NETHERLANDS/AFGHANISTAN: CANADA UNABLE TO BOOST

S E C R E T OTTAWA 003417

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2015
TAGS: MARR MOPS PREL AF NL CA
SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/AFGHANISTAN: CANADA UNABLE TO BOOST
DUTCH DEPLOYMENT

REF: THE HAGUE 3100 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: POL M/C Brian Flora. Reason 1.4 (b) and (d).

1.(S) National Defence (DND) Director of NATO Policy Col.
Neil Anderson (please protect) informed polmiloff on November
16 that Canada would not/not be able to accommodate a Dutch
request for 100 troops to support the Dutch deployment to
Oruzgan under ISAF Stage III. He volunteered that the
negative response was conveyed via "mil/mil channels"-- the
same channel in which the request was made -- following a CF
internal assessment. Anderson added that discussions with
the Dutch military were continuing, to determine if there are
other ways (NFI) in which Canada could lend support.


2. (S) Anderson said that key factors in Canada's decision
were the likely negative impact on CF availability for
potential "other" operations (above and beyond its February
2006 commitment to ISAF III) and cost. DND apparently has
reached the "outer limits" of the funding for Afghanistan
that was authorized by Cabinet earlier this year, he said.


3. (S) COMMENT: The possibility that the minority Liberal
government will be brought down by the end of November and
elections called for early 2006 is almost unavoidable.
Though unlikely to affect Canada's current military
commitments in Afghanistan, the domestic political dynamic is
unpredictable and Canada's professional military are
sensitive to becoming "a factor," even incidentally, in the
governing party's all-out effort to secure a parliamentary
majority in the next election. A retired Canadian military
officer who keeps close tabs on defense issues recently
shared his views on the Defense Minister's and Chief of
Defence Staff's ongoing public diplomacy campaigns which
underscore the possibility of Canadian casualties in
Kandahar. While praising their pro-active approach, our
contact had reservations about the effectiveness of the
effort if/when casualties are incurred during current and
planned deployments in southern Afghanistan, given the
public's aversion to military (vs. "peacekeeping")
operations. END COMMENT.

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WILKINS