CANADA: MISSILE DEFENSE DECISION CLEARS THE WAY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000663

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV CA SNAR MCAP
SUBJECT: CANADA: MISSILE DEFENSE DECISION CLEARS THE WAY
FOR CONSENSUS AT LIBERAL PARTY CONVENTION


1. (SBU) Summary: Canada,s Liberal Party will hold its
biennial convention in Ottawa from March 3 to 7. It will be
both a policy convention and a review of PM Martin,s
leadership. Martin is expected to handily survive the
review, and with missile defense now out of the way, only the
Same-Sex Marriage resolution is expected to provoke
substantial debate. A marijuana legalization item also made
its way onto the bottom of the agenda, but is not expected to
stir much controversy, and in fact beause it is so far down
the agenda, may not even be discussed before time runs out.
End Summary

The Delegates
--------------


2. (SBU) The governing Liberal Party of Canada will hold its
biennial convention in Ottawa between March 3 and 7. Select
riding association members, Parliamentarians, and Ex-Officio
members of the Liberal Party may attend the convention as
delegates. Riding associations can send fourteen delegates,
but media reports suggest that many have had trouble filling
their slots due to a lack of interest and the high cost. A
Liberal Party official said this week that 2,000 of 5,000
eligible participants will attend the convention, and
insisted this was a good number for a convention that is not
electing a new leader. Media sources, however, cite Liberal
insiders as saying the party will be lucky to attract 1,500
people, and some commentators suggest that because of the
expected small turnout, debate will be muted and
uninteresting. Prime Minister Martin and Liberal Caucus
Chair MP Andy Savoy are reportedly engaged in a campaign to
persuade MPs to encourage active participation.

The Leadership Review
--------------


3. (SBU) One key piece of business will be a review of Prime
Minister Paul Martin,s leadership. Commentators believe
that elite, levels of the party have conspired to allow
the PM to breeze through his first review by ensuring there
are no viable alternatives. National media have nonetheless
suggested the names of potential leadership candidates, none
of whom appear interested in interrupting Paul Martin,s term
as Prime Minister by starting the kind of informal leadership
campaign that Martin used to unseat Prime Minister Jean
Chrtien. Some media commentators take this free-pass
leadership review as the reason why riding associations
appear generally disinterested in the process.

The Policy Element
--------------


4. (SBU) An ambitious policy agenda features 88 items, but
the only policy items that are expected to draw notice are
the Same-Sex Marriage resolution. There was a growing sense
that the convention would put Liberal Party divisions on
display, which is undoubtedly the reason why PM Martin felt
it necessary to get the missile defense issue off the table.
The structure of the convention is still somewhat in flux,
but it appears there will be a series of 12 workshops to
discuss the 88 items, some of which will receive focus as
Priority Resolutions.


5. (SBU) The resolution on same-sex marriage was co-sponsored
by the Liberal Party,s Standing Committee on Policy
Development, indicating that it came from high levels of the
Liberal government and the Young Liberals of Canada. There
is still significant resistance to same-sex marriage in the
Liberal caucus and the convention will be a rare opportunity
for opponents of the plan to speak out against the
legislation and garner some headlines before debate resumes
in the House of Commons.


6. (SBU) The Alberta wing of the Liberal Party sponsored a
call for the complete legalization and taxation of marijuana.
National media reports that the University of Calgary Young
Liberals forced this resolution through the provincial body.
This resolution is not a priority item and is the last of
five issues that the Justice and Constitutional Workshop must
address in one and a half hours, so it is not likely that the
resolution will pass and it may not even receive much
attention. It should be noted, however, that the leader of
the Marijuana Party of Canada, Marc Boris St-Maurice,
announced Monday that he would be quitting his party and
joining the Liberal Party to attend the convention and will
try to raise the profile of the marginalized resolution and
marijuana bills before the house.


7. (SBU) Comment: The missile defense debate was shaping up
to be a divisive issue in this convention that would have
highlighted the fissures in the party while possibly leading
to an embarrassing vote against Canada,s joining the
program. And it didn,t help that the most serious opponents
of the missile defense program are from the Quebec wing of
the party where Martin needs to make inroads if the Liberals
are to regain a majority government. Thus Martin felt he had
to put this issue to rest before the convention. This leaves
only the same-sex marriage issue to underscore the party,s
divisions, the debate over which will be filled with tension,
but manageable. If well-handled, it could even reduce the
&democratic deficit,8 one of Martin,s key campaign
promises. Though media commentary suggests a disconnect
between Liberal Elites and the party grassroots on the
question of the leadership review, at the policy level it
appears that the grassroots are active in promoting their
agendas. End Comment
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