Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05NEWDELHI9750
2005-12-27 12:21:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy New Delhi
Cable title:  

GOI TURNING PESSIMISTS ON NEPAL

Tags:  PREL KDEM PTER MASS IN NP CH 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 009750 

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/26/2015
TAGS: PREL KDEM PTER MASS IN NP CH
SUBJECT: GOI TURNING PESSIMISTS ON NEPAL

REF: NEW DELHI 9484

Classified By: A/DCM Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 009750

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/26/2015
TAGS: PREL KDEM PTER MASS IN NP CH
SUBJECT: GOI TURNING PESSIMISTS ON NEPAL

REF: NEW DELHI 9484

Classified By: A/DCM Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary. GOI officials told us on December 27 that
developments in Kathmandu since Foreign Secretary Saran's
early December visit have made them less hopeful of a
resolution any time soon to the continued political stalemate
in Nepal. Hardening of the positions of both the Palace and
the political parties makes reconciliation difficult, and the
GOI fears that the Maoist cease-fire may not be extended past
January 3. The GOI intends to maintain for now its embargo
on lethal military supplies, and does not expect to revisit
the issue until after the February 8 local elections. End
Summary.

Palace Not Budging
--------------


2. (C) MEA Joint Secretary (North) Pankaj Saran told A/DCM
and Poloff that despite FS Saran's "frank" conversation with
King Gyanendra on December 13 and the monarch's vague
reassurances (reftel) that he would take helpful steps in the
near future, recent signs from Kathmandu suggest that the
Palace has not taken New Delhi's message to heart. The FS
told Gyanendra that India is not opposed to monarchy, but
wants to assist Gyanendra in preserving the institution. For
this, the King must take the initiative back from the Maoists
and political parties by offering a political solution to the
current stalemate, the J/S reported. FS Saran had told the
King that he cannot afford to play politics at the same level
as the parties and the Maoists if he wishes to retain his
position, but rather must rise above politics and lead in
finding a solution.


3. (C) Unfortunately, J/S Saran continued, since that
audience, Council of Ministers Vice-chairman Tulsi Giri gave
a "hard-line and unhelpful" press conference that "ruled out
any settlement" with the political parties. One of the
vice-chairs (NFI) had also told the GOI that the RNA "has
broken the backs of the Maoists," suggesting HMGN feels
little pressure to compromise. Saran added that the GOI
certainly does not share that "dangerous assumption."


And Other Positions Solidifying
--------------


4. (C) After Giri's public rejection of the idea that the
King would reach out, Maoist leaders Prachanda and Bhattarai
then laid out a plan of action for continuing their
anti-monarchy campaign, Saran said, followed by the recent
combined political party statement of plans to "disrupt" and
"boycott" the Palace-sponsored municipal elections in
February 2006. The back-and-forth has led to a palpable
"increase of the political temperature" in Kathmandu that is
not conducive to the reconciliation scenario the GOI would
like to see between the Palace and the political parties.

GOI Sticking to its Guns
--------------


5. (C) New Delhi has no plans to review its suspension of
lethal military assistance, Saran said, and still believes
that "some initiative by the monarch" could help reconcile
the monarchy and the political parties to form a united front
against the Maoists. Although India will have to see what
happens through the "political jostling" among all three
sides to the tussle leading up to the municipal elections on
February 8, it is important to continue the present policies
at least until then, he added. Referring to a recent Wall
Street Journal op-ed by Robert Kaplan, Saran expressed worry
about the prospect that the US could soften its line on
military assistance. A/DCM noted our clear signals to the
Palace that Nepal needs to move back towards democracy if we
are to normalize our military assistance relationship.


6. (C) What happens next will depend on whether the
political parties can translate their goals into a show of
support on the ground, Saran predicted. If they can prove
that they represent the wishes of the people of Nepal, that
will make a powerful statement to the government in favor of
re-establishing democracy, he said. The GOI has told the
political parties to avoid violence in its campaigns, but New
Delhi does not yet know how the parties plan to deal with the
elections, Saran added. The municipal elections are only
planned in 58 municipalities in any case, and thus will not
be a good indicator of what the rural population thinks, he
observed. He was unsure whether the GOI would offer any
comment on the polls.
Uncertainty on Maoist cease-fire
--------------


7. (C) Saran said that New Delhi has "some indications" that
the Maoists may be unwilling to renew their voluntary
cease-fire when it expires on January 3. Additionally, the
King's ministers have made public statements rubbishing the
idea of a government cease-fire, although India has pointed
out that such a move would help seize the initiative, Saran
reported. New Delhi remains concerned about Maoist
intentions, he continued, adding that "the objective of our
Nepal policy" is dealing with the Maoist threat, particularly
in light of official concern about collaboration between
Nepalese Maoists and Indian insurgents.

China Card is Ineffective
--------------


8. (C) Although the Indian Parliament has discussed the
"China issue," both India and China realize that none will
gain from a game of influence in Nepal, Saran said. The
Foreign Secretary told HMGN that there is no gain from
playing either the China or Pakistan card, although it has
been hyped in the media, Saran added. He expected the
Foreign Secretary to reiterate this view when he travels to
Beijing in early January for border talks.

Comment: Still Focused on the Big Picture
--------------


9. (C) Saran's comments, although pessimistic on the
potential for the Palace to change course, included welcome
reassurances that the GOI has not lost sight of the continued
threat of a Maoist resurgence even while tacitly condoning
the current political party-Maoist alignment. To New Delhi,
the juxtaposition of royal reassurances to the Foreign
Secretary of imminent positive steps, followed by negative

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signs and statements from Kathmandu, looks like a repeat of
Gyanendra's about-face after meeting PM Singh in Jakarta last
April. Skepticism in New Delhi is now entrenched even among
earlier supporters of the Palace, and there are few voices
calling for Indian backing of the monarchy.


10. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website:
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/)
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