(C) MFA OFFICIAL RETHINKS PUTIN'S ABILITIES, URGES

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 001573

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV FR YI RU
SUBJECT: (C) MFA OFFICIAL RETHINKS PUTIN'S ABILITIES, URGES
DISCRETION ON OPTIONS FOR KOSOVO

REF: A. PARIS 1527


B. PARIS 1528

C. 2/22 KUJAWINSKI-ALLEGRONE E-MAIL

Classified By: POLITICAL MINISTER-COUNSELOR JOSIAH ROSENBLATT, FOR REAS
ONS 1.4 B/D


1. (C) Summary and comment: Jean-Francois Terral,
A/S-equivalent for Russia, the former Soviet space, and the
Balkans, discussed a full range of related issues March 8
with POL M/C, with a particular focus on Russia and Kosovo.
On Russia, Terral appeared more positive than expected on
relations with the EU, and more negative than expected on
President Putin and domestic Russian issues. Regarding
Kosovo, he urged that Contact Group members state publicly
that all options except a return to the past are on the
table, in order to ensure Serb participation. He emphasized,
though, that this was a question of tactics, and that France
fully understood the direction the Quint was taking on
Kosovo. Discussions on the ICTY indictment of Ramush
Haradinaj and the March 18 France-Germany-Russia-Spain
meeting are reported at reftels A and B, respectively. End
summary and comment.

FRENCH ANALYSIS OF RUSSIA


2. (C) Terral began discussion of Russia by stating that
French and American analyses of Russia are not very
different, notwithstanding disagreements on nuances. The
Russian transition to democracy was a very long process, he
said, and Russia was starting from very far back.
Furthermore, the Russian people were more interested in
personal security and their country's influence than
democratization. Russians believe their country is in a
position of weakness internationally, an opinion that has
only deepened following the events in Beslan and Ukraine.
France's Russia specialists discuss Russia regularly with
counterparts in Germany and the UK, said Terral, and would
like to engage in similar conversations with the U.S. Terral
said he raised the idea of a U.S.-France conference on Russia
in May with the MFA's Policy Planning-equivalent, and he
hoped that such exchanges might occur regularly.


3. (C) Turning to domestic events in Russia, Terral said
France was concerned that Putin was becoming increasingly
authoritarian and paradoxically, that his power was at the
same time weak and ineffective. Initially, France had not
been overly uncomfortable with the Yukos affair, said Terral,
because the French are sympathetic to the idea that the state
should exercise control over its natural resources. As an
aside, though, Terral said the latest moves by the Russian
government to dismantle Yukos were becoming less
comprehensible, and smacked of "irrationality." Terral said
that France, with its history of strong central control over
its regions, also understood Putin's decision to appoint
regional governors instead of submitting them to elections.
Despite this tendency to "understand" recent Russian actions,
French policymakers have become "a bit hesitant" regarding
their analyses since Putin's handling of Beslan and the
Ukraine election, said Terral. With regard to Ukraine, the
Russians "acted like imbeciles." In the Caucasus, Russia is
"behaving very badly." Although the French, said Terral, do
not see an alternative to Putin, they have begun to wonder
whether Putin is capable of managing his responsibilities.
(Comment: The clear sense given by Terral that the French
establishment was shocked by Putin's recent missteps and is
rethinking their confidence in his abilities was echoed March
9, when Poloff attended a conference on Russia sponsored by a
prominent think tank with very close ties to the GOF. The
packed hall, filled with generals, prefects and other
government elites, asked the same types of questions that
Terral raised, specifically mentioning Russian blundering in
Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. End comment)


4. (C) Despite concerns that Putin and his government were
beginning to act irrationally, Terral said he was "not
fundamentally pessimistic" regarding Russia-EU relations.
The French were pleased that the Russians had accepted the
right of the EU to discuss common concerns involving states
that border Russia and the EU. On Chechnya, the French
believed that Russia was moving in the right direction with
the acknowledgment that the conflict there was not purely a
security issue. Most important for Russia-EU relations, said
Terral, was conclusion of negotiations on the "four spaces"
of cooperation before the May 10 Russia-EU summit. The
"education/culture" space was completed, the "economic" space
was nearly completed, the "justice/interior" space still had
significant problems, and the most problematic remained the
"external security" space, said Terral.


5. (C) POL M/C asked Terral for President Chirac's analysis
of Russia, especially following the dinner between Presidents
Bush and Chirac, where Chirac advanced a number of differing
points regarding Russia and Ukraine. Terral said it was no
secret that Chirac cultivated a very close relationship with

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Putin and was especially focused on Russia as the
overwhelming influence in the former Soviet space.
Furthermore, said Terral, Chirac does not follow issues in
the region on a day-to-day basis, and he perhaps saw certain
aspects of Ukraine's evolution that would prove problematic
for Russia. Terral added that Chirac does not inform the MFA
of his thinking on Russia. (Comment: As discussed reftel C,
Chirac tends to see events in the former Soviet space through
a Russia-centric lens, as Terral implied. The French
president's overarching goal remains the cultivation of close
relations with Russia, and more specifically, with Putin.
This focus tends to blur Chirac's vision when looking at any
other countries in the former Soviet space. Prominent French
researcher on Russia and the former Soviet space Anne de
Tinguy made a similar point during the March 9 conference,
saying that historically, France focuses on Russia, and the
"absence" of a French policy on Ukraine, for example, has
been a great loss, especially in view of recent events. End
comment.)

TERRAL URGES PUBLIC DISCRETION ON OPTIONS FOR KOSOVO

6. (S) Terral began discussion of Kosovo by noting that, in
the Quint, the UK, the U.S. and Germany appear to have
accelerated their thinking regarding final status options.
He said France firmly believed in "standards before status"
and well understood that discussion was moving towards
"conditional independence" for Kosovo. France is not
standing in the way of that outcome. Nevertheless, he
cautioned that, politically and symbolically, it was of vital
importance to state publicly that all options regarding
Kosovo's future are on the table, save only a return to the
past. Given Serbia's historic role as the "pillar" of the
region, and its particular role regarding Kosovo, the
international community "must get the Serbs to the table,"
Terral said. The Serbs feel "beaten" and this, coupled with
their historical grievances, make their inclusion all the
more important. Dangling EU membership to reward Serb
behavior was not a "magic potion," said Terral. Many Serbs
are more focused on the past than on the future, given that
the international community could not overly pressure the
Serbs and expect success in Kosovo.


7. (C) Regarding next steps, Terral said he understood USG
reluctance to seize the UN Security Council on Kosovo, but
that such a move was necessary to "keep the Russians with
us." If Russia didn't work with the Contact Group, said
Terral, it would work against it. When asked for Chirac's
opinion on Kosovo, Terral reiterated what he had said before;
namely, that Chirac often did not make his opinions known to
the MFA. However, the MFA had received signs from the
Presidency to go slow on final status discussions, and to
make sure that all options remained on the table. That being
said, Terral said Chirac had not focused on Kosovo. However,
Terral noted that Kosovo was moving to the front burner of
intra-EU and French inter-agency discussions.
Leach