PM MARTIN,S SEARCH FOR A "BIG IDEA" IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000494

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/14/2014
TAGS: PGOV MCAP PREL CA
SUBJECT: PM MARTIN,S SEARCH FOR A "BIG IDEA" IN
INTERNATIONAL POLICY REVIEW MAY HAVE COST HIM HIS FIRST VOTE

Classified By: POLMINCOUNS Brian Flora, reasons 1.4 (b) (d)


1. (C) Summary: The Government lost its first vote February
15 when the Opposition Parties banded together to vote
against two pieces of legislation that would have divided the
Foreign Affairs Ministry from the Department of International
Trade. The move took PM Martin,s Liberals by surprise,
having been assured earlier of the support of the
Conservative caucus. One Conservative MP pointed to
frustration over the thrice-delayed rollout of the
International Policy Review as the reason, while another
noted that the opposition resented the government's
unwillingness to engage in serious consultations. A
parliamentary analyst added that it was only a matter of time
before the Opposition flexed its muscles to show the
government it cannot govern like a majority. The delay in
the rollout of the IPR came after PM Martin sent the paper
back to Foreign Affairs in search of a &big idea,8
something which prominent Canadian scholar Jennifer Welsh was
asked to help find. End Summary

GOVERNMENT ENDURES FIRST NO VOTE
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2. (C) The Government was stunned when it was handed its
first legislative defeat February 15 on two minor,
non-confidence bills that would have divided the Ministry of
Foreign Affairs from the Department of International Trade.
This fairly routine piece of legislation was needed to
formally implement a year-old decision that has already been
operational in the functioning of the two departments and the
Liberals believed they had the votes to formalize it. But
the Conservatives decided to oppose the measures, and joined
the other opposition parties to handily defeat them 158-125.
Several MPs told us at a lunch on February 16 that the bills,
which were defeated on its second reading, could be
reintroduced with minor modifications later in the session.



3. (C) Conservative MP Ted Menzies blamed the continual delay
of the International Policy Review, which would have
clarified the rationale for the legislation and Canada,s
long-term international strategy, for the no vote. A
Parliamentary analyst agreed that the delay in the IPR
frustrated the Opposition, but added that the opposition took
the government,s casualness in managing the legislation as
arrogance and wanted to put the government on notice that it
must govern with a bit more humility and a good deal more
consultation. Conservative Belinda Stronach said it was
arrogant to begin the separation of the departments before
consultations with Parliament, stating publicly "it's a big
mistake to take Parliament for granted."

PM MARTIN SEARCHES FOR THE BIG IDEA IN INTERNATIONAL POLICY
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4. (C) Canada,s long-awaited International Policy Review
(IPR) had hit a snag earlier in the month when PM Martin sent
the document back to its drafters for lack of a &big idea.8
The document was later sent to Canadian scholar Jennifer
Welsh, resident at Oxford, who was reportedly tasked with
sharpening its focus and giving it an organizing principle.
Welsh, who is the author of &At Home in the World: Canada,s
Global Vision for the 21st Century,8 is well-respected in
foreign policy circles here and her book is standard reading
for Canada,s foreign policy elites. It is not clear what
her timetable is, but it appears the document may not beat
the budget roll out later in the month. Policy Planners were
hoping that the IPR would be completed in time to help
support the foreign affairs budget, but also indicated that
some key programs, such as the Reconstruction and
Stabilization Task Force (START),were already lined into the
budget and the broad thrust of the document is already
reflected.


5. (C) Policy Planners at Foreign Affairs Canada, who have
the lead on drafting the IPR, have expressed frustration with
the process their review has taken. While lead drafter Rob
McRae started with the concept of a very orderly method that
would begin with a structured review of Canada,s interests
in a changing world, then attempt to chart a vision for
integrating the three D,s of Defense, Diplomacy, and
Development, he complained that during the review process
individual agencies began to pile into the document their
parochial interests and it soon became a hodge-podge of
programs and policies.


6. (C) Alain Pellerin, Executive Director of the Conference
of Defense Analysts told us that the broad International
Policy Review McRae envisioned was downgraded to a Foreign
Policy Statement, more a large sound bite than a white paper.
He believes that the big idea Martin is searching for is
something akin to the &responsibility to protect8 concept
that Canada rolled out at the last UNGA. Ever a proponent of
higher defense spending here to increase the capabilities and
deployability of the Canadian Armed Forces, Pellerin laments
the fact that there is no connection between such lofty
concepts and the reality that protection requires protectors
who can travel, something Canada,s military is sorely
lacking.

WHAT IN THE WORLD TO DO
--------------


7. (C) The core of the IPR will probably still recommend a
small increase in defense spending which puts emphasis on the
army over the other branches as the best equipped service to
respond to global crises. It will also likely push to
increase the size of Canada,s diplomatic presence abroad --
Canada,s foreign service is currently the most homebound of
any G-8 country. And it will focus Canada,s aid programs on
fewer but more strategically important countries, with
special emphasis on countries whose success can enhance
regional stability or have secondary value.


8. (C) MP Nathan Cullen, of the left of center New Democratic
Party, told us he believes the IPR is lacking a vision for
Canada in the world and this is what may have frustrated the
Prime Minister. It isn,t enough to integrate the three
D,s, he said, if their integration does not lead to Canada
staking out a position in the world that is true to its
capacity and its values. He sees Canada as having a unique
capability as an honest broker in regional conflicts and
would support a more robust military capacity as long as it
was limited to the kinds of conventional post-conflict
peacekeeping and nation-building at which Canada excels. He
would like to see Canada stake out a niche for itself through
this process that would clarify for the Canadian people and
the international community what the country is doing in the
world.

COMMENT
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9. (C) An attention-getting vote by the opposition may have
been predictable. That it took place on such a routine
measure indicates that it was designed more to send a signal
to the Liberals than to cause the government to fall. In
any case, the vote will force the government to consult more
openly with the opposition before legislation is taken to the
floor, and it creates a more cautious environment overall and
will slow the pace of business in Parliament. And, ever
conscious in the thinking of the political class is the
possibility that the government is always just one misstep
away from an election.


10. (C) With regards to the International Policy Review, PM
Martin,s minority status will undercut any temptation to
venture something genuinely bold, but the opposition "no"
vote will bring pressure to break the document free. The
hand-wringing among Canada,s elites about the country,s
declining position in the world does not necessarily
translate into a strong constituency for a more muscled
international involvement, and there is no agreed consensus
on what that involvement would be in any event. With a
caucus already divided on missile defense and same-sex
marriage and a razor-thin margin in Parliament, Martin cannot
afford to break much new ground.

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