FRENCH FORMER PRESIDENT GISCARD D'ESTAING ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 001055

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/16/2015
TAGS: PREL FR TU IZ SY UK EUN LB PINT
SUBJECT: FRENCH FORMER PRESIDENT GISCARD D'ESTAING ON
TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONS, EU, AND FRENCH POLITICAL SCENE


Classified By: Josiah Rosenblatt, PolMinCouns, Reasons 1 (b) and (d)

SUMMARY
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1. (C) Former French President Giscard d'Estaing, over
lunch February 16, told Ambassador Leach that he had been
impressed by Secretary Rice on her recent visit to Paris. He
thought that following the Iraqi elections and the
constitution of an Iraqi government, France would be more
open to assisting Iraq, short of sending troops. Giscard,
who presided over the Convention which drew up Europe's
constitutional treaty, called for greater public support from
the U.S. for a strengthened EU. He did not think it would be
possible to amend the constitution for quite some time, but
eventually it would be necessary to introduce more direct
public participation in electing the EU's leadership.
Giscard made his familiar case against Turkish entry into the
EU, and regretted U.S. support for Turkey's candidacy.
Giscard thought the French referendum on the constitution
would pass, predicting support around 53%. However,
intervening events could affect the outcome. Distinguishing
his approach from that of President Chirac, who has advocated
"multipolarity," Giscard argued that the U.S. should welcome
a strong Western partner in dealing with emergent China and
India. Giscard foresees both Chirac and Nicholas Sarkozy
running for President. With many scores to settle with
Chirac, Giscard noted the difficulties his old rival faces,
but he clearly does not count him out. End Summary.

Secretary's and President's Visits, U.S. Support for the EU

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2. (C) Giscard, who was a first-row attendee at the
Secretary's speech at Sciences-Po, said he thought her visit

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had gone well. She had conveyed effectively the
Administration's desire to work cooperatively with Europe.
She had projected well, coming across as someone who is
thoughtful, intelligent, and fully in control of her brief
("she clearly wasn't just reading a text"). Giscard also
noted that the new Administration's foreign policy team is
well regarded in Europe. The Secretary's visit came on the
heels of the Iraqi elections -- "a good first step" -- which
had strengthened her hand. Giscard said he believed France
would now show greater openness on Iraq. While military
involvement will remain taboo, France should be able to
engage in other ways, such as training. The next phase opens
when the newly constituted Iraqi government requests support
from Paris. The GoF should be able to respond affirmatively.


3. (C) Segueing from Iraq to the EU, Giscard commented that
the schism that had opened in the EU over Iraq was in the
process of healing. The U.S. should value EU unity as well
as the strengthening of the EU, represented by the
constitutional treaty. Assured by Ambassador Leach that the
U.S. is supportive, Giscard called for an expression of
support by President Bush, possibly in connection to his
visit to the continent next week. Ambassador Leach reminded
Giscard of the several recent occasions when the President
and the Secretary had called for strengthened ties with our
European partners, and of the outreach the President's and
the Secretary's visits to Europe represent. Giscard spoke of
the need for a core EU group, consisting of France, Germany,
and the UK, along with Italy and Spain, that the U.S. should
be prepared to work with. Giscard surmised that Tony Blair
intends to "implicate the UK" to a greater extent in the EU
once his own elections are behind him. The U.S. should
welcome this, as it should support a strong EU. It is not
healthy, after all, for the U.S. to be the only strong
Western country. A rising China and a rising India will not
be all that easy to handle for the U.S. alone; it should have
a strong western partner. Giscard took the Ambassador's
point that Chirac's approach seems to be not only to identify
other "poles," but to strengthen them, whereas the U.S. and
Europe, sharing the same values, need to work together to
achieve common objectives.

The EU Constitution, Turkey
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4. (C) Addressing the EU constitution, Giscard commented
that its implementation will give the EU greater visibility
on the international scene. That said, the debates on the
constitution in Europe are national debates. Only between
France and Germany is thought being given to the creation of
a "unitary society." Responding to the Ambassador, Giscard
stated that once adopted, the Constitution would remain
unchanged for quite some time. It represents the maximum
that could be agreed. One problem that will need to be
handled is the financing of the system. Without a tax or a
revenue base, the EU will not have the means to implement its
policies. The system, he continued, is currently blocked.
The UK will not give up its rebate until after its elections,
while the Germans, Dutch and Danes will not agree to continue
to finance the rebate. The EU will eventually also have to
address how to amend the constitution. A way needs to be
found to increase the number of areas in which issues can be
decided by qualified-majority voting, but the UK and probably
others cannot yet countenance this. Giscard, predictably,
regretted U.S. public backing for Turkish entry into the EU.
He laid out his well-known objections. Just as its members
are giving the EU greater powers, with decision-making based
partially on demography, Europeans are being asked to
contemplate turning over a significant say in their own
affairs to an Asian and Muslim country. We should not forget
what happened to Iran, which under the Shah was another
modernizing Muslim country. Turkey for its part, is being
set up for a fall. The Turks envision EU membership largely
as financial transfers and an open labor market; they will be
satisfied on neither score. The UK supports Turkish
membership because it is convinced the effort will fail. A
better alternative would be to define a European Economic
Space within which the EU would contribute to Turkey's
economic development. Its content would be negotiated
between the EU and Turkey.


5. (C) Giscard agreed with the Ambassador that the EU
election process keeps it at a remove from the public. The
Constitution represents what the traffic could bear at this
time, but admittedly doesn't go far enough in this respect.
The next step, whenever it comes, should be election of the
EU executive by a college of European Parliament deputies
plus, in equal number, members of national parliaments,
amounting to some 2,000-3,000 persons. While a direct
election would provide even greater legitimacy, that is a
remote prospect, perhaps 30 years in the future. (Is Europe
ready for a German leader, asked Giscard. German is the most
widely spoken first language in Europe; any candidate with
hopes of winning would have to speak it.) Giscard also noted
that Ukraine, more "European" than Turkey, has suddenly
appeared as a prospective candidate, just at the moment when
sentiment has turned against enlargement. Giscard commented
that while enlargement had probably proceeded too quickly,
this was due to circumstances over which the EU had no
control -- the breaking apart of the Soviet bloc. That said,
Europe could have integrated its members in stages, beginning
with Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic.

French Referendum, 2007 Presidential Elections
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6. (C) Giscard said he thought the referendum on the
constitution (likely to be held in late May) would pass, with
support in the range of 53 percent. Intervening events,
unpredictable at this time, could shift the political
landscape. Key questions remain: Will the participation
rate be sufficient to make for a convincing victory? Will
the French electorate be tempted to use the referendum as a
means to register discontent with the government or
opposition to EU enlargement? Giscard thought Blair's
rationale for placing Britain at the end of the referendum
queue was to raise the stakes for the British electorate --
confronting it with the choice between approving the
constitution or leaving Europe.


7. (C) Interestingly, Giscard brought up the French
presidential election, saying he thought both Chirac and
Sarkozy would run. Chirac would be handicapped by a general
sentiment that Presidents should be limited to two terms, and
that it may be time for a generational change. Sarkozy would
seek to amass overwhelming support, in the range of 75
percent, in the majority party, the UMP, which he heads. The
Socialists, he agreed, have no obvious leader, nor does it
have a clear policy. It will be faced with its usual dilemma
of how to appease the extreme left while remaining an option
for centrist voters.

Leach