Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05OTTAWA437
2005-02-11 17:46:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ottawa
Cable title:  

CANADA,S DIMINISHING PRESENCE ON WORLD STAGE --

Tags:  PGOV PREL HA CA UNGA MEPP 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 OTTAWA 000437 

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA, WHA, S/P, S/CRS, IO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2009
TAGS: PGOV PREL HA CA UNGA MEPP
SUBJECT: CANADA,S DIMINISHING PRESENCE ON WORLD STAGE --
DOES CONCERN IN CANADA EQUAL OPPORTUNITY FOR ENHANCED
ENGAGEMENT?

Classified By: Polmincouns Brian Flora, reasons 1.4 (b) (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 OTTAWA 000437

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA, WHA, S/P, S/CRS, IO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2009
TAGS: PGOV PREL HA CA UNGA MEPP
SUBJECT: CANADA,S DIMINISHING PRESENCE ON WORLD STAGE --
DOES CONCERN IN CANADA EQUAL OPPORTUNITY FOR ENHANCED
ENGAGEMENT?

Classified By: Polmincouns Brian Flora, reasons 1.4 (b) (d)


1. (C) Summary: A recent report reflecting the views of
world leaders and policymakers on Canada's slippage in global
clout has caused a small stir here. The paper by the former
President of Bombardier International posits that Canada
should put muscle behind its human security agenda by
creating a rapid deployment brigade that can move quickly to
global hotspots; act as a Global Think Tank on tough
international issues and governance challenges; craft the
next North American agenda; provide renewed leadership in
development; and use education to build relationships with a
new generation of decision-makers around the world. Canada's
eagerness to find a relevant role presents us with an
opportunity to engage them on any number of issues. With the
right urging and coordination, Canada may be able to offer
more help to the Middle East Peace Process, for example, or
could take on a leadership role in Haiti. End Summary

IS CANADA MAKING A DIFFERENCE?
--------------


2. (SBU) A report on Canada's place in the world released
January 27 by former President of Bombardier International
Robert Greenhill has received some attention here over the
past several weeks. This and the upcoming International
Policy Review (Septel) may provide an opportunity for us to
engage Canada and find synergy in working on certain global
issues. The paper, "Making a Difference? External Views on
Canada's International Impact" follows in the wake of several
books in recent years such as "Who Killed the Canadian
Military" and "While Canada Slept" that decried the slippage
of Canada's international position from middle power to
muddling power.


3. (C) Along with Jennifer Welch's "A Place in the World,"
this line of thought is that Canada needs to find a
comfortable but prominent place on the global stage which
plays on its strengths as a multi-cultural, successfully
governed country with a dynamic economy and highly-talented
populace. This niche would be independent of, but closely

related to, the United States. Most recommendations affirm
that Canada should maintain its neutrality and use that
position to help in the world where others with historical
baggage cannot, but not obsess so much over neutrality as to
end up inert.


4. (SBU) Greenhill's approach differed from this traditional
Canadian naval gazing by going out into the world and
engaging current and former global policy makers such as John
Hamre, Richard Haass, Henry Kissinger, and Jeffrey Sachs
(among others from Africa, Europe and Asia) to see how they
view Canada. His intent was to clarify what international
role Canada has traditionally played in the view of world
leaders, and to make specific recommendations about what role
it should play in the future. Greenhill presented his paper
at a conference sponsored by Canada 25, an organization of
young people who seek greater influence and involvement in
Canadian foreign policy. He effectively stole the show, and
press reports on the conference the next day did not even
mention the presence of Jennifer Welch on the panel, or the
sponsors themselves. Rather they went right to Greenhill's
findings and conclusions - the National Post headlining
"Canada Virtually Insignificant on World Stage," and the
Ottawa Citizen decrying "Canada Now a Bit Player Globally,
Survey Finds."

YOU ARE LIVING OFF YOUR REPUTATION
--------------


5. (SBU) The paper, which was written using Chatham House
rules, is eminently quotable, and has one Canadian
interviewee summing up Canada's diminishing influence with
Washington by saying "10 years ago, Canada had little
influence in Washington. Now it has less." An American said
"You are not on the radar screen down here, including with
foreign policy elites." A third, "never did anyone in the
planning process say 'before doing this we must talk to
Canada." Most of those interviewed remembered a time when
Canada mattered, but as one individual summed up, referring
specifically to peacekeeping: "for the past 15 years you have
lived off your reputation." Others lamented that Canada had
not kept up with the changing world, one stating that Canada
was once a bridge between the US and UK, but "the UK co-opted
your strategy, and positioned themselves as the bridge
between the US and Europe." The most damning was the simple
statement referring to the debacle of whether or not to
support the Iraq operation: "Canada has taken itself off the
list of friends."


6. (C) But Greenhill is not just interested in a snivelfest,
his key intention is to move Canadian policymakers to start
to make the hard decisions to return Canada to a position of
prominence on the world stage. His conclusion is that the
country needs to "differentiate and focus." He says Canada
should decide on a few areas, invest deeply and become
indispensable: in those areas Canada should be considered
pre-eminent, in terms of experience, capabilities, and
resources." The areas he suggests are:

-- Putting muscle behind the human security agenda. In what
was the most noteworthy of his recommendations for the press,
Greenhill recommends that Canada create a swift, mobile, and
autonomous brigade of peacekeepers that could be dispatched
in the first weeks of an emergency and sustained for at least
two months. It could provide rapid conflict resolution,
rapid humanitarian relief, or muscular enforcement under the
Responsibility to Protect. It would be particularly useful
in areas where other countries with similar capabilities
would not be able to intervene because of political or
historical baggage.

-- Acting as a Global Think Tank on tough international
issues and governance challenges. The idea here is to take
issues of global significance, e.g. UN reform, a new nuclear
fuel cycle protocol to reduce the dangers of proliferation,
conservation of the oceans, post-Kyoto climate change accord,
and bring together the best minds in the world to explore new
options. It would be a results-oriented, extremely focused
effort to tackle issues that are either stuck in traditional
IO's or are not receiving adequate attention.

-- Crafting the next North American agenda. This is a
somewhat vague recommendation that involves stronger direct
involvement with Mexico to better work the issues of energy,
security, immigration, and the environment.

-- Providing renewed leadership in development. Greenhill
looks at the success of a number of European countries,
especially Britain, in developing more effective aid
agencies, and recommends Canada make this a priority. It
would, he said, require sectoral and regional focus, and a
simple increase in resources.

-- Using education to build relationships with a new
generation of decision-makers around the world. Through
educational programs and partnerships abroad, Canada could
make a difference in education and establish key links with
the developing world in the process.

U.S.-CANADA COORDINATION
--------------


7. (C) The DCM and Polcouns met with Mr. Greenhill on
January 6 to discuss his findings and how they have been
received in Ottawa. Greenhill believes his paper will add to
the debate here but was not sure it has a particular champion
in the current government. Independent of his study,
however, he believes that Canada is seeking a way to become
more prominent and play a more active role in the world, and
the notion of focusing is starting to resonate. Rather than
having 2-3 percent of the force in every peacekeeping mission
on earth, he postulated, Canada would like to have 10-30
percent of a few missions, and take more of a long-term
leadership role in them.


8. (C) Greenhill said that the U.S., however, must be
extremely careful in how it promotes greater Canadian
involvement in the world. Iraq is for the current
generation, Greenhill said, a kind of Viet Nam experience,
which has turned young Canadians against the U.S. in a
knee-jerk reaction. Overt U.S. urging that Canada take a
more activist global position or increase defense spending
will simply not be well received here, and will generally be
counter-productive. But Greenhill believes that behind the
scenes, working with Canadian policymakers, we can find a
good deal of synergy and help Canada find its niche. If we
could identify the one or two issues where Canada could lead,
we could quietly work with the GOC to carve out a viable role.

THE MIDDLE EAST AND HAITI
--------------


9. (C) The two places that came to mind for Greenhill are
the Middle East and Haiti. On the Middle East, Greenhill
said that Canada has been seeking a more active role on its
own, but believes that only with very specific back-channel
coordination with the U.S. would it be effective. On Haiti,
Greenhill sees the current program as one of avoiding failure
without committing fully to success. He believes Haiti is
made to order for a Canadian leadership role in terms of
language, resource requirements, and risk. Why couldn't
Canada take on the leadership of Haiti's reconstruction for a
sustained period of time -- ten years if that is what it
takes, he asked? Again he believes that only with close
coordination and behind-the-scenes urging from the United
States would this happen.


10. (C) Comment: Greenhill's paper has Canadians thinking.
It provides a good opportunity for us to engage with them on
these issues and if we believe it would be helpful, to
discreetly propose several places where they could play a
leadership role in the world. Greenhill himself suggested
the usefulness of an extended discussion with Canadian
foreign policy planners, at the Asst. Secretary level. Such
a discussion could highlight areas for Canadian
involvement/leadership role. We agree and would be willing
to facilitate this kind of discussion.

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CELLUCCI