SOCIALIST PARTY KICKS OFF CAMPAIGN TO VOTE "YES"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 001014

SIPDIS

DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, DRL/IL AND INR/EUC
DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB
DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/16/2010
TAGS: ELAB FR PGOV PINR PREL SOCI
SUBJECT: SOCIALIST PARTY KICKS OFF CAMPAIGN TO VOTE "YES"
ON PROPOSED EU CONSTITUTION


Classified By: Minister Counselor for Political Affairs Josiah Rosenbla
tt for reasons 1.4 b and d.


1. (U) Summary: France's Socialist Party (PS) kicked off
ahead of schedule a campaign intended to promote a "yes" vote
among left-leaning voters in the referendum on the proposed
EU Constitution tentatively scheduled for next June. Among
the slogans chosen for this campaign is "Yes to a stronger
Europe able to stand up to the Unites States." Recent polls
show that a clear majority of likely voters continues to
favor the proposed constitution but by a narrowing margin.
Worries that low overall voter turn-out for the referendum,
coupled with high turn-out of "no" voters, could result in
rejection of the proposed constitution has infused urgency
into the "yes" camp's plans to educate and energize its voter
base. END SUMMARY.


FRANCOIS HOLLANDE KICKS OFF "YES" CAMPAIGN AHEAD OF SCHEDULE
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2. (U) On February 14, Socialist party national secretary
Francois Hollande kicked off ahead of schedule the PS's
campaign aimed at convincing left-leaning voters to vote
"yes" in the upcoming referendum on the proposed EU
Constitution. The decision to accelerate the start of the
campaign was prompted by a desire to "steal a march" on the
opposition center-right, take ownership of the issue and --
the PS hopes -- lead the debate, both on the question of yes
or no to the proposed constitution and on the domestic
political issues that will spill out from it. In addition,
recent polls are showing a weakening of support for the
proposed constitution among likely voters -- 60 percent
"yes", 40 percent "no," a 5 percent rise in the "no" tally
compared to a month ago. Furthermore, within the PS and it
allies -- such as the General Confederation of Workers (CGT)
whose members voted by 82 percent against the
pro-constitutional position of the their labor federation's
executive board -- the question of "yes" or "no" to the
proposed constitution remains embroiled in other issues, such
as Turkey's accession to the EU and fears that the
constitution will increase social dislocation by forcing
further market liberalization on France.


PS CAMPAIGN USES U.S. TO CALL FOR "A STRONGER EUROPE"
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3. (C) The campaign in support of a "yes" vote will be
anchored by 3,750 large billboards throughout France which
will say, "With all the Socialists of Europe, say yes to the
Constitutional Treaty." In addition to this lead theme that
focuses on the way the socialist parties of all other EU
Member States (except Malta) support the proposed
constitution, the campaign will include smaller posters
touting five other slogans, one of which will be "Yes to a
stronger Europe able to stand up to the United States." ("Oui
a une Europe plus forte face aux Etats-Unis".) COMMENT:
Clearly, in the view of PS strategists, anti-American
sentiment remains strong enough, particularly among
left-leaning voters, to make proposing that Europe should be
able to challenge U.S. leadership an incentive to vote for
the constitution. END COMMENT.


"YES" CAMP FOCUSES ON OVERALL VOTER TURN-OUT
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4. (C) Voter apathy, along with the realization that
anti-constitution forces -- even if motivated by anti-Turkey,
or anti-liberalization, or just anti-Chirac sentiments -- are
intent on turning out their "no" voters in the upcoming
referendum has infused urgency into pro-consitituionalists'
planning to educate and energize their voter base. Polls show
that a clear majority of likely voters continues to favor the
proposed EU Constitution, but by a margin that has narrowed
steadily during the past three months.
Pro-constitutionalists of both left and right fear that a
low, overall voter turn-out for the referendum, coupled with
a high turn-out of motivated, "protest" voters could skew
referendum results against the proposed constitution. On the
left, this has prompted the PS's early opening of its
pro-constitution campaign. On the right, this has prompted
the government of President Chirac to explore the possibility
of moving up the date of the referendum to late May (from mid
June) in the expectation that that would increase overall
turn-out and give opponents less time to stir up divisions
and resentments unrelated to the constitutional question.
Leach