MEDIA REACTION REPORT - ELECTIONS IN PALESTINE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 000152

SIPDIS


DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY (FRANK); BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU;
AF/PA; EUR/WE (DEBORAH MENNUTI)/P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA
(BERBENA); INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE
HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR AND PASS USTR/PA
(ANN LUZZATO); USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA; ROME/PA;
BRUSSELS/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE.

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR FR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - ELECTIONS IN PALESTINE
IRAQ - VIOLENCE BEFORE ELECTIONS
PARIS - MONDAY, JANUARY 10, 2005


(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT:


1. ELECTIONS IN PALESTINE

2. IRAQ - VIOLENCE BEFORE ELECTIONS

B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE:

TWO MAJOR STORIES DOMINATE TODAY'S FRONT PAGES AND
COMMENTARIES: THE PROJECTED VICTORY BY MAHMOUD ABBAS IN
PALESTINE AND WHAT THIS MAY MEAN FOR THE MIDDLE EAST PEACE
PROCESS, AND THE SITUATION IN IRAQ, WEEKS BEFORE THE
ELECTIONS, WHICH ACCORDING TO CATHOLIC LA CROIX, COULD BE
COMPROMISED BY VIOLENCE.

IN THE MIDDLE EAST THE OUTCOME OF THE ELECTIONS IS WIDELY
CONSIDERED AS A "SIGNAL OF HOPE" (LIBERATION AND LE PARISIEN)
AND A "VOTE FOR PEACE" (LE FIGARO). COMMENTATORS AGREE THAT
"THE ELECTION IN PALESTINE, ALONG WITH PRESIDENT BUSH'S RE-
ELECTION AND THE NEW SHARON-PEREZ GOVERNMENT GIVE A NEW
PERSPECTIVE TO PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST." (SEE PART C)

FM BARNIER IS INTERVIEWED IN POPULAR RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE
PARISIEN (AND ALSO IN ENGLISH LANGUAGE THE INTERNATIONAL
HERALD TRIBUNE): "THIS IS A VICTORY FOR DEMOCRACY, AND A FIRST
VICTORY FOR PEACE. IN ISRAEL, SHARON IS AT A HISTORIC
CROSSROADS, AND I BELIEVE HE WILL BE UP TO THE TASK. WE ARE IN
A NEW CONTEXT, WITH A LEGITIMATE PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY, A MUCH
MORE OPEN ISRAELI GOVERNMENT WHICH IS COMMITTED TO WITHDRAWING
FROM GAZA, A U.S. PRESIDENT NEWLY ELECTED AND EUROPEANS WHO
STAND UNITED AND ARE AVAILABLE. WE WANT A NEW TRANSATLANTIC
PARTNERSHIP: THE TEST WILL LIE IN OUR COLLECTIVE ABILITY TO
GET THE PEACE PROCESS IN THE MIDDLE EAST BACK ON TRACK."

RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO CARRIES AN OP-ED BY ISRAELI
AMBASSADOR NISSIM ZVILI ON THE "DIFFICULT RELATIONS BETWEEN
FRANCE AND ISRAEL. AT LEAST WE HAVE EACH ACKNOWLEDGED THAT
THERE IS A DEEP BREAK BETWEEN THE TWO SOCIETIES. UNFORTUNATELY
WE CONTINUE TO HAVE A DEAF-MUTE DIALOGUE. WE LISTEN TO EACH
OTHER POLITELY, BUT EACH STICKS TO HIS GUNS. AFTER THE
EUPHORIA OF THE OSLO ACCORDS, WE ARE MODERATE IN OUR
ENTHUSIASM, IN ORDER TO GIVE THE NEGOTIATIONS THEIR BEST
CHANCE FOR SUCCESS."

THE SECOND MAJOR STORY, IRAQ AND THE GROWING DAILY VIOLENCE,
LEADS MANY COMMENTATORS TO DOUBT WHETHER THE ELECTIONS WILL BE
ABLE TO BE CONDUCTED FAIRLY. CATHOLIC LA CROIX HEADLINES
"IRAQI ELECTIONS UNDERMINED BY VIOLENCE" AND INTERVIEWS PIERRE-
JEAN LUIZARD, A RESEARCHER AT THE CNRS (THE NATIONAL CENTER
FOR SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH) WHO SAYS: "NO ARMY WILL BE ABLE TO
LESSEN THE INSECURITY. IRAQ HAS BECOME A BATTLEGROUND FOR A
CONFLICT BETWEEN THE U.S. AND A FUNDAMENTALIST MOVEMENT, WHICH
SEEMS TO HAVE A HOLD ON IRAQ'S SUNNI COMMUNITY AND COULD
SPREAD. THE ATTACKS IN IRAQ HAVE WORSENED IN THE PAST THREE
MONTHS AND KILLED A NUMBER OF FIGURES WHO MIGHT HAVE PLAYED A
ROLE IN MANAGING THE COUNTRY. I REMAIN PESSIMISTIC ABOUT
IRAQ."

LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION CARRIES AN OP-ED BY FRANCOIS GERE OF
THE FRENCH INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC ANALYSIS ON THE SUICIDE
ATTACKS WHICH HAVE BEEN PLAGUING BAGHDAD. (SEE PART C)
COMMENTATORS, WRITING ON THE DISAPPEARANCE OF LIBERATION'S
JOURNALIST, NOTE BAGHDAD'S GROWING INSECURITY PRIOR TO THE
ELECTIONS.

(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES:

ELECTIONS IN PALESTINE

"A UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY FOR THE PEACE PROCESS"
LUC DE BAROCHEZ IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (01/10): "THE
MIDDLE EAST HAS ENTERED INTO AN ERA OF HOPE. PRESIDENT BUSH,
WHO DOES NOT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT RE-ELECTION, HAS A FREE HAND
TO GET MORE INVOLVED IN THE MIDDLE EAST. FRENCH FM BARNIER HAS
INDICATED THAT `THE NEW RELATIONSHIP' BETWEEN THE AMERICANS
AND THE EUROPEANS, AS ILLUSTRATED BY CHIRAC'S VISIT TO
WASHINGTON IN THE NEAR FUTURE AND BUSH'S VISIT TO BRUSSELS ON
FEBRUARY 22, COULD SERVE AS A `LEVER' TO GET THE PEACE PROCESS
BACK ON TRACK. BUT THE ELECTION OF ABBAS MUST NOT RAISE
INCONSIDERATE HOPES: HE IS AFTER ALL ARAFAT'S HEIR AND NOT
VERY POPULAR IN THE OCCUPIED TERRITORIES. IF THE AMERICANS AND
THE EUROPEANS DO NOT COMMIT THEMSELVES FURTHER, THE
DISAPPOINTMENT WILL BE ON PAR WITH THE HOPES BORN OF THE
ELECTION."

"A WINDOW"
GERARD DUPUY IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION (01/10): "WESTERN
NATIONS MUST HEAR THE MESSAGE SENT BY THE PALESTINIANS AND
ACCEPT THEIR SKEPTICISM, EXPRESSED TO THEM AS WELL AS TO
MAHMOUD ABBAS. HE WAS ELECTED WITHOUT ANY REAL OPPOSITION, BUT
WITH THE FIRM DEMAND THAT HE GET RESULTS. THIS MEANS THAT IF
HE IS SLOW TO ACHIEVE THEM, HE WILL BE HELD RESPONSIBLE. THE
OFFER FOR A CONFERENCE ON THE MIDDLE EAST IN LONDON PROVES
THAT TONY BLAIR IS AWARE OF THE URGENCY OF GRASPING THE
OPPORTUNITY AT HAND, EVEN IF THE CONFERENCE IS NOT THE ANSWER.
AN UNEXPECTED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY HAS OPENED IN THE MIDDLE
EASTERN IMPASSE. THE COUNTDOWN IS ALREADY ON, BEFORE THAT
WINDOW CLOSES OVER THE COMPROMISE WHICH ABBAS HAS LINKED TO
HIS ELECTION."

"PEACE IS AGAIN POSSIBLE"
PIERRE ROUSSELIN IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (01/10): "NOW
THAT PALESTINE HAS ELECTED A PRESIDENT WHO IS NOT ARAFAT,
PEACE WITH ISRAEL IS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE. AT THIS STAGE WE ARE
SPEAKING OF A FRAGILE HOPE, BUT A HOPE NEVERTHELESS. IT IS
FOUNDED ON THE FACT THAT ISRAEL AND THE U.S. ARE READY TO DEAL
WITH ABBAS. WHOSE TASK IS IMMENSE: NAMELY HE MUST SUCCEED
WHERE ARAFAT FAILED. THE ELECTION OF ABBAS WILL HAVE BEEN THE
EASIEST PART. NOW THAT HE HAS BEEN ELECTED, ABBAS'S FATE IS
VERY MUCH IN THE HANDS OF SHARON: HE CAN MAKE HIS WORK EASIER,
OR ON THE CONTRARY MORE DIFFICULT. IN THE MEANTIME, THE U.S.
AND EUROPE MUST GRASP THIS UNPRECEDENTED OPPORTUNITY. WE MUST
SALUTE THIS SHOW OF PALESTINIAN DEMOCRACY AND HELP THE NEWLY-
ELECTED PRESIDENT. AS WELL AS CONVINCE SHARON NOT TO OPPOSE
HIM."

"SHARON'S ATTITUDE WILL BE DECISIVE"
THOMAS DE ROCHECHOUART IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER FRANCE SOIR (01/10):
"HIS LACK OF A RIVAL HAS GIVEN ABBAS A CERTAIN MARGIN OF
MANEUVER TO VOICE UNPOPULAR IDEAS SUCH AS ENDING THE ARMED
INTIFADA. HIS SUCCESS WILL DEPEND ON ISRAEL'S DESIRE TO
COLLABORATE WITH HIM. CAUGHT BETWEEN SHARON AND THE ARMED
REBELLION, ABBAS WILL BE PLAYING A DIFFICULT GAME. HE WILL
NEED TO BE CONVINCING, OR HIS POSITION AS A MODERATE WILL SOON
BECOME IMPOSSIBLE."

IRAQ - VIOLENCE BEFORE ELECTIONS

"IRAQ AND THE POLICY OF SUICIDE ATTACKS"
FRANCOIS GERE IN LEFT OF CENTER LIBERATION (01/10): "SINCE
ALLAWI'S ELECTION, AN INSURRECTION IS RAVAGING TWO THIRDS OF
IRAQ. THOSE IN POWER ARE MINIMIZING THE ATTACKS. IN THE PAST
FEW MONTHS, IRAQ HAS BECOME THE THEATRE OF A VERY WORRISOME
FORM OF ATTACK: SUICIDE-BOMBINGS. THE AIM OF THE ATTACKS
AGAINST THE AMERICANS IS THREEFOLD: TO EMBARRASS THEM
POLITICALLY, TO HIT THEM WHERE THEIR BIG WAR MACHINE IS MOST
VULNERABLE AND TO ERODE THEIR MORAL. WHO ARE THE ATTACKERS?
NOT A BUNCH OF DISPIRITED INDIVIDUALS, AS THE AUTHORITIES SAY.
THE ATTACKERS COME FROM THREE SEPARATE GROUPS, THE SUNNI ANSAR
AL-ISLAM, . A RADICAL GROUP OF FORMER SADDAM HUSSEIN
SUPPORTERS AND A VAST GROUP COMPRISED OF FOREIGNERS. THEY HAVE
A COMMON OBJECTIVE: THE AMERICANS, WHICH MAY NOT BE THE ONLY
ONE. BUT THESE THREE GROUPS, FORTUNATELY, LACK COORDINATION.
HEREIN LIES THEIR WEAKNESS. IRAQ IS LIKE A `FAILED STATE'
WHERE DIFFERENT AND UNCONTROLLABLE FACTIONS ARE AT WAR. THE
MORE INTELLIGENT ONES ARE TRYING TO MANIPULATE THE AMERICAN
MILITARY FORCES, WHO ARE LIKE SO MANY ELEPHANTS IN A CHINA
SHOP. THESE GROUPS, IRAQ'S NEW POLITICAL FORCE, ARE NOW ABLE
TO TRAIN HUNDREDS OF VOLUNTEERS FOR SUICIDE ATTACKS WHICH
REPRESENT A MAJOR DANGER FOR THE FUTURE. THEY WILL BE ABLE TO
DISSEMINATE IN THE ARAB PENINSULA, AND CAUSE MORE
DESTABILIZATION. NOTHING PROVES THAT THE DANGER WILL REMAIN
CONFINED TO THAT REGION. IF WE IN EUROPE TEND TO NEGLECT THE
EXISTENCE OF THESE SUICIDE ATTACKERS, THEY ON THE OTHER HAND
HAVE NOT FORGOTTEN WE EXIST." LEACH