FRENCH HOSTAGE VIDEO RAISES SPECULATION ON A

C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 001401

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/2014
TAGS: PREL IZ FR SY LE
SUBJECT: FRENCH HOSTAGE VIDEO RAISES SPECULATION ON A
SYRIAN CONNECTION

REF: A. 04 STATE 9098

B. 04 STATE 7316

Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt, reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (SBU) The March 1 release of a videotape showing missing
French journalist Florence Aubenas pleading for assistance
from a pro-Syrian French MP has plunged the GoF into its
second Iraq hostage crisis in recent months and sparked
widespread French press speculation of a Syria hand in
Aubenas' kidnapping, in retaliation for French pressure for
Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon. The MP in question, Didier
Julia, is reputed to sympathize with the SARG and the former
Iraqi regime and is notorious for his failed, apparently
fraudulent effort to secure the release of former Iraq
hostages Christian Chesnot and Georges Malbrunot (ref b) in
October 2004. Julia and two associates face an ongoing GoF
judicial investigation "for involvement with a foreign power"
in pursuing their earlier hostage release scheme, which was
carried out from Damascus and coincided with the same period
in which the U.S. and France pursued adoption of UNSCR 1559.
Aubenas' employer, the French daily "Liberation," speculated
March 3 that her kidnapping had originally been a criminal
act, but was "politically hijacked" to pressure President
Chirac for his insistence on Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon.
Meanwhile, UMP Deputy and former GoF anti-terrorism judge
Alain Marsaud told reporters of his personal conclusion that
the Aubenas affair represented an "enormous manipulation" on
Syria's part, and that a Syrian connection to the
hostage-takers would not be surprising.


2. (SBU) Since Aubenas' disappearance in Baghdad January 5,
the GoF had been handling her case in a discreet manner, in
sharp contrast to the high-level French diplomatic and media
mobilization which followed the hostage-taking of journalists
Chesnot and Malbrunot in August 2004 (ref a). The new
linkage to Julia has put the GoF on the defensive with few
other leads to pursue, as press reports suggest the GoF has
not received any communication or demands from the
hostage-takers. Complicating matters further, MP Julia has
declared his readiness to help secure Aubenas' release if the
GoF gives him "liberty of action," while adding that he
"probably knew the hostage-takers," and that they likely
appreciated his views. French PM Rafarrin, speaking before
the National Assembly March 2, called upon Didier to share
all relevant information on the Aubenas case with the French
DGSE (CIA-equivalent) and ruled out "parallel diplomacy" on
anyone else's part. Rafarrin also confirmed that the March 1
video was the second tape of Aubenas which the GoF had
received, said the GoF had been unable to determine the time
of creation of either tape, or whether images had been
fabricated. Rafarrin's public appeal for Didier's
cooperation has generated some criticism among the French
Socialist opposition, who assailed the French PM for allowing
the wayward MP to derail GoF efforts.


3. (C) Comment: There is no proof of a Syrian connection to
the Aubenas case, though the Didier Julia angle, lack of
information on the kidnappers, and timing of the video
release all raise serious questions. French officials have
been tight-lipped on the Aubenas case, referring us to FM
Barnier and PM Rafarrin's public statements and claiming
ignorance on further details, particularly the Syria
connection. At the same time, we find the same MFA officials
are being more open than before in describing Syria's
destabilizing role in Iraq; the MFA DAS-equivalent for
Iraq/Iran told us March 2 that he had underestimated the
degree of cooperation between Syrian and Iraqi intelligence
and the extent of cross-border tribal connections prior to
the fall of Saddam's regime, and assessed that Syria was
involved in most of the insurgent activity taking place in
the western al-Anbar province, "from the border to Ramadi."
While the Aubenas case means a new headache for the GoF, we
do not see signs that it is having an effect on the GoF's
insistence on a full, immediate Syrian pull-out from Lebanon
or slowing GoF engagement in Iraq, in the way that French
relations with the IIG were strained by the four-month
Chesnot/Malbrunot hostage saga. On the contrary, the Aubenas
case appears to be further hardening French attitudes towards
Syria, amid widespread public sympathy and support for the
"Cedar Revolution." End comment.


4. (U) Baghdad minimize considered.
Leach