RICE WAS TO RAISE
THIS IN MEXICO YESTERDAY."

"WASHINGTON WITHDRAWS FROM INTERNATIONAL JURISDICTION"
CECILE CHAMBRAUD IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LE MONDE (03/11): "THE U.S.
HAS TAKEN ONE MORE STEP TO PROTECT ITSELF FROM DECISIONS TAKEN
BY AN INTERNATIONAL JUDICIAL INSTITUTION. THE STORY GOES BACK
TO JANUARY 2003. THIS PAST FEBRUARY THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION
GRANTED 51 MEXICANS ON DEATH ROW THE RIGHT TO NEW TRIALS ON
THE BASIS THAT THEY DID NOT HAVE ACCESS TO THEIR CONSULAR
RIGHTS. IN 2001, THE U.S. HAD BEEN SUED BEFORE THE SAME COURTS
BY GERMANY OVER A GERMAN DETAINEE WHO HAS SINCE BEEN EXECUTED.
THE DEATH PENALTY HAS BEEN CAUSING TENSION BETWEEN MEXICO AND
THE U.S. IN AUGUST 2002, MEXICAN PRESIDENT VINCENTE FOX
CANCELLED A TRIP TO WASHINGTON OVER THE EXECUTION OF A 33-YEAR
OLD MEXICAN ACCUSED OF A CRIME HE COMMITTED WHEN HE WAS 19."
LEACH