INDIA WILL TAKE STOCK OF IRAQ OPTIONS AFTER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 009223

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/06/2015
TAGS: PREL KDEM PINR IN IZ
SUBJECT: INDIA WILL TAKE STOCK OF IRAQ OPTIONS AFTER
ELECTIONS (C-NE5-00945)

REF: A. STATE 220728

B. STATE 218793

C. NEW DELHI 8627

D. NEW DELHI 8535

Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: PolCouns shared Ref A points with MEA Joint
Secretary (Gulf) Sanjay Singh on December 7, continuing a

SIPDIS
December 6 discussion on India's objectives and perspectives
in the Middle East (septel). New Delhi is waiting to see the
outcome of the December polls in Iraq before deciding on its
next steps with Baghdad, but would probably send a delegation
to Baghdad after the formation of a new government, and hopes
to restart discussions on cooperation in the oil industry.
Although the oil voucher scam dominates discussion of Iraq,
New Delhi recognizes the need to engage the new Iraqi
government and contribute to its success. Singh was
surprisingly positive in his assessment of the upcoming
elections, echoing public comments by GOI Middle East Envoy C
Gharekhan welcoming the December 15 polls as "leading to the
formation of a truly representative government." End Summary.

Elections Signal More "Normal" Politics
--------------


2. (C) Singh welcomed the December 15 elections, commenting
that after a period of "extraordinary" events in Iraq, the
polls signify that politics is "becoming a normal process"
now. However, to observers like him in New Delhi, the
outcome is a mystery, he admitted, adding that the GOI will
wait and "take stock" of the new government after the
elections. Both Singh and Indian West Asia Envoy C Gharekhan
would likely visit Baghdad after the formation of a
government post-elections, he predicted, but uncertainty in
the election outcome could delay such a visit. Singh's
comments echoed remarks by Gharekhan at the Gulf Security
Conference in Bahrain on December 4, where he said that the
December 15 elections would "lead to the formation of a truly
representative government."


3. (C) Iraqi Oil Minister Mohammad Bahr al-Ulum's decision
to join a new party likely will lead to a new Oil Minister in
the new government, Singh speculated. While this would delay
New Delhi's plans to reconstitute the Indo-Iraq Joint
Commission to discuss Indian participation in the Iraqi oil
industry (Ref C),it may prove beneficial as it means a
chance that the GOI would deal with only one oil minister for
the next four years. India's Ministry of Petroleum maintains
contacts with Iraq's Oil Ministry, and has arranged spot
purchases of the limited Iraqi oil that comes up for sale,
Singh said. "We'd like to get back" to the pre-2000
situation where India was one of Iraq's largest oil
purchasers, he added.

Indian Training Underway
--------------


4. (C) India has assistance programs underway in the form of
technical training for workers in Iraq's oil sector, Singh
reported, at a program cost of approximately $545,000 to
$650,000. Two hundred Iraqi trainees will enroll in the next
five months in programs across India in subjects as varied as
oil field management, environmental protection, compressor
maintenance, and logistics management. After PolCouns asked
whether India would replicate its parliamentary assistance to
Afghanistan, Singh replied that New Delhi has no roadmap for
assistance, but is ready to respond to Iraqi requests,
drawing from India's untapped assistance fund. After the
elections, he mused, the Iraqi government should have more
capacity to look outside and consider such assistance
programs.

Oil Vouchers Team in Baghdad
--------------

5. (C) Singh conveyed a GOI request (originally made by the
Foreign Secretary) that the USG facilitate the visit to
Baghdad (starting December 7) of a team from India's
Enforcement Directorate probing alleged involvement of Indian
politicians in taking oil allocations from Saddam's regime.
He remarked that MEA was staying as far away as possible from
the Oil-for-Food scandal.

Comment: Post-Natwar, New Delhi Ready To Make Up
-------------- ---


6. (C) Singh's deliberate repetition of New Delhi's view
that the polls will be part of "normal" politics signals the
GOI's desire to recover from disgraced FM Natwar Singh's
blast that Iraq's government had no credibility (Ref D),and
suggests that New Delhi will be supportive of the new Iraqi
government post-December 15. Although he made no specific
commitment to a GOI public statement following the elections,
we expect the GOI will do so, building on its welcome of the
October constitutional referendum. However, the Natwar
scandal continues to overshadow all discussion of Iraq in New
Delhi, and has already forced the postponement of Gharekhan's
visit to Baghdad earlier this fall. Nevertheless, strategic
thinkers in the MEA and GOI recognize that India's long-term
interests are well-served by engagement with the new Iraqi
government, and we anticipate that after the oil scam blows
over, New Delhi will rise to the challenge and seek the
occasion for a meaningful contribution to Iraq's
reconstruction and recovery.


7. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website:
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/)
MULFORD