CANADA ON U.S. POLICY TOWARD BELARUS -- ENGAGE

C O N F I D E N T I A L OTTAWA 003120

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/17/2015
TAGS: BO KDEM PREL PHUM EAID PGOV CA SCRS
SUBJECT: CANADA ON U.S. POLICY TOWARD BELARUS -- ENGAGE
FOREIGN NGO'S

REF: SECSTATE 188900

Classified By: POLMINCOUNS Brian Flora, reasons 1.4 (b) (d)


1. (C) Poloff shared U.S. views on democratization toward
Belarus with Habib Massoud, Deputy Director at Foreign
Affairs Canada for Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldavia. Massoud
was grateful for the readout of U.S. intentions in Belarus
and explained how Canada views its role in the region. As
part of the International Policy Statement, Canada is trying
to focus more effectively on issues where it has a
comparative advantage, and on specific regions and countries
where its influence can make a difference. The view of the
GOC is that Ukraine is more ripe for lasting reforms than
Belarus and is so more susceptible to specific Canadian
iniatives. With regards to Belarus, Canada does not have
strong interests, and does not see the country as very
reformable, so it will engage it on the same level as
Turkmenistan, effectively as a human rights problem. Massoud
did, however, indicate that Canada could shift its efforts
quickly if there were indications of a workable program for
reform taking hold in the short-term. He said he would
review our program with this in mind.


2. (C) With regards to specific aspects of Belarus policy and
possibilities, Massoud suggested that we try to involve
foreign NGOs in media outreach and in democratization
programs. He said that Serbian youth NGOs, for example, were
among the most effective in spreading the democratic fervor
to Ukraine and thought there may be a way to similarly get
them involved in Belarus. They would be more effective even
than foreign governments. Massoud also said he believes
European countries will need to get more involved to make any
efforts effective, and expressed Canada's disappointment that
they are not. U.S. support for democratization is key
symbolically but also distant, whereas countries such as
Poland, with a more immediate interest in the transition in
Belarus, should be able to do more and to do it more
effectively. There is also the danger, Massoud believes, of
too close association of democratization efforts by the U.S.,
which could be presented as a CIA plot to control the country
and thus backfire.


3. (C) Massoud believes that countries like Canada would be
able to shift resources quickly once there is an indication
that things are moving in the right direction. He does not
believe this will happen for 2006, and said that the GOC has
effectively written off the 2006 elections, and would focus
instead on 2010. He is not, in any event, convinced that
Lukashenko is so unpopular, and thinks he might be able to
win a free and fair election on his own. Massoud believes
including Russia as part of the strategy is also key, and he
thinks there is a good chance that Russia in the end may do
the right thing, not because it believes in democracy, but
because Moscow too is tiring of the old-school regime in
Belarus and fears instability that its perpetuation could
bring.


4. (SBU) Finally, Massoud asked about U.S. preparations for
the Parliamentary elections in Ukraine, and asked for us to
share anything we can in that regard to better inform
Canada's preparations.

Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa

WILKINS