GOI "CONSTRUCTIVELY ENGAGED" IN BURMA, UPBEAT ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 009080

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PTER BG BM IN SA
SUBJECT: GOI "CONSTRUCTIVELY ENGAGED" IN BURMA, UPBEAT ON
BANGLADESH


Classified By: PolCouns Geoffrey Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: MEA J/S (Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Myanmar)
Mohan Kumar was candid about India's need to continue
engaging in Burma and optimistic that PM Singh had begun to
"clear the air" during his bilateral meeting with President
Zia in Bangladesh. Acknowledging Indian competition with the
Chinese presence in Burma, Kumar characterized the evolving
relationship as "constructive engagement." Kumar was equally
puzzled about the recent relocation of Burma's capital, but
offered Indian theories on the move, including fears of
intelligence penetration in Rangoon or a power battle between
State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) Chairman Than Shwe
and Vice-Chairman Maung Aye. Regarding the November 12
bilateral meeting between PM Singh and President Zia on the
sidelines of the South Asian Association for Regional
Cooperation (SAARC) Summit, Kumar told us that most important
result of the meeting was to "clear the air" between the
heads of state. The two leaders did not cover much
substantive ground, he reported, but the Indian PM had
stressed that he and Zia should "cut through the red tape"
together when problems between Delhi and Dhaka arise. End
Summary.

Burmese Engagement: Constructive or Just Competitive?
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2. (C) In a November 23 meeting on regional issues, Joint
Secretary for Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Myanmar Mohan Kumar

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was open about India's need to compete with Chinese presence
in Burma and characterized Delhi's growing ties with Rangoon
(and now Pyinmana),as "constructive engagement." To counter
Chinese influence in Burma, "India needs to be there," he
postured, and this provides an added incentive for GOI
infrastructure projects throughout the country. In response
to PolCouns' hope that India is using its relationship to
lead Burma in a direction which reflects our common values,
Kumar commented that "India does raise these (democracy)
issues." However, he observed that it is difficult to tell
how their Burmese counterparts respond to these statements,
since they tend to "read from a script" at meetings and are
clearly worried about saying anything out of line.


3. (C) Kumar offered several theories on the recent
relocation of the Burmese capital, arguing that it was the
work of a schizophrenic leader rather than a further sign of
regime hardening. After joking that the move was taken in
response to fears of a US invasion, he compared it to the
ancient Mughal ruler Tughlak's equally unpopular relocation
of the Indian capital. He commented that there was no good
explanation, but offered two theories. Either Chairman Than
Shwe was worried that Rangoon had been "penetrated" or the
SPDC leader was embroiled in a battle with Vice-Chairman
Maung Aye. He repeated a rumor that Aye had protested the
bizarre idea of relocating the capital, which served as a
"trigger to move." He rejected the theory that it was a
further sign of hardening in Burma, and described it as the
work of a "paranoid" leader in an "act of desperation."

PM Singh "Clears the Air" in Dhaka
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4. (C) Turning to Prime Minister Singh's November 12
bilateral meeting with Bangladeshi President Khaleda Zia on
the sidelines of the SAARC Summit, Kumar was optimistic that
the meeting would further New Delhi's campaign for increased
high-level contact with Dhaka. Singh and Zia had a "very
pleasant" meeting for about twenty-five minutes, but "did not
cover much substantive ground." During the meeting, the
Indian PM stressed the importance of good bilateral relations
by promising that he would personally "cut through the
bureaucratic red tape together" to solve any disputes between
the two neighbors. Most significantly, it was "positive that
high level contacts with Bangladesh had been initiated and
sustained." He hoped this meeting would begin to repair the
damage left by hurt feelings over India's decision to cancel
the February 2005 SAARC Summit.

Comment: India Getting Practical With Tough Neighbors
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5. (C) What was striking about Kumar's comments was the
GOI's practical take on how to manage relations to the east.
Rather than squabbling over its inability to get tangible
results from Zia or decrying the negative effects of Chinese
presence in Burma, India is rolling up its sleeves and
looking for practical ways to further its interests. MEA is
still hopeful that sustained, high-level contacts with Dhaka
will eventually elicit better communication and cooperation.
In Burma, its engagement has produced arrangements on
infrastructure, energy security and anti-insurgency
cooperation. We will continue to urge the GOI also to use
its influence to emphasize human rights and encourage Burma
in the right direction.


6. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website:
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/)
MULFORD