Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05OTTAWA1681
2005-06-03 20:03:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ottawa
Cable title:  

LIBERALS AND CONSERVATIVES REGROUP, WAIT FOR THE

Tags:  PGOV CA PREL 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 OTTAWA 001681 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/05/2016
TAGS: PGOV CA PREL
SUBJECT: LIBERALS AND CONSERVATIVES REGROUP, WAIT FOR THE
NEXT ROUND

Classified By: POLMINCOUNS Brian Flora, reasons 1.4 (b) (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 OTTAWA 001681

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/05/2016
TAGS: PGOV CA PREL
SUBJECT: LIBERALS AND CONSERVATIVES REGROUP, WAIT FOR THE
NEXT ROUND

Classified By: POLMINCOUNS Brian Flora, reasons 1.4 (b) (d)


1. (C) Summary: It appears that the most likely scenario now
is an early spring election following the end of year release
of the Gomery report. Both sides have settled in for what
amounts to a 10-month campaign, with the Liberals appearing
much better organized and focused. The Conservatives
continue to struggle to develop a theme that will resonate
nationwide, and are hampered by the limitations of their
leader. End Summary

So Un-Canadian
--------------


2. (C) According to David Zussman, CEO of EKOS Research
Associates, the past few months have been very un-Canadian.
Canadians, Zussman said, like stability and are accustomed to
predictability in their political life, and hardly know what
to make of the chaos that has engulfed the political process.
From the circus-like atmosphere in Question Period to the
razor's edge survival of the government, this sort of thing
just doesn't happen here. The desire for predictability,
Zussman told us, could be what has held Canadians back from
the brink on several occasions, and is what makes it possible
to reconcile the seeming contradiction several weeks ago of
plummeting numbers for the Liberals but no desire to go to
the polls. There has been an air of relief on all sides
since the failed attempt two weeks ago to bring the
government down, and the Government and Opposition have gone
back to work to bring the current session of Parliament to a
modestly successful conclusion, while shaping the environment
for the electoral battle to come.

Winter or Spring Elections
--------------


3. (C) According to Political Analyst Bruce Campbell, the
question since PM Martin committed to calling an election 30
days after Justice Gomery issued his report, is not if but
when the election will be held. He believes the report will
be issued at the end of the year which would put the election
in late February or early March. But Liberal MP Derek Lee
from Toronto told us that an election in the dead of winter
is a non-starter in Canada -- "people can literally die
during a winter election," he said. He foresees a scenario
in which the government and opposition agree to interpret the

PM's promise liberally, and allow for the election to occur
fully into the spring. Liberal MP Francoise Boivin of Quebec
also believes something will happen to allow for a later
election -- the release of the report could be stretched out
a few more weeks for example.


4. (C) But in talking to Conservative Deputy House Leader
Jason Kenney, it is quite clear that the Conservatives want
an election just as soon as they can bring it on. Kenney
scoffed at the idea of pushing an election into the spring
just for the weather, and indicated that if the Conservatives
had the chance they would not hold back from bringing the
government down this month (although he appeared resigned to
the fact that they would not have that opportunity). Kenney
expressed intense frustration that the Liberals were able to
stave off an election last month but said the Conservatives
have not backed down. Commentator John Ivison said many
conservatives believe that "volatile public opinion polls
have underestimated Conservative support. They cite the
Labrador byelection where their share of the vote doubled in
a riding that has never been kind to the Tories." The
Conservatives remain locked and loaded.


5. (C) Derek Lee said the Liberals are not taking anything
for granted, and have thought through the possible scenarios
for a no-confidence vote this month. One is an ambush, in
which the Conservatives and Bloc gang up on the government on
a day when it isn't expecting it and push through a
no-confidence motion when there are Liberal absences. A
second is if the NDP part of the budget gets stalled and the
NDP decides the government is not pushing hard enough for the
budget and withdraws its support. And a third is if the NDP
feels it is getting too close to the Liberals and is losing
support in the process, in which case it might decide it
needs to withdraw its support to survive. Lee doesn't think
these scenarios are likely, the Liberals are on full alert
for the ambush scenario and are fully cognizant of the need
to maintain NDP support.

What Is Ahead?
--------------


6. (C) So assuming we are headed for a spring election, how
is it shaping up? Zussman says that the backdrop for the
election generally favors the Liberals. The economy is doing
well and the Parliament will be able to sufficient
legislation so that the last term will not be a complete
wash. Money and programs are flowing, and relations with the
U.S. and the world are "good enough." Gomery is grinding on
but there don't appear to be any more bombshells, and the
scandal appears to have its limits. There is growing fatigue
with sponsorship outside of Quebec.

Liberal Strategy
--------------


7. (C) Against this backdrop the Liberal strategy for the
election is fourfold. First, shore up NDP support by pushing
through the budget accord and trying to hold out something
else for the future. This is tricky, as Jack Layton said
very clearly up front that the NDP was supporting a budget,
not a government. The NDP MP from Winnipeg was even more
cutthroat recently, saying "Our compact with the Liberals is
very specific and finite -- until the budget gets Royal
Assent. After that, I for one welcome the opportunity to vote
these guys out of office and I think the chance will come
sooner rather than later." The NDP must maintain a
distinguishing distance between it and the Liberals, or it
will be swallowed as it was after the 1988 election in
Ontario, when it signed an accord with the Liberals, only to
see the Grits win by running on the record that their accord
facilitated.


8. (C) Second, the Liberals need to continue to work the
provinces, especially Ontario, with new programs and
promises. We can expect more equalization talks with Premier
McGuinty and more programs for communities and
infrastructure. Third, they must highlight the
Conservatives' "hidden social agenda" and add to it the
specter of strengthened separatism because of the
Conservative-Bloc alliance. And fourth, they need to take
some of the blame for Gomery, while showing that they remain
best positioned to clean the mess up. Boivin and Lee both
say that there is no doubt sponsorship will hurt the
Liberals, but neither saw it as crippling. Boivin said she
won her riding in Hull, Quebec, by a very narrow margin and
knows that there is rapt attention being paid to the Gomery
inquiry in Quebec which will hurt her. But she also believes
that there is limited support for separatism, and when voters
make their decision they will not just be voting against
corruption, but for something, and when they look honestly
at what the parties have achieved, the Liberals may just look
good enough.

Conservatives Seek a Theme
--------------


9. (C) The Conservatives to date have been sticking to the
corruption theme, evidenced by their intense focus this past
week on the Grewal affair in Question Period. There is no
doubt that this theme has some resonance with the Canadian
electorate and that the sponsorship scandal has damaged the
Liberal Party brand. The question is whether the damage
transfers into support for the Conservatives, and whether it
will last until the voters finally go to the polls. Jason
Kenney believes the corruption issue will remain central to
the Conservative platform, but also thinks the party needs to
develop a positive theme that will attract voters. He is
uncertain what that issue, or basket of issues will be. He
mentioned 'choice in child care' as one thing that the party
will promote (indeed it has been doing so in Question
Period). He also said the positive side of corruption --
good governance and strong oversight -- will be highlighted.
He believes health care would definitely not be a
Conservative issue, because the party position is so tainted
that it invariably would be painted into a "two-tier" corner.
And while he mentioned economic and fiscal responsibility,
he was not sure how that particular issue could be developed,
since they would be running against the architect of Canada's
budget turnaround.

Harper a Growing Liability
--------------


10. (C) In short, the Conservatives have not yet found their
footing. This is made worse by the problem of leadership.
The Conservatives are having a very difficult time shaking
the negative image that many Canadians, especially in Ontario
and Quebec, have of Stephen Harper, who Campbell believes
"engendered a fear factor in the 2004 election which the
Liberals were able to effectively exploit through negative
advertising in the closing days of the campaign." Campbell
believes frankly that as long as Harper is at the helm, the
Conservatives can't win. There are now open calls for his
resignation, with one prominent commentator saying that it is
time for Harper to recognize that he has taken the party as
far he can and pass off to someone else. Lee says that some
of his conservative colleagues have also expressed
frustration with Harper's continued leadership. But no one
we have queried sees any likelihood of Harper stepping down;
most believe the party must go through the next election
before it will have the opportunity to pick a new leader.


11. (C) To his credit, Harper faces the difficult task of
being socially and fiscally conservative enough to keep the
party's western roots happy, while appearing moderate enough
to appeal to urban Ontario and Quebec. The Stronach
defection brought this inherent Conservative schizophrenia
out in the open. While there were apparently personal
conflicts that played out and Harper clearly made some
mistakes, it was clear at the Conservative Convention that
Stronach was not comfortable in the party to begin with. Lee
believes it nonetheless sent a chilling message to women who
might have voted Conservative, to see a progressive, moderate
woman leave the party because she couldn't find a place
there. The crossing no doubt will hurt the Conservatives,
although the damage was mitigated somewhat by the flighty way
Stronach made her move.

The Kinder, Gentler Bloc
--------------


12. (C) The Bloc Quebecois meanwhile is just biding its time.
Gilles Duceppe continues to get out as much as possible to
soften the image of the Bloc from wild-eyed separatists to
the friendly Quebecers next door. But he makes no pretense
to any other platform than the full separation of Quebec from
Canada. He will continue to ride the discontent over Gomery
and milk the scandal for whatever it is worth.


13. (C) Comment: The Liberals appear to have come out of the
recent scrum on top, or at least holding their own. They are
banking on a kind of scandal fatigue setting in, which indeed
appears to be happening. Meanwhile they will continue to
deliver on the kinds of things that are genuinely popular
with the electorate. But assuming nothing unexpected
happens, there are still ten months before the election, a
very long time in the current climate.

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GALLAGHER