THE POLITICS OF CANADA'S DARFUR INVOLVEMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 001475

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DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/RPM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/14/2014
TAGS: CA PGOV EAID MARR MASS MOPS PREL SU
SUBJECT: THE POLITICS OF CANADA'S DARFUR INVOLVEMENT


Classified By: POLMINCOUNS Brian Flora 1.4 (b) (d)


1. (C/NF) Summary: In an effort to shore up support for his
tottering minority government, PM Martin gave in to the
demands of independent MP David Kilgour and accelerated the
announcement of a major increase in aid for Darfur, to
include CN $200 million and up to Canadian Forces technical
advisors in support of the AU mission. In its rush to
announce the package, however, the GOC may have neglected to
coordinate with the Government of Sudan and is now trying to
unruffle Khartoum's feathers. Kilgour, meanwhile, considers
the package inadequate, and it may have even affirmed his
reasons for leaving the Liberal Party to begin with, which
were expressed at the time as frustration with Liberal
half-steps on important issues like Sudan. We are told by
senior PCO officials that even if the government falls on
Thursday, initiatives like this that have the cabinet's
blessing are expected to go forward with funding from the
normal operating budgets of the respective ministries. End
Summary

CANADIAN SUPPORT FOR SUDAN
--------------


2. (C/NF) PM Martin announced May 12 that Canada would
significantly increase its support for international efforts
to bring peace and stability to Darfur. Included in the
package was CN $170 million in military and technical
assistance to help the African Union to fulfill its mandate,
CN $28 million of the CN $90 million announced at the April
2005 Oslo Donors' Conference for humanitarian and peace
support in Darfur and Chad through UN agencies, and enhanced
diplomatic support for the AU-led mission. The mission would
also include up to 60 military technical advisors to support
the AU force in non-combat roles. Senior members of the
Privy Council Office (protect) affirm that the government
likely would coordinate subsequent military contributions
under a NATO umbrella, if or when NATO is able to decide on
assistance to the AU. They also expect the Prime Minister to
publicly support activities coordinated by NATO.

WOOING THE INDEPENDENTS
--------------


3. (C/NF) While no one doubts that Sudan has been on the PM's
mind for a long time, the announcement was, like most of the
recent funding initiatives, geared very directly to the
survival of the government. Former Liberal and now
independent MP David Kilgour transparently tied his support
for the government in the upcoming no-confidence motion, to
whether PM Martin would agree to make a significant effort to
stop the genocide in Darfur. PM Martin's government would
need the support of all three independent MPs to survive, so
Kilgour's vote is essential. But Kilgour has argued in print
that the package does not go far enough. In an op-ed that
ran Saturday in the National Post, Kilgour said that the aid
announcement was welcome, "but unfortunately it largely
missed the key point -- to put an immediate end to the
ongoing violence across the Sudanese region." For this,
Kilgour said, quoting an estimate of Senator Romero Dallaire,
"there is a need for 40,000 peacekeepers." He criticized the
PM's paltry offering, saying "PM Martin's commitment of no
more than 100 peacekeepers for Darfur is anything but
leadership." Kilgour is also quoted by the Globe and Mail's
Hugh Winsor as saying "I'm hoping against hope that Martin
will do the right thing and live up to the Pearsonian
tradition that we all espoused and the world expects of us.
But if the Prime Minister is going to wimp out, then I have
lost all faith in him."

LACK OF COORDINATION WITH SUDAN
--------------


4. (SBU) Piling on to the GOC's lack of support from Mr.
Kilgour were a series of statements over the weekend by
Sudanese Ambassador to Canada Faiza Hassan Taha. Taha told
reporters that "this plan has never been consulted or
negotiated with the government of Sudan," and while she
suggested that the Government of Sudan welcomed the provision
of aid, also said it firmly objected to non-African soldiers
in Darfur. "We are not going to refuse any help which we
think we need. But we want to be there, in the picture, to
participate fully as a government. This is an agreement
between the African Union and Sudan. The African Union
should be given the chance and should be given the
opportunity to develop its own capacity in dealing with
African problems." She reiterated that the 60 Canadian
military advisors should not be sent to Darfur, much less the
500 or so that Mr. Kilgour was suggesting.

5. (SBU) FAC issued a press release on May 13 which confirmed
that Canada remains in close and constant contact with the AU
and the Government of Sudan with respect to its engagements
in Darfur. A senior FAC official said that the issue was one
of coordination with the Government of Sudan and the Canadian
government would take the appropriate measures to ensure that
the aid was properly administered. Foreign Affairs
Opposition critic Stockwell Day queried the FM and DefMin on
the question of coordination with Sudan and asked about a
report that the military advisors would be unarmed in
Question Period May 16. FM Pettigrew responded that FM
Martin had personally spoken with Sudanese President Bashir
on May 11, and that Canada has made full coordination of its
assistance package with the UN, the United States, and NATO
HQ. Defense Minister Graham reminded Mr. Day that he had
been in a committee meeting that morning when General Hillier
told the MPs that he had been in the region recently and was
well aware of what the African Union needs and the Canadian
forces would only be there to provide back-up and support to
the AU force. He said the Canadian soldiers would have the
proper protection for the tasks that they would be
performing.

CHANGE OF GOVERNMENT COMING?
--------------


6. (C/NF) Looming over the Darfur operation of course, is the
fact that the government could fall on May 19, if it loses
the no-confidence vote over the budget. PolMilCouns queried
Tony Burger (protect),a senior foreign policy advisor at the
Privy Council about what this would mean for Canada's support
for Darfur. Burger said the Darfur aid package was approved
by the cabinet so it can be funded with current monies in
advance of passage of the new budget. In the event the
government falls, Burger said, the aid package could still go
forward with funding from the various ministry's normal
operating budgets. He acknowledged that there had been
problems with the Government of Sudan over the package, but
said that Canada was working through the AU to resolve them.


7. (C/NF) Comment: As the Globe's Hugh Winsor put it, "only
in Canada could the fate of the Paul Martin government be
riding on a rebellion and refugee crisis in a bereft region
of Africa that many Canadians have never heard of." Such,
though, is the strange nature of minority government,
especially one whose survival hangs by such a narrow margin.
And yet ironically, it was the difficulty of getting things
done in a minority government that probably stopped Martin
from doing more for Sudan earlier. It is the most obvious
place to test his "responsibility to protect" doctrine, which
is at the centerpiece of the PM's foreign policy. Like much
of the spending that is ongoing, Kilgour gave the PM the
opportunity to do something he would like to do anyway. We
agree with the PCO that independent of how the vote goes on
Thursday, some increase in support for Darfur will survive --
the Conservatives have been pushing the government to do more
for Darfur for over a year. But there is also no question
that many programs would be scaled back or delayed until
after the elections as the new government sorts itself out.
The initiation of a high-risk peacekeeping mission would be
an obvious place for caution and delay.

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DICKSON