UNCERTAINTY THE OPERATIVE WORD AS PARLIAMENT SET

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 OTTAWA 002726

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2015
TAGS: CA PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: UNCERTAINTY THE OPERATIVE WORD AS PARLIAMENT SET
TO RESUME


Classified By: POLMINCOUNS Brian Flora, reason 1.4 (B) (D)


1. (C) Summary: The Canadian Parliament is scheduled to
resume on September 27, amidst a political climate that is
best defined by uncertainty. PM Martin has the option to
prorogue Parliament, which would end the current session and
reset the agenda by calling for a new session and an early
confidence vote over the Throne Speech. This would buy him
some time and leverage but would be very unpopular with many
Canadians who want to see Parliament work. When the last
session ended the Canadian public seemed ready to punish the
Liberals over the corruption scandal, but without bringing in
the Conservatives in the process. How deep the chastening
process needs to go is not clear, but there are indications
that many feel it has gone far enough. The Conservatives
made no gains over the summer and the Liberals held their
own, and may be banking on the possibility of starting fresh
as a more humble party, ready to get down to business. It
also didn't hurt that in the last session the Liberals,
although struggling to survive, still chalked up a reasonable
record of accomplishments along the way.


2. (C) As Parliament resumes, all energies will be focused on
preparing for the next election, which PM Martin promised
would be held 30 days after the release of the Gomery report,
last scheduled for mid-December. A December-January election
is unlikely, however, given weather conditions, and it is
more likely that Martin will appeal for reason and set a date
for an early spring election, something the opposition would
be in no position to oppose beyond superficial protests for
appearances sake. The Liberals will use that period to shore
up their numbers, focusing on Quebec and Ontario, and barring
any major missteps will probably continue to at least hold
onto power as a minority government. The Conservative lack
of traction is related both to the deficiency of a compelling
agenda, and the absence of a leader that people outside of
Western Canada can rally behind. Conservative MP James Moore
believes the real problem with Stephen Harper is not just
that he comes across stiff, but also as a Western figurehead
who lacks the essential nationalist credentials that
Canadians require of their Prime Ministers. With so much up
in the air, the only certainty is that the next term, like
last year, will be a wild ride. End Summary

SESSION HIGHS AND LOWS
--------------


3. (SBU) In purely legislative terms, the Parliamentary
sitting from September to June was minimally successful.
(Note: a session of Parliament does not technically end until
it is prorogued or until an election is called, thus the
current Liberal Government still sits as the First Session of
the 38th Parliament, which will continue when Parliament
resumes. End Note). The average number of bills introduced
per session since September 1996 (when Parliament began
compiling statistics) is 57, with a high of 88 bills for a
two-year session in 1997 and a low of 37 in a two-month
session. These were all majority governments.


4. (SBU) In the nine months of the current session, 34 of 60
bills introduced have passed, a credible number given the
government's minority status. Critics pointed out that the
overall quality of the bills passed was lackluster -- there
were spending estimates, treaty obligations, and routine
business, including the Competition Act, the Canadian Grain
Act, and a bill on migratory birds, hardly the stuff of
headlines. But government supporters pointed to the
high-profile same-sex marriage bill, a hard-fought budget
bill, and laws on mental disorders, the protection of
children, and the veteran's charter as indicators that the
government was not just marking time.


5. (C) If the session was a bit slow, it was largely because
the Liberals spent a good deal of energy just trying to
survive. From the Throne Speech in early October the
Liberals went from being merely distracted as they tried to
find their footing in a minority parliament, to full crisis
mode as the Gomery inquiry into the Quebec advertising
scandal put them fully on defense in the spring. But the
Liberals proved adept at survival. Throughout the session
Liberal House Leader Tony Valeri (the "Dark Prince of
Parliamentary Procedure" according to the Hill Times) teamed
up with 40-year veteran Senior Legislative Counsel Jerry
Yanover to run circles around the Opposition -- canceling
opposition days, cutting off debate through obscure tactics
such as Time Allocation, and forcing unscheduled votes onto
their schedule.


6. (C) The Liberals also bought public support by painting
the Conservatives as in bed with the separatists, which was
chilling at a time when separatism was again raising its ugly
head (ironic, since revelations of the Liberal advertising
sponsorship program sparked renewed separatist sentiment in
the first place and the Liberals sought Bloc support for
legislation whenever they needed it). Throughout the session
the Liberals also looked for ways to chip away at the
Conservative numbers, buying the defection of Conservative
Belinda Stronach with a cabinet position, and welcoming that
of Independent Chuck Cadman, whose constituents did not want
to see an election so soon. Martin finally bought the
support of the NDP by pushing through a budget amendment that
was tailored to their core projects. All of this was shored
up by PM Martin's direct appeal to the Canadian people in a
televised address, in which he conceded blame, but promised
to get to the bottom of it by continuing the Gomery inquiry
and offered to call for an election 30 days after the release
of the Gomery report.


7. (C) In the end the Liberals came within one vote of losing
a confidence motion on May 19, but their survival bought them
the summer to regroup. It was a fairly high price to pay for
survival, but the Liberal's staying in power appeared to be
in synch with the Canadian public's wish to punish the Grits
without bringing the Tories into power.

MR. DITHERS? -- MAYBE NOT
--------------


8. (C) PM Martin's leadership was repeatedly questioned
during the session. His tendency to work on multiple issues
without bringing any of them to closure earned him the title
"Mr. Dithers." But according to Globe and Mail's Lawrence
Martin the title may not be completely deserved. He points
to the following accomplishments as evidence of a capable
leader:

-- Securing same-sex marriage legislation
-- Cutting budget deal with the NDP
-- Stealing Belinda Stronach
-- Weathering the Gomery Inquiry
-- Hiding from the Grewal Tape trap (in which a
Conservative MP recorded conversations with senior Liberals
attempting to buy his defection)
-- Emerging with a ten-point lead over the Conservatives

PM Martin has certainly held his own and is a force to be
reckoned with for the opposition.

WHAT'S NEXT?
--------------


9. (C) Parliament is set to resume on 27 September. A
rumored early recall of Parliament to discuss the softwood
lumber issue was probably never more than bluster to begin
with and, in any event, in the wake of Katrina a recall to
beat up on the U.S. would never happen. The more realistic
question is whether PM Martin will prorogue Parliament, which
ends the parliamentary session until a new session begins
including a new Throne Speech. According to political
analyst Bruce Campbell, a prorogation would have a number of
advantages for the Liberals. First, it would give the
government free advertising of its generally popular agenda
through the Throne Speech, putting the Conservatives on the
defensive in the process. Second, it would create a
confidence vote at a time when the Liberals likely have the
numbers to survive it, securing a mandate for them at the
beginning of the term. Third, it would clear the
parliamentary agenda "allowing any bills, motions, and
references to committees which the government does not want
to see proceed to 'die on the order paper."


10. (C) But this step would also be very unpopular with many
Canadians, and would make the NDP, whose mantra is "making
government work" livid. The Conservatives could also accuse
the Liberals of ducking out at a time when gas prices are sky
high and without dealing with the issues related to Ontario's
economy that have been trumpeted by Premier McGuinty for the
past year. If the PM decides to prorogue, the government
could announce it in advance, or may simply do so when
Parliament resumes.


11. (SBU) As Parliament drifts in, the numbers are as follows:

Liberals 133
NDP 19
Independent Parrish 1
Total 153 (Speaker only votes to
break a tie)

Conservatives 98
Bloq Quebecois 54
Total 152

Undecided Independents 2
David Kilgour (former Liberal but voted against the
government in last confidence vote because of frustration
over Sudan)
Pat O/Brien (former Liberal who left the caucus over same-sex
marriage issue; voted against the Government in confidence
vote)

Vacant 1
Independent Chuck Cadman died in July

Total 308

In any confidence vote the outcome would be in the hands of
the independents.


12. (C) The political alignments in Parliament are constantly
shifting and the parties will, like last year at this time,
go into the session without clear partners. The NDP
supported the Liberals through the last round of confidence
votes, but made clear that its support was conditionally tied
to the budget and would end when the budget bill was passed.
The Bloc and Conservatives have been working in concert to
bring the government down, but for wildly different reasons
and with almost no shared social or political values. In any
case, the Conservatives need to be careful not to get too
close to the Bloc because it tarnishes their nationalist
credentials. How these alignments will shift in the coming
session is an open question.

ELECTION COMING?
--------------


13. (C) In a sense, the next term will be one long election
season. PM Martin promised to hold an election 30 days after
the release of the Gomery commission final report on the
sponsorship scandal. The problem is the report's release on
December 15 would lead to an election in "deep winter," which
would be very unpopular here. Despite his assurances that he
will proceed as announced, the PM could easily get around
this by suggesting a date as early as possible in the spring
and asking the opposition parties for their support.


14. (C) Martin would most likely lead another minority
government after the election. The Liberals have gained
little ground in either Ontario or Quebec but nor have the
Conservatives. One recent poll shows the Liberals regaining
some support in Quebec, not but enough to increase their
seats. What is helping the Liberals according to Bruce
Campbell is the simple lack of traction on the part of the
Conservatives. Campbell told Poloff that this is both policy
and personality driven. The Conservatives tried to work both
problems throughout the summer, but without success in the
polls. They spent the first half of the summer trying to
make Stephen Harper look more like the normal Canadian next
door and less like a Western political wonk by putting him on
the barbeque circuit, but largely struck out. In August they
changed tactics and started to go to their traditional
strength and showcase policies, but this also largely fell
flat -- the two key issues of gas tax and child care
resonated among the faithful but did not appear to pull in
the fence sitters.

CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP - PROBLEM OR SOLUTION?
-------------- -


15. (C) The most recent Conservative issue, standing up to
the U.S. on softwood lumber by revisiting the rules of the
road in NAFTA and Canada's trade relations, could turn into a
winner on the margins. It will help the Conservatives build
in some distance from the U.S., and if they can massage the
message as one of "free trade from a position of strength,"
it will help them. But no policy issue can overcome the
aversion which Canadians in the East appear to have to
Stephen Harper. Harper has simply not been able to break
through to mainstream Canadians, especially in Ontario and
Quebec, where he comes across as out of touch. There has
been talk of party faithful convincing Harper to step down
prior to an election, but analyst Campbell believes he will
more likely ride out the next election, leaving the party to
regroup after it loses.


16. (C) Conservative MP James Moore believes that Harper's
problem is not just that he comes across aloof, wonky, and
Western, but that he is lacking in essential nationalist
credentials. What Canadians look for, Moore says, is a
leader who epitomizes the nation of Canada, and has served in
positions that are national, not regional. All recent
leaders, Chretien, Trudeau, Martin, Mulroney, were seen as
strong nationalists, who were associated with Canada, not a
specific province. While Harper has had a national profile
for the past several years, Moore believes that Canadians are
still suspicious that his heart is still in the West. He
believes the party will not succeed until Harper steps aside
and another leader, such as Bernard Lord, takes the helm.


17. (SBU) As we predicted this time last year, once again
Parliament is embarking on a largely uncharted journey, and
it is sure to be one wild ride.

Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa

WILKINS