FRENCH POLYNESIA: NEW PRESIDENT, UNCERTAIN FUTURE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 001613

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2015
TAGS: PGOV PNAT FR FP XV
SUBJECT: FRENCH POLYNESIA: NEW PRESIDENT, UNCERTAIN FUTURE

REF: 04 PARIS 7928

Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt, reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (SBU) Summary: Following relatively smooth by-elections
on February 13, the Polynesian National Assembly elected
pro-independence candidate Oscar Temaru president of French
Polynesia on March 3 by a vote of 29 to 26 (with two ballots
left blank). Temaru's election brings to a close more than
10 months of political wrangling on the pacific archipelago;
however, his slim parliamentary majority leaves open the
possibility for further instability. Temaru's election to
the post for the second time in less than a year has profound
impact on the future of French Polynesia. The ousting of
close Chirac ally (and UMP Senator) Gaston Flosse, who ruled
the islands for 19 of the previous 22 years, will likely be
portrayed by the opposition -- perhaps optimistically -- as a
blow to Chirac's leadership in Paris. End summary.

Infighting over Presidency of Islands' Assembly
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2. (C) The political turmoil in French Polynesia began with
the surprise upset of longtime president Gaston Flosse in
parliamentary elections held in May 2004. Oscar Temaru
became president of French Polynesia for the first time in
June, but several parliamentary defections led to his ouster
in an October no confidence vote and the re-election of
Flosse. While some of those who crossed the aisle to join
Gaston Flosse's coalition did so because of poor leadership
by Temaru's inexperienced government, Australian diplomats
tell us in confidence that there may be credence to the rumor
that one defector was bought off by Flosse. Competing
pro-Temaru and pro-Flosse protests broke out in the islands
in October and November as dueling motions were ruled upon by
the Paris-based Conseil d'Etat, the highest court for
administrative affairs (see reftel). Ultimately, the censure
vote was upheld, as was a prior motion to annul the elections
in the Windward Islands, which resulted in a ruling to hold
the February by-elections.

Feb. 13 Elections and Eventual Election of Temaru as President
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3. (U) The run up to the by-election saw heavy campaigning
by both Temaru and Flosse, as well as the emergence of a
third party led by former Flosse supporter Nicole Bouteau,
who pitched herself as the alternative to the corruption of
Flosse and the calls for independence from France favored by
many in Temaru's coalition. The February 13 elections
proceeded well, despite fears of unrest and large
demonstrations by both parties. The transparency of the
elections and high participation rate (estimated at 80
percent) left little opportunity for appeal of the results.
Of the 37 seats up for vote, Temaru's coalition took the
majority (24),followed by Flosse's party (10) and Bouteau's
centrists (3); however, when added to those Parliamentarians
already sitting, the result was a divisive 27-27-3 stalemate
in the 57-seat French Polynesia National Assembly. Flosse
backed down from his pre-election pledge to resign if he did
not outright win the by-elections, but was formally removed
in a censure vote. The defection of one member each from
both Flosse's and Bouteau's parties gave Temaru's coalition a
29-26 majority in the regional parliament, and Temaru was
officially elected president on March 3 over Gaston Tong
Sang, who represented Flosse's party. Bouteau and her
centrist ally Philip Schyle honored their pledge to support
neither faction and cast blank ballots.

Comment
--------------

4. (C) This second defeat within the last year would seem
to spell the end of the 73 year-old Flosse's political
career. However, there are those in the MFA and Overseas
Department that feel the Elysee has not done enough to urge
Flosse to move on in the best interest of those in the
islands and the mainland who wish to keep ties between
Papeete and Paris strong. With Temaru's slight majority in
parliament (including one member who has switched sides three
times in the last year) and relative lack of experience, some
have speculated that Chirac may be encouraging Flosse to
patiently await an eventual dissolution of the current
government. Temaru was surprised by his victory last year
and clearly unprepared at that time to govern; his ability to
learn from previous mistakes and include centrists in his
government may determine whether or not he will be able to
avoid this outcome. To his credit, Temaru did not play the
divisive independence card in campaigning and has tempered
his rhetoric since the election, insisting "independence is
not on the agenda." Many believe that the Socialists, eager
to exploit any chink in Chirac's armor with the French
presidential elections two years away, will lend support to
Temaru. Perhaps also seeking to capitalize on Chirac's
perceived loss, UMP President Nicolas Sarkozy notably did not
travel to Papeete for the election to back Flosse, a senator
in the party he leads. End comment.
Leach