INDIAN REPORTS BREAKTHROUGH IN BHUTAN/NEPAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 008893

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREF PHUM PTER IN NP BT
SUBJECT: INDIAN REPORTS BREAKTHROUGH IN BHUTAN/NEPAL
REFUGEE TALKS, DISCUSSES ULFA TERRORISTS

Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: The agreement reached in Dhaka between the
RGOB and GON to restart the Joint Verification Process and
allow for the return of Category 1 and 4 refugees from the
Khudunabari refugee camp was a significant and positive step,
outgoing MEA Joint Secretary (North) Ranjit Rae told PolCouns
and PolOff during a November 22 meeting. Incoming Joint
Secretary (North) Prakaj Saran noted that Kathmandu's recent

SIPDIS
acceptance of possible third country resettlement is a
welcome and noticeable change in its position. Rae and
Saran agreed that monitoring of refugees that return to
Bhutan will be problematic, due to the RGOB's distrust of
UNHCR. The GON has not raised the refugee issue with the GOI
since February 2005, while the RGOB discusses the issue
regularly with the MEA, Rae noted. Thimphu does not view the
Friends of Bhutan group, consisting of a number of European
countries, to be true friends, Saran remarked. Rae commented
that Bhutan and India are determined to keep United
Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) terrorists out of Bhutan,
acknowledging that the group has made attempts to set up new
camps in the Himalayan Kingdom. The GOI is raising a new
Special Security Bureau (SSB) Force to patrol Indian's
Northeast borders with Bhutan, Nepal and Bangladesh. Rae
stated the GOI has no information on the Bhutanese Census
conducted in May 2005, and agreed any use of the census to
launch another round of ethnic readjustment would be
unacceptable. End Summary.

Dhaka Talks Productive
--------------


2. (C) Talks between Bhutanese Foreign Minister Wangchuk and
Nepalese King Gyanendra during the SAARC Summit on November
12-13 were positive and the two sides agreed to the
repatriation of Category 1 and 4 refugees from the
Khudunabari Camp and to re-starting the stalled Joint
Verification Team process, Ranjit Rae reported in a November
22 meeting with PolCouns and PolOff. Rae commented that it
was significant in that Bhutan and Nepal reached this
agreement, although Nepal was still reluctant to make the
declaration public. Nepal's willingness to discuss
solutions not completely ruled by the Joint Ministerial
Meetings guidelines, such as resettlement, shows a welcome
flexibility in Kathmandu's position, Saran argued. Rae
reiterated that the GOI's official position is that a
bilateral solution to the problem is the best way forward,
but suggested that in private diplomatic interactions India
was continuing to press for a solution.

Bhutan Discusses Refugees, Nepal Does Not
--------------


3. (C) While the RGOB regularly discusses the refugee issue
with the MEA, the GON has not broached the topic with the MEA
since February 2005, Rae stated. Saran, who served at the
GOI's mission to Geneva and appeared well versed on the
refugee issue, added that the GON's position in Geneva has
not been positive regarding any plans that include
third-country resettlement. He theorized that the GON fears
third-country resettlement would eventually lead to
large-scale local integration, which is Kathmandu's main
concern regarding the refugees. PolOff noted that if
resettlement countries acknowledged a willingness to accept
refugees and offered general numbers of how many each country
might be willing to take, it could ease the GON's fear that
they will be left "holding the bag." Saran agreed that this
could help ease Nepal's worries, but commented that the GON
is still largely focused on the law and order situation in
the country, and other issues, specifically the refugees,
receive less attention.

Thimphu Wary of Monitors
--------------


4. (C) The issue of international monitoring of the eventual
repatriation of refugees to Bhutan could also be problematic,
noted Rae. The RGOB does not trust UNHCR and will not allow
the group to fulfill its traditional monitoring role. Rae
commented that the UNHCR has vetoed the idea of using UNDP,
which has an extensive presence in Bhutan and good relations
with the government, in that monitor role. He added that
UNDP also does not want to take on the added responsibility,
as this endeavor is not in its charter. Saran noted his
impression out of Geneva is that Thimphu does not consider
the Friends of Bhutan group to be true friends, as it does
not always have Bhutan's best interest at heart. (Note: The
Friends of Bhutan group consists of: Switzerland, Denmark,
Sweden, Norway, the Netherlands, Finland and Austria. End
Note.)

ULFA: Keep Out!
--------------


5. (C) Bhutan and India are committed to keeping ULFA out of
Bhutan, Rae asserted, adding that he had discussed this issue
during a recent visit to Thimphu that included calls on the
King and Foreign Minister. Rae acknowledged that the GOI has
received some intelligence reports that the ULFA terrorist
group has attempted to encamp in Bhutan, but has been
unsuccessful. Rae told us that the GOI is in the process of
raising a new SSB force, reporting to the Home Ministry, that
would patrol its borders with Bhutan, Nepal and Bangladesh.
He concluded that the GOI "must be very vigilant along these
borders."

No News on the Census
--------------


6. (C) Regarding a recent report from the Human Rights
Organization of Bhutan, which stated the May 2005 Census
results have identified 125,000 non-nationals living in
Bhutan, Rae told us that the GOI has not received any such
information. However, he suggested that we should monitor
this very carefully to ensure there is never a repeat of the
expulsion that occurred in the early 1990s.
BLAKE