MARTIN GOVERNMENT EXPECTED TO ANNOUNCE THIS WEEK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000572

SIPDIS

NOFORN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/2013
TAGS: PREL MARR CA NORAD
SUBJECT: MARTIN GOVERNMENT EXPECTED TO ANNOUNCE THIS WEEK
IT WILL NOT SIGN ONTO BMD: IT'S ALL ABOUT DOMESTIC POLITICS


Classified By: POL M/C Brian Flora. REASON 1.4 (B) AND (D).

1.(C/NF) Privy Council Clerk (Canada's highest ranking civil
servant) Alex Himelfarb called the Ambassador February 22 to
inform him that Prime Minister Martin had decided not to move
forward with a discussion and vote on missile defense in the
House of Commons at this time, or at the Liberal policy
convention in Ottawa, March 3-6. Himelfarb further indicated
to the Ambassador that the 2005-06 budget (due to be
announced February 23) would substantially boost defense
spending, and indicated that this significant increase was
linked to the political decision to stand down on missile
defense. Prime Minister Martin reiterated this message
personally in a February 23 call to the Ambassador. The PM
explained that his decision to pull missile defense off the
parliamentary agenda was driven by concern that the debate in
the Commons and at the Liberal convention would be extremely
divisive and would serve as a platform for loud
anti-Americanism. Martin said that he planned to announce
his decision in the House of Commons on February 24, and that
he would reaffirm his government's commitment to common
defense goals when he discussed his proposed C$12.8 billion
defense budget increase.


2. (C/NF) Citing PMO sources, most Canadian media reported on
February 23 that the Martin government was prepared to
announce this week that it will opt out of further
participation in bmd. The national news agency, the Canadian
Press, said the news had been conveyed on the margins of the
NATO summit, and in diplomatic channels in Ottawa and
Washington. One Canadian official was quoted as stating that
the decision was a "firm no," though not necessarily an
"indefinite no."


3. (C/NF) Canadian Ambassador-designate Frank McKenna
unleashed a political firestorm February 22 when he told
reporters that Canada is "already in" the U.S. missile
defense system by virtue of NORAD's participation in the
early warning and threat assessment functions (ITW/AA) for
incoming missiles. The Opposition seized the occasion in
yesterday's Commons Question Period to accuse the government
of dishonesty and contempt of Parliament by failing to submit
the bmd "decision" to a Parliamentary vote. In his response,
Defense Minister Bill Graham asserted that "no decision" has
been made and that McKenna's statements referred only to an
aspect of NORAD's functions and not/not the broader
participation in the U.S. bmd program.


4. (C/NF) Opposition staff (protect) contacted the political
section to share their scripted approach for the February 23
Question Period in the House, and to get Embassy's reaction
to the "news" that Canada was opting out of further
participation in bmd. Our interlocutor volunteered that he
thought the Ambassador-designate's perspective probably
reflected the views of Foreign Affairs Canada and DND, but
that McKenna had not considered the implications of his
public statement for the minority government. Our contact
said he "hoped" the U.S. would not lend credence to the
government's position, as the Opposition wanted to "expose"
the government's dishonesty with the Canadian public.

COMMENT


5. (C/NF) The Martin government, which has pledged a better
relationship with the U.S., anticipates that there will be
fallout in Washington over its decision not to join the
missile defense program. It is banking on its C$ 12.8
billion dollar increase in the defense budget and last year's
decision to amend the NORAD agreement to reassure us of
Canada's commitment as a reliable security and defense
partner. Though the GOC is taking the same "even though"
approach as its predecessor did in the decision not to join
the Iraq coalition, the Prime Minister's personal assurances
to the Ambassador reflect a more thoughtful strategy and
greater concern for U.S. perceptions.


6. (C/NF) The Prime Minister and his political advisors see
everything through the prism of regaining a Liberal majority
in the next elections. The consistent anti-missile defense
posture of the Quebec electorate (about 25 percent of the
national population) as reflected in various polls, and more
recent motions against bmd by important segments of the
Liberal Party itself -- the women's caucus and "young
Liberals"-- strongly suggest that pursuing bmd participation
would derail Martin's chances at the next polls. Martin is
also looking to the Liberal Party's policy convention next
week, where he faces a full plate of controversy with the
Government's advocacy of same-sex marriage and
decriminalization of marijuana.

7. (C/NF) The Conservative Party, though professing to be
supportive of Canadian participation in missile defense, has
used this issue to further its political ambitions. Rather
than make the case why Canada should support missile defense,
the official Opposition consistently has sought to exploit
the Liberals' internal divisions on the issue, beginning with
its insistence, in the throne speech Amendment last
September, that the Government submit bmd to a parliamentary
vote. END COMMENT.

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