Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05OTTAWA3580
2005-12-02 22:54:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ottawa
Cable title:  

QUAD MEETING ON SRI LANKA IN OTTAWA

Tags:  AS CA KDEM PGOV PREL PTER SL UK 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 OTTAWA 003580 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2015
TAGS: AS CA KDEM PGOV PREL PTER SL UK
SUBJECT: QUAD MEETING ON SRI LANKA IN OTTAWA

Classified By: POLMINCOUNS Brian Flora, reasons 1.5 (b) (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 OTTAWA 003580

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2015
TAGS: AS CA KDEM PGOV PREL PTER SL UK
SUBJECT: QUAD MEETING ON SRI LANKA IN OTTAWA

Classified By: POLMINCOUNS Brian Flora, reasons 1.5 (b) (d)


1. (C) Summary: A Quad meeting was held in Ottawa November 29
on Sri Lanka on the margins of scheduled meetings on
Bangladesh and Pakistan. The participants expressed concern
over the downward spiral in the peace process and slackening
international attention to Sri Lanka. The participants
agreed on four action items: 1) Coordinate messages and
declarations from capitals in order to give them more weight
and consistency; 2) Refresh the Co-Chair process; 3)
Coordinate on the listing of LTTE as a terrorist
organization; and 4) Hold another meeting in the spring at
the DG or above level. End Summary


2. (SBU) Poloff attended the Quad meeting on Sri Lanka
November 29 hosted by Canadian Foreign Ministry South Asia
Deputy Director Glen Hodgins on the margins of the scheduled
meeting on Bangladesh. Other attendees included Australian
DFAT South Asia Director Peter Howarth and UK FCO South Asia
Director Anthony Stokes. The meeting was held largely at the
behest of Howarth, whose wanted to maximize his being in
Ottawa after travel from Canberra.

VIEW FROM CANADA
--------------


3. (C) Hodgins began with an overview of Canada's interest in
Sri Lanka, which is centered on the 200,000 strong Tamil
community here, much of which comes from LTTE controlled
territory. Hodgins said Canada is concerned the peace
process has gone off the rails and sees a self-destructive
downward spiral, with "internal inertia that will soon be
beyond self-correction." He referred to a "criminal
inability to work things out," in large part, because people
in the South "haven't suffered enough." The Sinhalese were
relatively unaffected by the conflict and in some ways
benefited from it, Hodgins said, while the Tamils have
suffered much in the last 20 years and won't agree to a
settlement without a large payout.


4. (C) Hodgins said the GOC is concerned with the
"de-internationalization" of the conflict. The Tokyo
Co-Chairs, he said, have outlasted their utility and "no one

pays attention to them any more." Canada has been engaged in
the peace process since the Oslo discussions in 2002, largely
through the efforts of former Ontario Premier Bob Rae and the
Forum of Federations which he directs. Rae and the Forum
spent a good deal of time advising LTTE negotiator Tamil
Cheldun and others on the federalism issue, but the Sri
Lankan government negotiators were cool to the concept,
understanding it as a simple devolution of power.


5. (C) Hodgins spent a good bit of time explaining Canada's
position on the listing of LTTE and emphasized that Canada
has been unfairly judged over the issue. He said Canada
listed the LTTE as of 7 November 2001 as part of the UN
Suppression of Terrorism motion. Since the mid-90's the GOC
had not allowed LTTE members entry into Canada. He noted
Britain went further in banning membership altogether, but
added that Canada cannot legally do this because of its
Charter of Rights.


6. (C) Stokes asked whether there was an issue with listing
the LTTE under Canada's criminal code in addition to the UN
listing. Hodgins responded that policymakers are debating
the issue, but have been unable to reach consensus on which
activities to criminalize and what would be considered
facilitation of criminal or terrorist activities under the
law. Part of the problem, he said, is that this would
involve criminalizing activities that are currently legal,
which would be poorly received by Tamil constituents so
unlikely to get through Parliament. The new government could
revisit LTTE policy, and certainly a Conservative minority
government would be more inclined to take a more hard-line
position. Toward the end of the meeting, when listing was
suggested as one of the four key issues to come out of the
meeting, Hodgins went further, saying "it is only a matter of
time on listing LTTE."


7. (C) In terms of a long-term prognosis, Hodgins said he
believes there will be a breakdown in the cease-fire and a
return to hostilities. In his view, the LTTE would be
initially successful, taking the east and Jaffna, but in the
long-run they would be defeated. He said the government
lacks intelligence, not manpower, and if provided
intelligence on Tamil troop movements (e.g. by the U.S.),
would be able to defeat the LTTE. Hodgins suggested that
violence could break out as early as six months hence, or the
two sides could muddle along for 18-plus months before
returning to hostilities.


8. (C) Hodgins suggested that the Quad reconvene in the
spring of 2006 at the DG level to discuss Sri Lanka further.
He suggested bringing in some outside experts on the peace
process to look at what is going wrong and how to move the
process further. The key, he believes, will be increasing
international support. Stokes and Howarth concurred that
such a meeting would be beneficial. Hodgins finally
suggested that the "elephant in the room" was Karuna and the
split in the LTTE, but lamented that this was something he
can't convince the intelligence community to focus on.

VIEW FROM THE UK
--------------


9. (C) Stokes said the UK analysis is also that the situation
on the ground is getting worse, not better. HMG officials
have criticized the LTTE as unhelpful on several issues:
first, urging Tamils to essentially boycott the elections
(either because the LTTE really did not want them to go
forward, or because they wanted to increase their leverage);
and second, Balasingham's Heroes Day speech. In short, the
UK shares the assessment that there is a downward spiral and
wants to keep attention on Sri Lanka in particular so as to
find ways to urge restraint. HMG believes it is vital to
coordinate, and fully supports the idea of a spring meeting.


VIEW FROM AUSTRALIA
--------------


10. (SBU) Howarth asked if it would be possible to add a day
of policy discussions to the Quad information exchange in
order to talk about strategy. Since the Australian rep will
have traveled so far they want to get as much value out of
the talks as possible.


11. (C) Howarth said that Australia was greatly disappointed
with the election as it had hoped for a better outcome in
terms of participation. Some commentators, he said, believe
the outcome strengthened President Mahinda Rajapaksa's hand
in the negotiations with the Tamils, and wondered if he could
yet be the Ariel Sharon of Sri Lanka.


12. (C) Howarth said the listing issue is of great interest
to Australia as well. Australia lists LTTE under the UN list
but not as a terrorist organization under domestic
legislation on terrorism. This was on hold pending the last
election, but with the assassination of Kadirigama, it is
back on the agenda. He mentioned that Kadirigama's
assassination personally affected the FM, since they had had
many encounters. The GOA wants to take a more hard-line
position on the LTTE, and include criminal sanctions.
Howarth said the Sri Lankan diaspora in Australia is somewhat
balanced compared to Canada's, which is 90% Tamil. Howarth
mentioned the case of an MP whose visa to Australia was held
until he signed a statement outlining his intentions and
accepting certain restrictions to his activities. Howarth
said if the peace process shows no progress, the Australians
would consider stronger steps. At present they are focusing
on cracking down on fundraising.


13. (C) Howarth said that a strong message needs to be sent
to President Rajapaksa, including the possibility of
sanctions. Hodgins expressed concern at the word sanctions,
for which he didn't think there would be support, but Howarth
corrected his intention as being investment restrictions, not
formal sanctions (Australia is a leading investor in Sri
Lanka).


14. (C) Howarth said the Australian Embassy in Copenhagen,
which covers Norway, heard that the Norwegians are thinking
about continuing as the lead for the peace process (UK had
also heard this; Canada wondered if they weren't looking for
a face-saving way to disengage). Hodgins also wondered if it
would be better if Norway were not both facilitator and
enforcer (head of PKO),but emphasized the importance of
outside support for its role as facilitator.


15. (SBU) Stokes suggested that there is a need for refreshed
Co-Chairs. Hodgins also believes there is a need to refresh
or even extend the Co-Chairs, perhaps a "friends of Sri
Lanka" group. He wondered if Switzerland would consider such
a role, especially given its potential as a federation and
its large Tamil diaspora.

16. (SBU) SA/INS has cleared this cable.

Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at
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WILKINS