Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05OTTAWA603
2005-02-25 20:06:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ottawa
Cable title:  

GOC HINTS THAT IT WILL SOON AUTHORIZE ALASKA GAS

Tags:  ENRG ETRD EPET CA NPA 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000603 

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CAN AND EB/ESC/IEC
DOE FOR IA: PUMPHREY, DEVITO, DEUTSCH
DOE ALSO FOR OFFICE OF OIL AND GAS GLOBAL SECURITY: KORNFELD
STATE PASS USTR: CHANDLER
STATE PASS FERC: LONGENECKER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/24/2015
TAGS: ENRG ETRD EPET CA NPA
SUBJECT: GOC HINTS THAT IT WILL SOON AUTHORIZE ALASKA GAS
PIPELINE UNDER NPA

REF: A. OTTAWA 429

B. OTTAWA 0134

C. 04 OTTAWA 3414

Classified By: Minister Counselor for Economic Affairs Michael F. Galla
gher. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000603

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CAN AND EB/ESC/IEC
DOE FOR IA: PUMPHREY, DEVITO, DEUTSCH
DOE ALSO FOR OFFICE OF OIL AND GAS GLOBAL SECURITY: KORNFELD
STATE PASS USTR: CHANDLER
STATE PASS FERC: LONGENECKER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/24/2015
TAGS: ENRG ETRD EPET CA NPA
SUBJECT: GOC HINTS THAT IT WILL SOON AUTHORIZE ALASKA GAS
PIPELINE UNDER NPA

REF: A. OTTAWA 429

B. OTTAWA 0134

C. 04 OTTAWA 3414

Classified By: Minister Counselor for Economic Affairs Michael F. Galla
gher. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Top Canadian officials have indicated their
desire to move quickly on northern pipeline issues, providing
clues on which permitting process Canada will use to
authorize its section of the Alaska Gas Pipeline. In a
series of meetings with a delegation led by Alaska Governor
Frank Murkowski, senior Canadian government officials,
including Minister of Natural Resources John Efford and
Deputy Prime Minister Anne McClellan, hinted that Canada will
endorse the Northern Pipeline Act (NPA) as the relevant legal
authority for construction of the Canadian portion of the
pipeline. Prime Minister Martin, while withholding direct
comment on the merits of the NPA versus an alternative
regulatory regime, pledged to move as quickly as possible to
advance the project. Deputy Prime Minister McClellan also
stressed the urgency for Canada to resolve a separate
deadlock over the Mackenzie Valley Gas Pipeline, so that the
Mackenzie delays do not impact on the Alaska line. End
Summary.


2. (U) Embassy ESTOFF accompanied a joint Alaska-Yukon
delegation headed by Governor Murkowski and Yukon Premier
Dennis Fentie, who paid a series of calls February 23-24 on
cabinet officers and Prime Minister Martin to discuss Alaska
pipeline issues. The delegation also raised the proposed
Alaska-Yukon "Rails to Resources" project, which Embassy will
report septel. Governor Murkowski and his staff have not
cleared this message.

EFFORD TILTS TOWARDS THE NPA?
--------------


3. (C) Minister of Natural Resources Efford told Governor
Murkowski and Premier Fentie that the GOC wants to move
"expeditiously" on the issue of permitting the Alaska Gas
Pipeline. Efford stressed that Canada should not be the
cause of any undue delays on the pipeline, especially in the
wake of congressional passage late last year of $18 billion

U.S. in loan guarantees and tax credits for the pipeline's
construction. Efford did not directly comment on the current
stalemate between Calgary-based TransCanada Pipelines Ltd.,
which contends that it holds valid and exclusive certificates
to construct the pipeline under the NPA, and producers
ExxonMobil, BP and Conoco-Phillips, who argue that Canada's
National Energy Board (NEB) already provides an alternative
permitting process that would not lock them into doing
business solely with TransCanada. In referring to the NPA,
however, Efford commented that "it is easier to manage
existing legislation." Efford said that the GOC would come
to a decision within a few weeks, and that the GOC recognizes
the benefits of a 48-inch pipeline. (The NPA requires a
48-inch pipeline, which can be manufactured in North America.
A 2001 study of the project by the producers assumed a
52-inch pipeline, which could only come from Asia.)


4. (C) Efford's chief of staff, Lou McGuire, proceeded to
lay out further reasons why the NPA might be preferable to
National Energy Board permitting, including that the GOC has
been complicit in acknowledging the validity of the NPA by
approving TransCanada's "pre-build," a network of gas
pipelines in Alberta into which the Alaska line will
eventually be connected. McGuire said that with the NPA,
there is a "plan on the table," and criticized the producers
for failing to develop a credible alternative.

PM AND DPM VOW NOT TO DELAY THE PROCESS
--------------


5. (C) In a separate meeting, Prime Minister Martin and
Deputy Prime Minister McClellan told Governor Murkowski and
Premier Fentie that the GOC would soon move decisively on the
Alaska Gas Pipeline permitting issue. The Prime Minister did
not appear to be familiar with relative merits of the NPA
versus the NEB, but Deputy Prime Minister McClellan commented
that the NPA "is a more streamlined process." McClellan also
said that she hoped that the stakeholders could resolve their
differences and work together, but repeated Efford's comment
that a GOC decision would be forthcoming in two to three
weeks. The Prime Minister told Governor Murkowski that the
GOC "will do whatever the hell we have to do" to get the
project moving.

MACKENZIE, ALASKA, AND THE DEH CHO BAND
--------------

6. (C) In response to a question from Governor Murkowski,
Deputy Prime Minister McClellan expressed frustration with
the slow progress of negotiations with the Mackenzie Valley's
Deh Cho band. Along among the aboriginal groups in the
Mackenzie Valley, the Deh Cho have yet to endorse the
Mackenzie Valley Gas Pipeline. When completed, the line will
run from Inuvik in the Northwest Territories through the
Mackenzie Valley to Alberta, where a large portion of the gas
may eventually be used to supply energy and feedstock in the
oilsands. McClellan opined that Deh Cho leader Herb
Norwegian appears to have overplayed his hand in holding out
for more benefits, and that some of the other Deh Cho leaders
are becoming impatient over the delays. McClellan expressed
concern that if there is progress on the Alaska line but not
Mackenzie Valley, Alaska could end up being built first and
delay Mackenzie by a decade or more. (There is an industry
consensus that the Mackenzie Valley line should be built
first, and then Alaska, but that there are insufficient labor
and resources to build the two lines simultaneously.)
McClellan said the GOC "may need to play hardball" with the
Deh Cho and exercise GOC authority over the recalcitrant band.

COMMENT
--------------


7. (C) At the risk of being proved wrong in a few weeks
time, we predict that the GOC will endorse the NPA as the
valid permitting authority for the Alaska Gas Pipeline.
Senior GOC officials appear to have concluded that they will
inevitably be sued no matter what they do: by TransCanada if
they abandon the NPA endorse an NEB process, or by the
producers if they endorse the NPA. However reluctantly, they
appear to have concluded that the NPA is nevertheless their
best option. Industry officials have told us that any
decision by the GOC will at least force the stakeholders to
begin negotiations with each other. The way forward will be
uncertain and litigious, but at least it will be a way
forward.

Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa

CELLUCCI